1. Migration and fertility in Europe: exposure and transmission of cultural norms
Raffaele Guetto, Mattia Oliviero and Stefani Scherer
Over the last two decades immigration has become a relevant issue for European countries and a very relevant aspect is the effect that immigration has on childbearing trends in Europe, especially in countries characterised by low fertility rates. The paper focuses on the mechanisms potentially responsible of the different fertility behaviours of the immigrant population in Europe, compared to those of natives. More precisely, it tests whether there is an adaptation of 1st, 1.5 and 2nd generation immigrants to local fertility patterns.
In the present analysis we consider both men and women aged between 25 and 40 and compare the number of children of non-natives with that of natives. Firstly, we find immigrants originating from Africa, South-West Asia and Centre-South America to have a significantly greater number of children (see graph below).
Secondly, when models include religiosity, traditionalism and security, we find that those value measures are able to explain most of the residual differences between natives and non-natives. In particular, belonging to a specific religious denomination (e.g. Islam) seems responsible of a greater level of fertility beyond individuals’ religiosity.
Finally, we corroborate the hypotheses that link migration and fertility in a “longitudinal” way, showing evidence of disruption, socialization and adaptation (see graph above).
In the light of the importance of cultural factors to explain differences between natives and non-natives, in the second part of the paper we adopt an “epidemiological approach”. Results suggest that mother’s home country beliefs plays a primary role in shaping reproductive behaviors of 2nd generation immigrants.
Analyses are based on the six waves of the European Social Survey (ESS, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008 , 2010 and 2012). All models are adjusted for age, age-squared, country of residence and ESS wave.