1. Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply
Chapter 31
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2. Short-Run Economic Fluctuations
Economic activity fluctuates from year to year.
In most years production of goods and services rises.
On average over the past 50 years, production in the U.S. economy has grown by about 3 percent per year.
In some years normal growth does not occur, causing a recession.

3. Short-Run Economic Fluctuations
A recession is a period of declining real GDP, falling incomes, and rising unemployment.
A depression is a severe recession.

4. Three Key Facts About Economic Fluctuations
Economic fluctuations are irregular and unpredictable.
Fluctuations in the economy are often called the business cycle.
Most macroeconomic variables fluctuate together.
As output falls, unemployment rises.

5. A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations
(a) Real GDP
Billions of
1992 Dollars
Recessions
$7,000
Real GDP
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995

6. Three Key Facts About Economic Fluctuations
Most macroeconomic variables fluctuate together.
Most macroeconomic variables that measure some type of income or production fluctuate closely together.
Although many macroeconomic variables fluctuate together, they fluctuate by different amounts.

7. (b) Investment Spending
A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations
(b) Investment Spending
Billions of
Recessions
1992 Dollars
$1,100
1,000
Investment spending
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995 1

8. Three Key Facts About Economic Fluctuations
As output falls, unemployment rises.
Changes in real GDP are inversely related to changes in the unemployment rate.
During times of recession, unemployment rises substantially.

9. A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations
(c) Unemployment Rate
Percent of
Labor Force
Recessions 12 10
Unemployment rate 8 6 4 2
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995

10. How the Short Run Differs From the Long Run
Most economists believe that classical theory describes the world in the long run but not in the short run.
Changes in the money supply affect nominal variables but not real variables in the long run.
The assumption of monetary neutrality is not appropriate when studying year-to-year changes in the economy.

11. The Basic Model of Economic Fluctuations
Two variables are used to develop a model to analyze the short-run fluctuations.
The economy’s output of goods and services measured by real GDP.
The overall price level measured by the CPI or the GDP deflator.

12. The Basic Model of Economic Fluctuations
Economist use the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply to explain short-run fluctuations in economic activity around its long-run trend.

13. The Basic Model of Economic Fluctuations
The aggregate demand curve shows the quantity of goods and services that households, firms, and the government want to buy at each price level.

14. The Basic Model of Economic Fluctuations
The aggregate supply curve shows the quantity of goods and services that firms produce and sell at each price level.

15. Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply...
Price
Level
Aggregate
supply
Equilibrium
price level
Aggregate
demand
Equilibrium
output
Quantity of
Output

16. The Aggregate Demand Curve
The four components of GDP (Y) contribute to the aggregate demand for goods and services.
Y = C + I + G + NX

17. The Aggregate-Demand Curve...
Price
Level P1 Y1
1. A decrease in the price level... Y2 P2
Aggregate
demand
2. …increases the quantity of goods and services demanded.
Quantity of
Output

18. Why the Aggregate Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping
The Price Level and Consumption: The Wealth Effect
The Price Level and Investment: The Interest Rate Effect
The Price Level and Net Exports: The Exchange-Rate Effect

19. The Price Level and Consumption: The Wealth Effect
A decrease in the price level makes consumers feel more wealthy, which in turn encourages them to spend more.
This increase in consumer spending means larger quantities of goods and services demanded.

20. The Price Level and Investment: The Interest Rate Effect
A lower price level reduces the interest rate, which encourages greater spending on investment goods.
This increase in investment spending means a larger quantity of goods and services demanded.

21. The Price Level and net Exports: The Exchange-Rate Effect
When a fall in the U.S. price level causes U.S. interest rates to fall, the real exchange rate depreciates, which stimulates U.S. net exports.
The increase in net export spending means a larger quantity of goods and services demanded.

22. Why the Aggregate Demand Curve Might Shift
The downward slope of the aggregate demand curve shows that a fall in the price level raises the overall quantity of goods and services demanded.
Many other factors, however, affect the quantity of goods and services demanded at any given price level.
When one of these other factors changes, the aggregate demand curve shifts.

23. Why the Aggregate Demand Curve Might Shift
Shifts arising from Consumption
Shifts arising from Investment
Shifts arising from Government Purchases
Shifts arising from Net Exports

24. Shifts in the Aggregate Demand Curve...
Price
Level D2 P1 Y2
Aggregate
demand, D1 Y1
Quantity of
Output

25. The Aggregate Supply Curve
In the long run, the aggregate-supply curve is vertical.
In the short run, the aggregate-supply curve is upward sloping.

26. The Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve
In the long-run, an economy’s production of goods and services depends on its supplies of labor, capital, and natural resources and on the available technology used to turn these factors of production into goods and services.
The price level does not affect these variables in the long run.

27. The Long-Run Aggregate- Supply Curve...
Price Level
Long-run
aggregate
supply P1
1. A change in the price level…
2. …does not affect the quantity of goods and services supplied in the long run. P2
Natural rate
of output
Quantity of
Output

28. The Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve
The long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical at the natural rate of output.
This level of production is also referred to as potential output or full-employment output.

