1. Commission of the UE Genedec project (FP6-502184)
Rural Development Policy:
Possible Impact on Agricultural Productivity in Old and New Member States
Commission of the UE Genedec project (FP )
Elisa Montresor Univeristy of Verona – Italy
Francesco Pecci University of Verona - Italy
Maria Sassi University of Pavia - Italy

2. Importance of the analysis
Fostering and enabling
policy and institutional
environment
Encouraging agricultural
productivity and
competitiveness
Rural
Development Policy
( )
Strategic priorities
Encouraging non-farm
growth activity
Improving social
well-being, gender
equity, managing risk,
reducing vulnerability
The rural development policy for the programming period has stated five strategic priorities:
Encouraging sustainable
management of natural
resources

3. Importance of the analysis
Relationship between
local agricultural systems and
local socio-economic systems
The analysis of the
territorial systems
Impact of decoupling on agriculture
considering the interactions between
agricultural and socio-economic
variables
The Rural
Development Policy,
Modulation and
Cross-compliance
Impact of decoupling
and policy sensitive
socio-economic variables on
agriculture productivity
From the agricultural point of view this rises at least two isuues
Importance for the EU-15 and
New Member Stats

4. socio-economic variables on agriculture productivity
Impact of decoupling
and policy sensitive
socio-economic variables on
agriculture productivity
Intensity of the impact
1. Importance of the analysis
Decoupling affects agricultural and
socio-economic systems only in
relatively restricted areas
The analysis of the
territorial systems

5. socio-economic variables on agriculture productivity
Impact of decoupling
and policy sensitive
socio-economic variables on
agriculture productivity
Intensity of the impact
1. Importance of the analysis
Territorial interventions to promote
local factors for
agricultural development
The analysis of the
territorial systems
Stationary and
non-stationary
parameters

6. socio-economic variables on agriculture productivity
Impact of decoupling
and policy sensitive
socio-economic variables on
agriculture productivity
Intensity of the impact
1. Importance of the analysis
Non-stationary
parameters
Insights for territorial and
decentralised intervention
policymaking
Stationary and
non-stationary
parameters
Groups of homogeneous
regions

7. The CAP regionalization?
Impact of decoupling
and policy sensitive
socio-economic variables on
agriculture productivity
Intensity of the impact
1. Importance of the analysis
2. Object of the analysis
The CAP regionalization?
Object of the analysis
Stationary and
non-stationary
parameters
Groups of homogeneous
regions

8. Data processing chain Initial data set AIC minimization Indicators
1. Importance of the analysis
Initial data
set
2. Object of the analysis
3. Data processing chain
AIC
minimization
Indicators
for GWRs
Stationary
parameters
Non-stationary
parameters
Kohonen SOM
classification
Regionalization
results

9. Indicators: analytical framework
1. Importance of the analysis
Common
2. Object of the analysis
Environmental, food safety and animal welfare standards
Cross-compliance and good practices
3. Data processing chain
- Competitiveness
- Environment and
Country side
- Quality of life and
Diversification of
Rural areas
4. Indicators: analytical framework
- Competitiveness
- Multifunctionality
- Sustainability
Farmers:
free to produce what the market needs
Rural development
Consumers
Taxpayers
Decoupling
Single farm
payments
Modulation
Agricultural Policy
Subsidies

10. Agricultural productivity
Indicators
1. Importance of the analysis
164 regions EU-15
205 regions EU-25
2. Object of the analysis
Demographic
features
EU-15
Subsidies
Innovation and
diversification
3. Data processing chain
4. Indicators
Agricultural productivity
Socio-economic
context
Efficiency and
competitiveness
Environmental
sustainability

11. Results: Non-stationary parameters
1. Importance of the analysis
The variables affecting only locally the agricultural
productivity are not only subsidies but also agricultural
and socio-economic variables
2. Object of the analysis
3. Data processing chain
4. Indicators
Farms and farmers structure;
Agricultural innovation
Employment and Human
capital quality in rural areas
5. Results: Non-stationary parameters
Overall Economic
development,
Innovation, Labour market
Demographic features +
Agricultural
diversification
Local attraction capacity

12. Results: Cluster analysis EU-15
Cluster 1 (48) – Total subsidies and the socio-economic context
1. Importance of the analysis
Cluster 2 (38) – Total subsidies and the rural context
2. Object of the analysis
3. Data processing chain
Cluster 4 (17) – Agricultural context and labour market
Cluster 3 (17) – Innovation, human capital and regional welfare
4. Indicators
5. Results: Non-stationary parameters
Cluster 6 (17) – Total subsidies, livestock intensity and socio-economic welfare
5.1. Results: Cluster analysis EU-15
Cluster 5 (24) – Agricultural and rural features

13. Results: Cluster analysis EU-25
1. Importance of the analysis
Cluster 5 (31) – Agricultural structure, rural features and territorial attraction capacity
Cluster 1 (42) – Farmers age structure, quality of human capital in rural areas and economic context
2. Object of the analysis
3. Data processing chain
Cluster 4 (17) – Territorial attraction capacity and human capital
4. Indicators
5. Results: Non-stationary parameters
Cluster 3 (42) – Agricultural diversification and socio-economic context
5.1. Results: Cluster analysis EU-15
Cluster 6 (36) – Agricultural vitality and sustainability and socio-economic context
5.2. Results: Cluster analysis EU-25
Cluster 2 (37) – Agricultural diversification and human capital

14. Results: maps comparison
1. Importance of the analysis
EU-15
EU-25
2. Object of the analysis
3. Data processing chain
4. Indicators
5. Results: Non-stationary parameters
5.1. Results: Cluster analysis EU-15
5.2. Results: Cluster analysis EU-25
5.3. Results: maps comparison

15. Conclusions 1. The variables affecting only locally the agricultural
EU-15
EU-25
1. Importance of the analysis
1. The variables affecting only locally the agricultural
productivity are not only subsidies but also agricultural
and socio-economic variables
2. Object of the analysis
3. Data processing chain
4. indicators
2. Spatial coherence among groups of regions sharing
geographic borders and sometime
coincident with the reference State borders
5. Results: Non-stationary parameters
5.1. Results: Cluster analysis EU-15
3. A great diversity exists between clusters in terms of profile
5.2. Results: Cluster analysis EU-25
5.3. Results: maps comparison
4. Regionalization: Integrated and multi-sector policy
for agricultural development at the Regional and State level.
6. Conclusions

16. Results: Non-stationary parameters
EU-15
EU-25
1. Importance of the analysis
Total subsidies
Farmers age structure <35/>55
Farm size structure <50UAA/>5UAA
Cow+beef/UAA
IPC agric./IPC total
Employment in rural areas
Life-long learning in rural areas
GDP PPS per capita
Employment rate
High and medium high tec. manuf. (% employment)
Population density
Ageing
Farmers age structure <35/>55
Farmers with other gainful activities
Life-long learning in rural areas
Tourism infrastructures in rural areas
Employment in public sector/total employment
Net migration rate
GDP PPS per capita
Unemployment rate
Students ISCED levels 5 and 6 on total students
High and medium high tec. manuf. (% employment)
2. Object of the analysis
3. Data processing chain
4. Data set
5. Results: Non-stationary parameters