1. Finn Tarp, UNU-WIDER
Development and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa MFA Planning Days, 27 September 2018

2. Introduction

3. Context The Economist (11 May 2000): Hopeless Africa
The Independent (15 July 2009): Africa – the lost continent
The Economist (3 December 2011): The hopeful continent – Africa rising
A recent Afrobarometer survey suggests: ‘despite high reported growth rates, lived poverty at the grassroots remains little changed’ (Dulani et al )
Others even question the growth revival referring to poor data

4. Questions What is really happening? What is going on at country level?
Can one make sense of it all?
Which are the policy implications?

5. Historical and Macro-economic Background

6. Brief historical points
Independence in the 1960s
Enthusiasm and progress
Import substitution and high international borrowing
The oil crises of the 1970s
The international debt crisis
Structural adjustment in the 1980s (“getting prices right”)

7. Real GDP per capita growth rate by region

8. Substantial variability: 16 GAPP country cases

9. Four key points
A growth turn-around
But still poor
Heterogeneity (across countries and across time)
Vulnerabilities looming

10. Poverty and Human Development

11. Monetary poverty headcount ratio at 1.90 USD (2011 PPP)

12. Life expectancy at birth

13. Human development index by region

14. But the poverty challenge remains significant
Population of SSA doubled from 0.5 billion in 1990 to about 1 billion in 2013
Number of people in absolute poverty increased from 278 million in to 390 million in 2013
Seen against a poverty line of 3.10 dollar head count ratio only fell from 74% in 1990 to 65% in 2013

15. Structural Transformation

16. Agriculture value added

17. Manufacturing value added

18. Services value added

19. The basic story
People leaving agriculture – but no productivity increase
De-industrialization – too few jobs being created
Low productivity services and informal sector growing (vulnerable employment)

20. Critical Issues for the Future

21. Major challenges
Global demographic projections ( ): from 7.3 to 9.7 billion, and Africa’s population is set to double to 2.5 billion (bigger than both China and India and Nigeria bigger than US)
Structural transformation slow
Jobs and employment creation lagging
Agriculture and industrialization constrained
Infrastructure and technology
Climate change looming
Many potential, but every reason to push decisively forward in African development over the next years (remembering T x G = 69)
Trickle down alone will not do the trick – see the ”Stockholm Statement”

22. UN High-Level Panel report on the post-2015 development agenda
Called for:
“..A quantum leap forward in economic opportunities and a profound economic transformation to end extreme poverty and improve livelihoods…”
What will it take?
Donor efforts in the social sectors have been highly successful – especially in the areas of health and education.
However, for the movement of labour from the agricultural sector to the non-farm economy donors need to be more closely involved in the agricultural and industrial policies.

23. Development finance

24. Three big elephants in the room
Trump
Brexit
Commodity prices

25. GROWTH AND POVERTY PROJECT: GAPP

26. Learning to compete: L2C

27. UNU-WIDER research output
Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa: Oxford University Press, edited by Channing Arndt, Andy McKay and Finn Tarp
Measuring Poverty and Wellbeing in Developing Countries: Oxford University Press, edited by Channing Arndt and Finn Tarp
Made in Africa: The Brookings Press, by Carol Newman, John Page, John Rand, Abebe Shimeles, Måns Söderbom, and Finn Tarp
Manufacturing Transformation: Comparative Studies of Industrial Development in Africa and Emerging Asia: Oxford University Press, edited by Carol Newman, John Page, John Rand, Abebe Shimeles, Måns Söderbom, and Finn Tarp
Africa’s Lions: The Brookings Press, edited by Haroon Bhorat and Finn Tarp
Beating the Odds: Jumpstarting and Sustaining Inclusive Structural Transformation: Princeton University Press, by Celestin Monga and Justin Lin (see also Justin Lin’s WIDER Annual Lecture)
Building State Capability: Evidence, Analysis, Action: Oxford University Press, by Matt Andrews, Lant Pritchett, and Michael Woolcock, (see also Pritchett’s WIDER Annual Lecture)
The Practice of Industrial Policy: Business Coordination in Africa and East Asia: Oxford University Press, edited by John Page and Finn Tarp
Growth, Structural Transformation and Rural Change in Vietnam: A Rising Dragon on the Move: Oxford University Press, edited by Finn Tarp
Growth, Employment, and Poverty in Latin America: Oxford University Press, edited by Garry Fields et al.
A LOT MORE: see and including a series of special issues of journals and stand alone articles

28. Other material
Stiglitz: export-led-growth - see both the video, slides and the background paper that can be downloaded from the page
Aryeetey: political-economy-structural-transformation-has-democracy-failed see both the video and the slices that can be downloaded
Tarp and colleagues: and-poverty-sub-saharan-africa this is a working paper on the very topic of the presentation.