1. The Basics:
The Final Installment

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Beliefs are not always grounded in logic or evidence that has been weighed objectively.
Sometimes they are affected by unconscious features of human psychology known as cognitive biases.
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3. For example, is this good reasoning?
All dogs are animals.
Some animals are not German Shepherds.
Therefore some dogs are not German Shepherds.
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NO!
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5. You could just as well argue:
All German Shepherds are animals.
Some animals are not dogs.
Therefore some German Shepherds are not dogs.
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Q. Why does the first argument look better to you than the second, if it does?
A. Possibly because of “BELIEF BIAS”--
the tendency to evaluate reasoning by how believable its conclusion seems.
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Evidence that supports a conclusion we agree with may well seem stronger than evidence that supports a conclusion we disagree with.
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8. Moral:
If our goal is to be objective and logical, we need to think even more critically about reasoning that supports our beliefs.

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BELIEF BIAS is an important example of a “cognitive bias,” an unconscious psychological dynamic that skews belief formation.
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10. Other important cognitive biases include these:
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11. FALSE CONCENSUS EFFECT
A tendency to assume that attitudes held by us and our peers are held by society at large.
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BANDWAGON EFFECT
A tendency to align our belief system with the belief systems of those around us.
It is even possible that raw sense perception is affected by what other people say they are sensing.
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13. NEGATIVITY BIAS
A tendency to weight negative information more heavily than positive information.
Do you find it easy to believe a nasty rumor about someone?
Do you automatically assume a new law will produce more harm than good?
This may be negativity bias.
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IN-GROUP BIAS
May take the form of employing stereotypes to explain the behavior of “outsiders.”
May also take the form of automatically discounting arguments supporting the opinions of people who are “not one of us.”
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15. FUNDAMENTAL ATTRIBUTION ERROR
A tendency to hold those who are “not one of us” especially blameworthy for their actions.
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16. OBEDIENCE TO AUTHORITY
A tendency to go along with an authority even against our better judgment.
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17. OVERCONFIDENCE EFFECT and BETTER THAN AVERAGE ILLUSION
It is wise to keep in mind that we are not always the most accurate judges of our abilities.
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