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Nathan Grawe Carleton College ngrawe@carleton.edu @nathan_d_grawe Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education: Observations for the Minnesota State.

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Presentation on theme: "Nathan Grawe Carleton College ngrawe@carleton.edu @nathan_d_grawe Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education: Observations for the Minnesota State."— Presentation transcript:

1 Nathan Grawe Carleton College ngrawe@carleton.edu @nathan_d_grawe
Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education: Observations for the Minnesota State System Nathan Grawe Carleton You take leadership roles for the tough days, not the easy ones.

2 Net Migration between Census Divisions among Children
Ages 2 to 17, 2015 to 2016 Persistent trends Migration draining New England, Middle Atlantic, and East North Central. MN small in/out migration depending on year

3 MN more a destination than WI or IA...but we aren’t CA or TX or NY!

4 Fertility higher among minorities—largely driven by Hispanic fertility rates (and rising population share of non-whites)

5 Total Fertility Rate per 1000 Women, 2007
Geographic patterns amplify other demographic trends Blues>replacement Reds<replacement Deep blue is 5%>replacement rate Lightest orange is 5% to 10% under Darkest orange is 15% to 20% under Look at northeast defy the boom in fertility! MN took part, tho (TFR=2150) VT is lowest at 1715—more than 18% below replacement (remember that) Source: National Vital Statistics Reports Vol. 58, no. 24

6 Total Fertility Rate Per 1000 Women
Precipitated by GR, down about 17% Source: National Vital Statistics Reports Vol. 67, no. 1

7 Total Fertility Rate per 1000 Women, 2017
Geographic patterns amplify other demographic trends Same legend New category! More than 20% below replacement! 12 states post TFR<1715, (VT in 2007, the least fertile at that date) MN TFR=1762 (US=1765), so we continue to be about average. Source: National Vital Statistics Reports Vol. 67, no. 8

8 Projected Change in Numbers of High-School Graduates, 2012 to 2028
Projected Number of High School Graduates, Result: Steady stream of Chronicle articles, largely written from WICHE forecasts of high school grads Jan 2014 Chronicle spread focus on population: “Colleges, Here is Your Future” “Until just a few years ago, colleges could anticipate classes of high-school graduates each bigger than the last….But those days are over” John McGee’s (2016) Breakpoint: “Bienvenido al Futuro de los Estados Unidos” New England: -20% East North Central: -15% Question: Are headcounts the right way to think about future demand for higher education? Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (2012)

9 Question: Are headcounts the right way to think about future demand for higher education?

10 Probability of attending four-year college or university:
Example: Person A: Asian-American woman living in Boston with both parents who each hold a BA and earn $125,000 Person B: Hispanic man living in rural California with his mother who holds no degree and earns $40,000 Probability of attending four-year college or university: Person A = 96% Person B = 9% Probability of attending four-year college or university ranked among top 50: Person A = 73% Person B = 2% Illustrative example—yes, chosen to make the point, but not strictly the most extreme comparison I could have made. [click] Prob(4-yr attendance) [click] Prob(top-50 4-yr attendance) Clearly headcounts are of questionable value for any institution. For national schools, this is even more true than for a regional schools. Note: variation in 2-yr attendance across demo groups is modest. Variation is heavily a 4-year phenomenon.

11 Basic Concept: Probability-weighted demand forecasts v
The HEDI Model Basic Concept: Probability-weighted demand forecasts v Population increasing by 17% Probability of attendance = 17% Headcounts from ACS Probs from ELS ELS ~16,000 HS sophomores in 2002 ACS: 1-in-100 sample of US (questions of former census long form) Note: variables in probability model limited by intersection of the two surveys. Restricted portion of ELS gives me access to specific institutions of attendance so that I can estimate class-specific probabilities of attendance. Probability of attendance = 100%

12 College attendance patterns are stable
Key Assumptions College attendance patterns are stable Migration and immigration patterns are stable Counter-example: 1980s enrollments Increased college wage premium: from 20% to 60% Projections, not predictions All fall under “future will be like the recent past” What to make of 1980s Yes, the world can be unpredictable But the change to skill-premium is very much an exception, not a rule. Stable and 1990-present And remember, things can change to make attendance rates fall, too (eg online, PSEO)

13 Forecasted growth in students who will attend a two-year institution, 2018 to 2029 
Note correlation with WICHE data

14 Forecasted growth in students who will attend a regional
four-year institution, 2018 to 2029  A bit worse than population and 2-year predictions.

15 Forecasted growth in students who will attend a national
four-year institution, 2018 to 2029 

16 Forecasted growth in students who will attend a elite four-
year institution, 2018 to 2029 

17 Race/ethnicity distribution of students attending four-year institutions, 2018 and 2029
Changing campus composition: race/ethnicity. More pronounced change at elite institutions. Hispanic rise is more about 2yr & regional 4yr National/elite market diversity increase is more about Asian Americans West North Central regional 4-yr looks less pronounced in size of change to what is shown here West North Central 2-yr looks much like this (in terms of per pt changes—tho we are less diverse than nation)

18 Parental education distribution of students attending four-year institutions, 2018 and 2029
Changing campus composition: parent education In W N Central, shift away from no-BA is more pronounced for 2-yr and much more pronounced for regional 4-yrs (we’ve succeeded to a greater degree in the parent generation!)


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