1. Data-Driven Procurement and Consulting
Noel Temple, CEP
Energy Consultant
September 2018
Data-Driven Procurement and Consulting

3. Summer 2018 - Fifth Hottest on Record
JUNE 1 – AUG 20 TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES
COOLING DEGREE DAY RANKINGS
Strong warmth has dominated most of the nation since June 1.
June 1st through Aug 20th (summer to date) cooling degree days are at 904, which is good enough for 4th hottest since This summer will likely hold around 4th place, however it could make a run at 3rd place (2010 summer). Overall this summer is running about 75 CDDs warmer than last summer at this time.
Here are the rankings of some selected regions:
ERCOT: 5th hottest
PJM: 11th hottest
NEISO: 3rd hottest
MISO: 10th hottest
CAISO: hottest on record
BPA: 2nd hottest

4. Natural Gas Supply and Demand Overview
Week Ending August 15
Customer Takeaway: The most recent natural gas balance sheet shows demand ticking down by ~2 Bcf/d driven by less power burn while dry production hits another all-time high.

5. Gas Productions Hits a Record 82 Bcf/d
Gas production reached a new high for week-ending August 15 touching 82 Bcf/d, a 600 MMcf/d increase from
previous week’s record.
This is the third week in a row of gains after it reached 81 Bcf/d in mid-July.
As gas output increases steadily throughout the year, the 12-month NYMEX gas strip has stayed relatively flat which has slightly increased the negative correlation between the two going from 49% in June to its current 51%.
Customer Takeaway: Gas production chugs along but has been neutralized by strong, sustained power burn over the past 5 weeks. As cooling demand dissipates with progression into the fall, strong production may enable some robust injections. But will they be historically strong to put a dent into overall storage deficits?

6. Natural Gas Stockpiles Fall Below Five Year Lows
This past Thursday’s (8/16) storage fill of 33 Bcf was slightly better than the market consensus of 31 but fell short of the 5-year average as well as last year’s injection at this point in the year.
Consequently, deficits to both last year and the 5-year average grew slightly and are now up to 22 and
20%, respectively.
With another disappointing addition, it’s been 4 weeks of YTD inventories below the 5-year low from 2014.
The latest EIA STEO revised their end of Oct storage tally down to 3,343 Bcf in their latest STEO with one prominent third party picking stocks to finish near 3,100 Bcf.
Customer Takeaway: The bullish storage sentiment is gaining momentum with every historically low week of injections adding to a stubbornly plump deficit. 12 short weeks remain in the official injection season and with each passing week jitters could build creating some price support regardless of weather forecasts.
Data sources: EIA, Constellation
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7. NYMEX Prompt Nearing $3 Once Again
Customer Takeaway: NYMEX prompt-month gas remains range bound between $2.70 and $3 for now. Strong production and the lingering storage deficit is keeping things balanced. Failure to close the storage deficit before winter could lead to a break above $3/MMBtu, as you can see above, pricing is creeping back up.

8. PJM Wholesale Market Settlements

9. Historical Natural Gas Prices

10. Fundamental steps in procurement process
Evaluate energy spend, budget, planning
Analyze current energy usage profile and applicable tariffs
Due diligence/monitoring of suppliers
Negotiate “green apples to green apples” prices
Review supply contracts/negotiate changes if required
Process all documents and manage supplier interaction
Provide customer service excellence
Monitor market and identify future solutions

12. Data-Driven Electricity Price Analytics
APPI Energy works collaboratively with the Energy Research Council (ERC), an affiliated entity. ERC’s mission is to provide facts-based thought leadership concerning energy procurement and management in deregulated markets, through primary research and analysis.
ERC collects and analyzes competitive supplier prices from many suppliers in deregulated electricity markets. ERC develops insights and value-added information that is updated/reported weekly.
Analysis based on 130 million price data points
Benchmarking historical prices
Trends for forward price curves
Insights: when to buy and for what contract length
Identifies suppliers that provide lowest prices in each service territory

15. Tariff Prices vs. Average Supplier Price

16. APPI Energy Intelligence Suite
Lighting Retrofits
HVAC Upgrades
Facility Audits
Solar
Data Capture and Benchmarking
Demand Response

17. APPI Energy by the numbers since 1996
2,097 C&I clients
599 customer service cases resolved in 2017
160+ boroughs/municipalities in PA
158 affinity endorsements
46 vetted suppliers
37 employees
15.2 million Dth
9.2 billion kWh

18. Noel Temple ntemple@appienergy.com 667-330-1159
Thank you!
Noel Temple