1. Advance Planning Wayne Buck NATO UNCLASSIFIED 25-Dec-18
Good day. I would like to talk to you about a topic that I am quite passionate about. Simulation in support of analysis. NATO does not do this very well. Whether the culprit be culture, resources, lack of experience, or ignorance, we do not use simulation as much as we should.
Wayne Buck
25-Dec-18
NATO UNCLASSIFIED

2. Agenda Background and context M&S in Support of Analysis The Future
MSG-167
During this brief about 15 video, I want to go over three basis items. The first is the background, it is important to know that whenever we do a review or write a new vision document, we always have this as a topic but previously have not put it into play. Secondly, what the heck is simulation in support of analysis and what are we doing about it now. Thirdly, how will these activities affect the future.
25-Dec-18
FUSOL

3. M&S in Support of Analysis
M&S Support to Analysis includes:
operations analysis,
planning,
decision making,
concept development, and
any other area that is not related to training eg test and evaluation
25-Dec-18
FUSOL

4. Activities Supporting the Growth of M&S Support to Analysis
Studies directed by NATO HQ
MSG 167 – NATO Simulation for Uses Other Than Training
MSG 155 – Data Farming Services for Analysis and Simulation Based Decision Support
MSG 150 – M&S Supporting NATO CD&E
SAS 130 – Course of Action Analysis in the 21st Century
SAS 139 – NATO Analytical Wargaming – Innovative Approaches for Data Capture, Analysis and Exploitation
Talk briefly about each activity
25-Dec-18
FUSOL

5. Advance Planning
“We took measures to speed up our political and military decision-making, while maintaining political control.  “These include the authority for our Supreme Commander SACEUR to alert, stage and prepare our troops to be ready to go once the political decision is made. We also approved a new concept of advance planning. Detailed advance planning and rapid decision-making are two sides of the same coin. They mean we are able to respond more rapidly and more effectively to threats – wherever they might come from.”
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, June 24, 2015
25-Dec-18
FUSOL

6. A2AD Simulation Study (wargaming)
A simulation data driven analytical study to inform military judgement and advice regarding an advance plan.
First time since 1985.
25-Dec-18
FUSOL

7. A2AD Simulation Study Parameters Planning Handshake Execution Outputs
Advance Planning
Jun 16 - Initial thoughts
Dec 16 – NAC / MC tasker
2017 – plan and rehearse
2018 – Jan-Mar execute
2018 – Apr-Jun write and staff
Eessentially, a small CAX
Heavy use of analysts
STORM – closed
JTLS - open
Parameters
Planning
Handshake
Execution
Outputs
AAR
2-3
Days
JTLS Cycle
MJP
Prioritise
Vignettes
STORM
Identify
Planners
Develop
ConOps
Analysis
Guide
This project is the first time in recent history that NATO has used simulation to assist with advance planning. In fact, the title is misleading – this was actually an analytical study regarding A2AD that was informed by simulation. You can see the dates that the study was carried out. On 3 Sep, the results were sent from the MC to the NAC who will comment.
The diagram that you see is the methodology used for the one week rehearsal and two x two week execution periods.
25-Dec-18
FUSOL

8. About 35,000 – 40,000 manhours
Or about 22 manyears
One week of rehearsal
Two x two week execution sessions
Hundreds of facilitated discussions

9. Results Hard Results – cannot share Soft Results
Planners plan for the plan that has the most chance of success while achieving commander’s intent
Planners need to learn they can fail while planning
All plans need to be joint from the beginning
NATO needs data driven analysis to inform decision makers
Need more wargaming
25-Dec-18
FUSOL
NATO UNCLASSIFIED

10. Connections UK 2018
25-Dec-18
FUSOL

11. I3 Week

12. The Future More studies
Follow on NMSG/SAS TG for NATO Simulation for Uses Other Than Training
M&S and OR teams now have wargaming in job descriptions
Continue to collect information
Share information in Education / Marketing in venues
NATO Military Strategy Wargame – Mar 19
PolMil Wargame late 2019 or early 2020
More studies
25-Dec-18
FUSOL

13. Wayne Buck buck@act.nato.int
25-Dec-18
FUSOL