1. From Economic Activity to Ecosystems Protection in Europe
Riku Suutari, Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont Wolfgang Schöpp
From Economic Activity to
Ecosystems Protection in Europe
An Uncertainty Analysis for two
Scenarios of the RAINS Model
A study funded by the
UK Department of Environment, Transport and the Regions

2. Uncertainty Analysis Through Error propagation
Emission model
Dispersion
model
Critical load model
Regional emissions
Transfer matrices
Critical load
functions
Deposition estimate
Protection isolines
Environmental impact

3. Methodology Emission calculations
Model:
Expected emissions:
Covariance:
where
em = emission
z = uncertainty factor for expected emission
act = the activity level
a = uncertainty factor for the activity level
aef = controlled emission factor per unit of activity
e = uncertainty factor for the emission factor
af = application rate for the abatement technology
g = uncertainty factor for the application rate

4. Methodology Deposition calculations
Model:
Expected deposition:
Covariance:
where
w = wet deposition transfer coefficient
w = uncertainty factor for the w
d = dry deposition transfer coefficient
d = uncertainty factor for the d
= spatial variability in a grid area
x and y = pollutant
i and p = region
j and q = activity causing emissions
k and m = removal technology
e = EMEP150 grid

5. Assumed uncertainties in input parameters Coefficients of variation
NOx
NH3
Activity rates
2010
Emission factors
Removal efficiencies
Transfer coefficients
Critical loads CLmax
0.22
0.12

6. Assumed Uncertainties of SO2 Emission Factors

7. Assumed Uncertainties of NOx Emission Factors

8. Assumed Uncertainties of NH3 Emission Factors

9. Top 10 SO2 source sectors UK, 1990

10. Top 10 SO2 source sectors UK, 2010

11. Top 10 NOx source sectors UK, 1990

12. Sensitivity Analysis for UK Emission Estimates

13. Uncertainties in deposition estimates Confidence intervals, 2010

14. Uncertainties in deposition estimates Confidence intervals, 2010

15. Ecosystems protection 2010 Deterministic case and uncertainty range

16. Ecosystems protection 2010 5% and 95 % probability

17. Probability of Unprotected Ecosystems Area in 2010

18. Conclusions General
Methodology is now available, but incomplete and preliminary conclusions:
The most uncertain elements in uncertainty analyses are the uncertainties
Correlations, distributions difficult to quantify
Uncertainties only for specific model output, but not for general ‘model’

19. Conclusions Emission estimates
Error compensation potential determines uncertainties of estimates
Uncertainties of SO2 estimates (sometimes) larger than those for NOx and NH3
Implication for design of emission inventories

20. Conclusions Deposition Estimates
Error compensation important
Isolated sources
Inter-annual variability
Negative correlation between NOx and NH3 deposition
S and NH3 deposition more uncertain than NOx

21. Conclusions Ecosystems Protection
Distribution/range of critical loads determine uncertainties
Significant uncertainty range around median estimate
Implications for target setting – new approach required?
Uncertainties in ecosystems protection smaller than many uncertainties of input parameters

22. On the Internet The full paper and
PowerPoint slides of this presentation
are available at