1. Nathan Grawe Carleton College ngrawe@carleton.edu @nathan_d_grawe
Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education: Observations for the Minnesota State System
Nathan Grawe Carleton
You take leadership roles for the tough days, not the easy ones.

2. Net Migration between Census Divisions among Children
Ages 2 to 17, 2015 to 2016
Persistent trends
Migration draining New England, Middle Atlantic, and East North Central.
MN small in/out migration depending on year

3. MN more a destination than WI or IA...but we aren’t CA or TX or NY!

4. Fertility higher among minorities—largely driven by Hispanic fertility rates (and rising population share of non-whites)

5. Total Fertility Rate per 1000 Women, 2007
Geographic patterns amplify other demographic trends
Blues>replacement
Reds<replacement
Deep blue is 5%>replacement rate
Lightest orange is 5% to 10% under
Darkest orange is 15% to 20% under
Look at northeast defy the boom in fertility!
MN took part, tho (TFR=2150)
VT is lowest at 1715—more than 18% below replacement (remember that)
Source: National Vital Statistics Reports Vol. 58, no. 24

6. Total Fertility Rate Per 1000 Women
Precipitated by GR, down about 17%
Source: National Vital Statistics Reports Vol. 67, no. 1

7. Total Fertility Rate per 1000 Women, 2017
Geographic patterns amplify other demographic trends
Same legend
New category! More than 20% below replacement!
12 states post TFR<1715, (VT in 2007, the least fertile at that date)
MN TFR=1762 (US=1765), so we continue to be about average.
Source: National Vital Statistics Reports Vol. 67, no. 8

8. Projected Change in Numbers of High-School Graduates, 2012 to 2028
Projected Number of High School Graduates,
Result:
Steady stream of Chronicle articles, largely written from WICHE forecasts of high school grads
Jan 2014 Chronicle spread focus on population:
“Colleges, Here is Your Future”
“Until just a few years ago, colleges could anticipate classes of high-school graduates each bigger than the last….But those days are over”
John McGee’s (2016) Breakpoint: “Bienvenido al Futuro de los Estados Unidos”
New England: -20%
East North Central: -15%
Question: Are headcounts the right way to think about future demand for higher education?
Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (2012)

9. Question: Are headcounts the right way to think about future demand for higher education?

10. Probability of attending four-year college or university:
Example:
Person A: Asian-American woman living in Boston with both parents who each hold a BA and earn $125,000
Person B: Hispanic man living in rural California with his mother who holds no degree and earns $40,000
Probability of attending four-year college or university:
Person A = 96%
Person B = 9%
Probability of attending four-year college or university ranked
among top 50:
Person A = 73%
Person B = 2%
Illustrative example—yes, chosen to make the point, but not strictly the most extreme comparison I could have made.
[click] Prob(4-yr attendance)
[click] Prob(top-50 4-yr attendance)
Clearly headcounts are of questionable value for any institution. For national schools, this is even more true than for a regional schools.
Note: variation in 2-yr attendance across demo groups is modest. Variation is heavily a 4-year phenomenon.

11. Basic Concept: Probability-weighted demand forecasts v
The HEDI Model
Basic Concept: Probability-weighted demand forecasts v
Population increasing by 17%
Probability of attendance = 17%
Headcounts from ACS
Probs from ELS
ELS ~16,000 HS sophomores in 2002
ACS: 1-in-100 sample of US (questions of former census long form)
Note: variables in probability model limited by intersection of the two surveys.
Restricted portion of ELS gives me access to specific institutions of attendance so that I can estimate class-specific probabilities of attendance.
Probability of attendance = 100%

12. College attendance patterns are stable
Key Assumptions
College attendance patterns are stable
Migration and immigration patterns are stable
Counter-example: 1980s enrollments
Increased college wage premium: from 20% to 60%
Projections, not predictions
All fall under “future will be like the recent past”
What to make of 1980s
Yes, the world can be unpredictable
But the change to skill-premium is very much an exception, not a rule. Stable and 1990-present
And remember, things can change to make attendance rates fall, too (eg online, PSEO)

13. Forecasted growth in students who will attend a two-year institution, 2018 to 2029 
Note correlation with WICHE data

14. Forecasted growth in students who will attend a regional
four-year institution, 2018 to 2029 
A bit worse than population and 2-year predictions.

15. Forecasted growth in students who will attend a national
four-year institution, 2018 to 2029 

16. Forecasted growth in students who will attend a elite four-
year institution, 2018 to 2029 

17. Race/ethnicity distribution of students attending four-year institutions, 2018 and 2029
Changing campus composition: race/ethnicity.
More pronounced change at elite institutions.
Hispanic rise is more about 2yr & regional 4yr
National/elite market diversity increase is more about Asian Americans
West North Central regional 4-yr looks less pronounced in size of change to what is shown here
West North Central 2-yr looks much like this (in terms of per pt changes—tho we are less diverse than nation)

18. Parental education distribution of students attending four-year institutions, 2018 and 2029
Changing campus composition: parent education
In W N Central, shift away from no-BA is more pronounced for 2-yr and much more pronounced for regional 4-yrs (we’ve succeeded to a greater degree in the parent generation!)