1. The Polls in 2010: Questions and Queries
John Curtice
Strathclyde University

2. Old Controversies Could the polls overcome the pro-Labour bias?
Time to shift from the phone to the internet?

3. Average Poll Error

4. Trying to fix the problem
The end of face to face quota polls
Take account of differential turnout
Try to estimate ‘shy Tories’
More subtle and appropriate demographics
Weight by past vote/party id/propensity scores

5. YouGov and The Rest 2005

6. New Challenges
Far more polls than ever before (over 90, 2x 2005) including polls every day
Three new internet players (plus a face to face probability poll)
Instant post-leader debate polls
An unprecedented Lib Dem surge

7. A unanimous verdict?

8. How the Campaign developed

9. The Record of the Final Polls

10. Phone vs. Internet

11. New vs. Old

12. The Shock of the Night!

13. Again!

14. The Sessions Methods and Modes Did respondents do what they said?
The Leader Debate Polls
The Exit Poll

15. Thanks
NCRM
BPC
Speakers
Lord Lipsey