1. Crisis Management, Risk Management, and HRO: Crisis Management, Risk Management, and HRO: An Overview Ian I. Mitroff Ian I. Mitroff University Professor University Professor Marshall Goldsmith School of Management Adjunct Professor Adjunct Professor College of Environmental Design and Senior Research Associate Center for Catastrophic Risk Management and Senior Research Associate Center for Catastrophic Risk Management UC Berkeley President Comprehensive Crisis Management Mitroff © 2011

2. Crisis Management Risk Management HRO Emergency Preparedness Disaster Management Crisis Communications Business Continuity

3. Risk Management: Probability of a Disaster TIMES Its Consequences 100 Tosses of a Coin 50 Heads x (-2$) 50 Tails x (+4$) +100$ On Average

4. Risk Management: Risk Management: Knowledge of the Probabilities of Events Knowledge of the Consequences Cut-off/Threshold Appearance of Scientific Rigor/Rationality

5. HRO: Where Unsafe Practices Lead to Mega Disasters Safe Operations/Constant Reviews Safety Culture Constant Training Reward Systems Physical Risks

6. Crisis Management: Broad Set of Potential Crises Precursors Damage Containment Defense Mechanisms Stakeholders CEO/Board Support Doesnt Focus As Much As HRO Does On Physical Factors

7. What is a Crisis: Common Definition A sudden, unexpected event that has the potential to : 1. Cause serious injuries, disease, public health concerns and issues 2. Lead to deaths 3. Exact major financial costs 4. Destroy an individual or organization 5. Cause serious damage to a whole society 6. And attract serious media attention: victim, villain, rescuer

8. What is a Crisis: An Existential Definition

9. A crisis is a major event that destroys ALL of our critical background assumptions What is a Crisis: An Existential Definition

10. A crisis is a major event that destroys ALL of our critical background assumptions One of the most tragic examples: The 1995 bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City What is a Crisis: An Existential Definition

11. What is a Crisis: Major Assumptions Prior to Oklahoma City, three major assumptions:

12. What is a Crisis: Major Assumptions Prior to Oklahoma City, three major assumptions: 1) Terrorism does not happen here.

13. What is a Crisis: Major Assumptions Prior to Oklahoma City, three major assumptions: 1) Terrorism does not happen here. 2) An American wont kill other Americans.

14. What is a Crisis: Major Assumptions Prior to Oklahoma City, three major assumptions: 1) Terrorism does not happen here. 2) An American wont kill other Americans. 3) Innocent men, women, and--worst of all-- children will not be killed.

15. What the Best, Proactive, Organizations Do 1. 1. Form a diverse crisis portfolio 2. 2. Pick-up/amplify early warning signals 3. 3. Continuously audit their culture 4. 4. Constantly challenge key assumptions 5. 5. Build and test damage containment mechanisms 6. 6. Build and test actual CM capabilities

16. Product recalls Product/service tampering Employee sabotage Fires, explosions, chemical spills Environmental disasters Significant drop in revenues Natural HAZARDS Loss of confidential/sensitive information Major lawsuits Terrorist attacks Damage to corporate reputation Ethical breaches What the Best Organizations Do: Form a Diverse Crisis Portfolio 7 to 12

17. What the Best Organizations Do: Pick-Up/Amplify Early Warning Signals Workplace violence Rising absenteeism

18. What the Best Organizations Do: Pick-Up/Amplify Early Warning Signals Workplace violence Rising absenteeism Increased graffiti on bathroom walls

19. What the Best Organizations Do: Pick-Up/Amplify Early Warning Signals Workplace violence Rising absenteeism Increased graffiti on bathroom walls Dilbert cartoons

20. 9/11 Study Preparation for terrorism was Zilch! In spite of the fact that 80% of terrorist acts happen to businesses, not to governments.

21. Proactive corporations: 15% Reactive corporations: 85% 9/11 Study # crises experienced versus prepared

22. Before 9/11 9/11 1 year 2 years Preparation for Terrorism Zilch! 9/11 Study: Reactive Companies Zilch!

23. Before 9/11 9/11 1 year 2 years Preparation for Terrorism Zilch! 9/11 Study: Reactive Companies Zilch!

24. Before 9/11 9/11 1 year 2 years Preparation for Terrorism Zilch! 9/11 Study: Reactive Companies Zilch!

25. Before 9/11 9/11 1 year 2 years Preparation for Terrorism Zilch! 9/11 Study: Reactive Companies Zilch!

26. There was one crisis, however, for which preparation rose steadily… 9/11 Study

27. Before 9/11 9/11 1 year 2 years Preparation for Lawsuits Preparation for Terrorism 9/11 Study: Reactive Companies Zilch!

28. Before 9/119/11 1 year 2 years Preparation for Terrorism 9/11 Study: Proactive Companies

29. Proactive: care about doing the right things Reactive: care only about making money Supreme irony: Proactive are far more profitable! The moral: Crisis Management is not only good in and of itself, but it is good for business. 9/11 Study

30. Corporate Culture Set of background beliefs and fundamental assumptions that drive behavior

31. What the Best Organizations Do: Continuously Audit Their Culture for Dangerous Rationalizations 1. Our size will protect us. Denial, Grandiosity (Exxon) 2. Excellent companies dont have crises. Denial, Idealization (J&J) 3. Our location will protect us. Denial, Compartmentalization (The World Trade Center) 4. Certain crises only happen to others. Denial, Intellectualization (Larousse Encyclopedia) 5. If a crisis happens, someone will rescue us. Denial, Idealization (The Credit Crisis) 6. CM is someone elses responsibility. Denial, Projection (SF Bay Oil Spill) 7. Each crisis is so unique that its pointless to prepare. Denial, Intellectualization (SF Zoo)

32. CM Preparation Number of Dangerous Rationalizations Reactive = 7 X Proactive Proactive Reactive What the Best Organizations Do: The Impact of Culture

33. Summary If I had only one recommendation to make, it would be … Hire an ex investigative reporter.

34. Finally: The Error of the Third Kind

35. Thank you! Ian Mitroff Email: ianmitroff@earthlink.net Web: www.mitroff.net www.compcrisis.com