1. Pre-Submission Seminar / Final Review
Alex Burns
14th November 2018
PhD Candidate, School of Politics & Social Inquiry, Monash University

2. Changes Since Mid-Candidature Review
Focus on single case study: Japan’s religious cult and terrorist organisation Aum Shinrikyo (omitted draft material on Islamic State)
Respond to recent methodological advances in process tracing (looked at Bayesian and set-theoretic roots – considered ‘out of scope’ for PhD project)
Shift from strategic studies / terrorism studies sub-field synthesis to also consider relevant insights from political economy (macrofoundations) and political psychology (microfoundations)
Draft manuscript of 150 pages (43,848 words as of 14th November 2018)
Working notes material (270 handwritten pages from , and 590 pages or 255,552 words from ).
22nd July 2019 planned submission of final draft for review

3. Strategic Culture Defined: Jack Snyder
Formulated in 1977 by Jack Snyder for a RAND monograph on Ford and Carter administration détente and the Soviet Union
“Individuals are socialized into a distinctly Soviet mode of thinking a set of general beliefs, attitudes and behavioral patterns that places them on the level of “culture” rather than mere “policy” . . .” [emphasis added] (Snyder 1977: v)
“Culture is perpetuated not only by individuals but also by organizations.” (Snyder 1977: 9).
“Strategic subculture: a subsection of the broader strategic community Reasonably distinct beliefs and attitudes.” (Snyder 1977: 10).

4. Conceptualising Fourth Generation Strategic Culture
Reflects a possible multipolar world in which there are shifts in great power hierarchies / ‘rising’ powers (T.V. Paul, Jonathon Renshon, David M. Edelstein)
Sub-field basis in national security context: problem / threat emphasis
Sub-field links to terrorism studies research on terrorist organisations (Martha Crenshaw, Jacob N. Shapiro, Jessica Stern, Mark Juergensmeyer, David C. Rapoport)
Stronger links to understanding nuclear proliferation networks and regional nuclear powers (Vipin Narang, Alexandre Debs, Nuno P. Monteiro, Scott Sagan)
Understanding ‘red team’ theories of victory in nuclear blackmail and possible ‘limited’ nuclear war: Russia, China, Pakistan, India, North Korea (Brad Roberts)
Different policy instruments: economic statecraft (David Baldwin), coercive diplomacy (Todd S. Sechser, Matthew Fuhrmann), extended nuclear deterrence (Andrew O’Neil)

5. Strategic Subcultures in Terrorist Organisations
New conceptual theory to integrate insights from first generation strategic culture (Jack Snyder’s original RAND paper), terrorist organisations (David C. Rapoport, Jacob N. Shapiro), and the study of religiously motivated terrorism (Mark Juergensmeyer)
Contrasts with rational choice theory explanations (Martha Crenshaw)
Elite framework for understanding terrorist organisation leadership
Shift from political, religious, and philosophical ideas to moral calculus of violence (William T. Vollmann) as choice preference, and then to organisational capabilities
Emphasis on the cultivation and mobilisation of counter-power
‘Strong form’ are terrorist organisations that have ‘quasi-state’ status (Hamas, Hezbollah, perhaps Islamic State at its operational peak)
‘Weak form’ are terrorist organisations that develop a subculture but that are unable to survive in the long-term or who experience disruptions (e.g. leadership decapitation)

6. Research Methodology
Small-N case study using “heuristic” approach: existing literature versus strategic subculture explanations (George & Bennett 2005).
Selection of deviant and extreme case (Gerring 2012): Japan’s religious cult and terrorist organisation Aum Shinrikyo.
Process tracing that identifies the causal mechanisms and processes that link X1 (terrorist organisation exists and rapidly grows) and Y1 outcome (survival over a significant time period and carries out successful terrorist campaigns) (George & Bennett 2005; Beach & Pedersen 2013; Bennett & Checkel 2015).
Also combine facets of event studies (insights from past published research) and counterfactuals (Lebow 2010, Burns 2011) in Chapter 5 on Aum Shinrikyo’s Shambhala Plan.
Focus on three posited causal mechanisms: (1) cultural transmission, (2) social learning, and (3) folklore.

