1. Not Great, But Better Than Anyone Else
Dale Orr
Managing Director, Canadian Macro Economic Service
Global Insight (Canada) Ltd.

2. Monetary Policy Issues
Outline
The Economic Forecast
Monetary Policy Issues
12/25/2018

3. The March 2003 Economic Forecast for Canada (Percent)
2002
2003
2004
Real GDP
3.4
2.8
3.6
Employment growth
2.2
2.3
1.7
Unemployment rate
7.6
7.4
7.0
CPI Inflation
2.7
1.5
3-month T-bills
2.6
3.3
4.8
Canadian dollar (U.S. cents)
63.7
67.0
70.4
12/25/2018

4. Canada vs. U.S. Growth %
12/25/2018

5. Cyclical Growth Pattern%
12/25/2018

6. Inflation: Recent Problems
(year over year, percent) %
12/25/2018

7. Inflation: Credibility
(year over year, percent) %
12/25/2018

8. Interest Rates: Widening Gap
(3-month T-bill rate, percent) %
12/25/2018

9. Interest Rates: Medium Term
(3-month T-bill rate, percent) %
12/25/2018

10. Canadian Dollar: Medium Term
12/25/2018

11. Canadian Dollar: Short Term
12/25/2018

12. Monetary Policy Choice
Arguments for Raising Rates Now
Arguments for Waiting
Implications of Raising Rates
12/25/2018

13. Canadian Dollar Analysis
Why Has the Dollar Strengthened This Year?
Where Is The Dollar Going and Why?
12/25/2018