1. WMO NWP Wokshop: Blending Breakout

2. Blending Breaout Members
Paul Joe- Chair
Steve Goodman- Rappoteur
George Isaac
Peter Li
Steve Weygandt
Rita Roberts
JianJie Wang
Yong Wang

3. Issues- Greatest Gap
People working on NWP need more focus on High Impact WX, esp Extreme Events
Verifying on wrong thing- CSI
Need more frequent outputs fomr models at higher time resolution
Need to focus on non convective WX elements- wind, fog…
Non traditional information
Dual pol
Lightning threat
Satellite
Probabilistic nowcast- what refresh rate
Model guidance not very good- what level of probability leads to high confidence

4. Issues- Greatest Gap Need more specificity from the models
Within 100 km need more point specific
Need high res winds
Rapid update cycle to update rapidly changing environment- eg, afternoon pre-convective evironment
More sfc obs
Dual pol
GPS, profilers
Improved representation of PBL- inversions
Improved microphysics

5. Issues- Greatest Gap Short lived wx events less predictable
Limitation to extend nowcast beyond 2 hours- 2-6 still Big gap due to technology
Blending appropriate strategy to extend nowcasting in a physical way
Need boundary layer variables from models-background mesoscale forcing
This workshop should be held on regular basis to ascertain progress- every 2 years?

6. Issues- Greatest Gap
Support idea for regular workshops- attach to conference- AMS, EGU…
Data assimilation close to observation
Need analysis/output of near surface parameters- eg, 2 m temperature
Better forecast of uncertainty of forecast variables produced by model-eg, motion fields
More detailed atmospheric structure- icing potential, visibility require 3D temp, humidity, winds

7. Issues- Greatest Gap Need NWP model improvement for small scale\
Model physics biases, esp PBL
Microphysics
Improved meso/storm scale assimilation
For mesoscale its an observation problem- inadequate gaps- vertical structure
Precipitation assimilation- can we get useful wind information from cloud and precip information
Optimal use of radial velocity on storm scale
Forecasting impacts harder than forecasting the weather- eg, flooding the issue for Hurricane Irene

8. Issues- Greatest Gap
Poor humidity forecasts- poor boundary layer forcecasts
More work on Probabilistic vs Deterministic forecast- 4 km ensemble vs 1 km deterministic
Need higher resolution- less than 1 km
Need model output at less than hourly- 15 min or better
Better info on cloud base
Output statistics that users want
Need more mesoscale expertise
Higher resolution measurements on shorter time scales- 1 min
Our classical measurements- were not designed to produce 1 min interval information
Need more NWP verification of basic parameters- eg, wind direction
Time series verification vs spatial scale, better stats for verification
International intercomparison projects on meteorological variables

9. Projects to Move Forward
Projects not obvious
Next FDP combine nowcast and NWP WG working together

10. Projects to Move Forward
Underutilization of satellite data and IPT partnering between satellite, radar, NWP community
GOES-R project with Ming Xue, Fuzhong Weng, Louis Grasso, Jason Otkin
GSD HRRR pre/near storm environment using high resolution hyperspectral soundings from LEO
WoF include satellite with cloud ensembles using radar DA
Build forward models now for imagers which have rapid updates of 5-15 min- radiances and products

11. Projects to Move Forward
Integrated Product Teams
High Impact Weather Working Group to bridge communities
Nowcasting Testbed
Severe Storms, Hurricanes, Aviation (safety and efficiency/utilization)
Europe, Japan, Korea, Hong kong dense surface network