7. Aum Shinrikyo Founded in 1984 as a small yoga group
Founder: Shoko Asahara (Chizuo Matsumoto)
Developed a synthesis of religious beliefs
Hindu deity worship (Shiva)
Tibetan Buddhist Vajrayana (esoteric practices)
Evangelical Christianity (End Times apocalypse)
Occult milieu (Nostradamus)
Innovation (Perfect Salvation Initiation
20th March 1995: sarin gas attack on Tokyo subway
13 people killed
6000 people injured
Long-term psycho-social effects in Japanese society
Transformed from religious cult to religiously motivated terrorist organisation

8. Aum’s Pathway to Violence
Aum’s goal of recruiting 30,000 renunciates (very ambitious, led to Korea and Russia members)
Early, optimistic period became more pessimistic (Ian Reader, 2000): parallels to Bhagwan Rajneesh (Netflix documentary Wild, Wild Country)
Failed ‘populism’ of Asahara as candidate in political campaign for the Japanese Diet
Asahara’s interest in conspiracy theories (priming)
Chemical and Biological Weapons experimentation
Pathway to violence: Matsumoto (June 1994) and Tokyo (March 1995) when other options were exhausted

9. Macrofoundations: Japan’s ‘Lost Decades’
Economic bubble in 1980s
Aum’s early goal: recruit 30,000 renunciates
Shambhala Plan: global, utopian spiritual community
Aum viewed as a safe haven
Deflationary stagnation
Debt austerity
Psycho-social stressors: background of renunciates (noted in Haruki Marukami’s Underground interviews)
Aum became a psychic prison

10. Mesofoundations: Indoctrinability
Susceptibility or vulnerability to coercion, manipulation, or persusasion
Indoctrination into a particular political, religious, or philosophical belief system
Deals with the belief adoption process of a worldview or values
Explains Robert Jay Lifton’s observation (2000) of ‘cloning the guru’ practice in Aum
Anthony Stevens & John Price’s evolutionary psychiatry analysis of cultic groups (2000)
Marco Del Giudice’s research in evolutionary psychiatry (2018) may update Lifton’s insights
Neo-Darwinian competition for members between different Japanese new religions: dominance-submission, rank-ordered groups

11. Microfoundations: Rent-Seeking and Wealth Extraction
Renunciate were a low-cost labour pool
Worked in construction, anime production, publishing (infrastructure, media capabilities)
Forerunner of anthropologist David Graeber’s recent study Bullshit Jobs: A Theory (2018)
Teacher-Student relationship in Tibetan Buddhist Vajrayana (Chogyam Trungpa)
Different experiences in Haruki Murakami’s Underground (2001) about “the place that was promised”
Aum as rent-seeking and wealth extraction entity for the primary benefit of senior leadership (elite model)
Aum in the context of Japanese communitarian capitalism and Western neoliberal capitalism

12. Case Study Lessons 1
Aum Shinrikyo transformed from a guru-led religious cult to a religiously motivated terrorist organisation
Political economy (macrofoundations) are important to understand the structural forces and the socio-economic context
Indoctrinability can help to understand other political, religious, and philosophical groups
Broader generalisability beyond terrorism studies
Japanese Government execution of Asahara and other Aum members (6th and 26th July 2018)

13. Case Study Lessons 2
Aum Shinrikyo a ‘failed’ case of developing a strategic subculture
Asahara’s goal of recruiting 30,000 renunciates failed
Senior leadership lacked the scientific knowledge for Chemical and Biological Weapons
Attempts to acquire radiological / nuclear weapons from Russia failed
Fascination with anime / manga media imagery (proxy for folklore)
Aum Shinrikyo had a compartmentalised organisational structure
Senior leadership were unaware of Japan’s ‘continuity of government’ capabilities
Most renunciates were unaware of senior leadership’s CBW program
Renunciates experiences escalated commitment (low-cost labour force) and rent-seeking / wealth extraction that flowed to senior leadership (noted by Stevens & Price 2000)
Insights for further developing a conceptual theory of strategic subcultures
Asahara was motivated by Hindu and Tibetan Buddhist Vajrayana ideas
Initiatory / religious sub-system in Aum Shinrikyo was important for renunciates
Potential elite capture (by ideas) of senior leadership in an organisation

14. Discussion