1. Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting in Tropical Cyclones
Shuyi S. Chen
Manuel Lonfat, Joseph Tenerelli, Frank Marks
Robert Rogers, Fiona Horsfall
Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science
University of Miami
NOAA/AOML/HRD
NOAA/NWS/TPC

2. Factors that Influence TC Rainfall
Intensity
Shear
Landmass/Topography
TC/Synoptic System Interaction
Translation speed
Moisture advection
Microphysics/Aerosol
Surface Flux

5. HRD/AOML P3 LF REFLECTIVITY
2030 UTC 14 SEP 1999
2300 UTC 13 SEP 1999

7. Uncoupled

8. Sensitivity to Model Grid Resolution

11. 15 km
1.67 km

13. Influence of Vertical Shear and Synoptic Weather Systems

16. Hurricane Floyd (1999)

17. Hurricane Bonnie (1998)

19. Quantitative Precipitation Estimates from TRMM TMI/PR

20. Hurricane Floyd (1999)

22. TRMM/TMI Azimuthal Averages (1998-2000)
R (mm/hr)

26. TMI PDF of R
90%
or 50%

27. Measures of R PDF
R-CLIPER uses mean from PDF - not best measure of PDF (log-normal) - shows intensity influence
Other measures are the median of the PDF (area and flux). Area shows intensity influence, but flux does not, except in the inner core.

28. TC QPF Questions
What characteristic of PDF of R are we trying to predict, i.e., mean R, Rmax, etc.?
What is best measure of PDF of R to use to answer the question, i.e., mean, median, 90% of PDF?
How do we develop a evaluation/validation system for high-resolution QPF product?
How will it be used operationally, perhaps a combination of deterministic and probabilistic measure that takes into account of track errors?