29. Why the Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve Might Shift
Any change in the economy that alters the natural rate of output shifts the long-run aggregate-supply curve.
The shifts may be categorized according to the various factors in the classical model that affect output.

30. Why the Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve Might Shift
Shifts arising from Labor
Shifts arising from Capital
Shifts arising from Natural Resources
Shifts arising from Technological Knowledge

31. Long-Run Growth and Inflation...
2. …and growth in the money supply shifts aggregate-demand...
AD2000
AD1990
Price Level
LRAS1980
1. In the long-run, technological progress shifts long-run aggregate supply...
LRAS2000
LRAS1990
4. …and ongoing inflation.
P2000
P1990
P1980
AD1980
Y1990
Y2000
3. …leading to growth in output...
Y1980
Quantity of
Output

32. Long-Run Growth and Inflation
Short-run fluctuations in output and price level should be viewed as deviations from the continuing long-run trends.

33. Why the Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve Slopes Upward in the Short Run
In the short run, an increase in the overall level of prices in the economy tends to raise the quantity of goods and services supplied.
A decrease in the level of prices tends to reduce the quantity of goods and services supplied.

34. The Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve...
Price Level
Short-run
aggregate
supply Y1 P1 P2
1. A decrease in the price level Y2
2. reduces the quantity of goods and services supplied in the short run.
Quantity of
Output

35. Why the Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve Slopes Upward in the Short Run
The Misperceptions Theory
The Sticky-Wage Theory
The Sticky-Price Theory

36. The Misperceptions Theory
Changes in the overall price level temporarily mislead suppliers about what is happening in the markets in which they sell their output:
A lower price level causes misperceptions about relative prices.
These misperceptions induce suppliers to decrease the quantity of goods and services supplied.

37. The Sticky-Wage Theory
Nominal wages are slow to adjust, or are “sticky” in the short run:
Wages do not adjust immediately to a fall in the price level.
A lower price level makes employment and production less profitable.
This induces firms to reduce the quantity of goods and services supplied.

38. The Sticky-Price Theory
Prices of some goods and services adjust sluggishly in response to changing economic conditions:
An unexpected fall in the price level leaves some firms with higher-than-desired prices.
This depresses sales, which induces firms to reduce the quantity of goods and services they produce.

39. Why the Aggregate Supply Curve Might Shift
Shifts arising from Labor
Shifts arising from Capital
Shifts arising from Natural Resources.
Shifts arising from Technology.
Shifts arising from the Expected Price Level.

40. Why the Aggregate Supply Curve Might Shift
An increase in the expected price level reduces the quantity of goods and services supplied and shifts the short-run aggregate supply curve to the left.
A decrease in the expected price level raises the quantity of goods and services supplied and shifts the short-run aggregate supply curve to the right.

41. The Long-Run Equilibrium
Quantity of
Output
Price
Level
Short-run
aggregate
supply
Long-run
Aggregate
demand A
Equilibrium
price
Natural rate
of output

42. A Contraction in Aggregate Demand...
Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
A Contraction in Aggregate Demand...
2. …causes output to fall in the short run…
Price
Level
Long-run
aggregate
supply
Short-run aggregate
supply, AS1
AS2 C P3
3. …but over time,
the short-run aggregate-supply curve shifts…
1. A decrease in
aggregate demand…
AD2 P1 A B P2 Y2
4. …and output returns
to its natural rate.
Aggregate
demand, AD1 Y1
Quantity of
Output

43. Shifts in Aggregate Demand
In the short run, shifts in aggregate demand cause fluctuations in the economy’s output of goods and services.
In the long run, shifts in aggregate demand affect the overall price level but do not affect output.

44. An Adverse Shift in Aggregate Supply
A decrease in one of the determinants of aggregate supply shifts the curve to the left:
Output falls below the natural rate of employment.
Unemployment rises.
The price level rises.

45. An Adverse Shift in Aggregate Supply...
1. An adverse shift in the short-run aggregate-supply curve…
AS2
Price
Level
Long-run
aggregate
supply
Short-run aggregate
supply, AS1
2. …causes output to fall… B Y2
3. …and the price level to rise. P2 A P1
Aggregate demand Y1
Quantity of
Output

46. Stagflation
Adverse shifts in aggregate supply cause stagflation—a combination of recession and inflation.
Output falls and prices rise.
Policymakers who can influence aggregate demand cannot offset both of these adverse effects simultaneously.

47. Policy Responses to Recession
Policymakers may respond to a recession in one of the following ways:
Do nothing and wait for prices and wages to adjust.
Take action to increase aggregate demand by using monetary and fiscal policy.

48. Accommodating an Adverse Shift in Aggregate Supply...
Price
Level
AS2
1. When short-run aggregate supply falls…
Long-run aggregate supply
Short-run aggregate supply, AS1 C
2. …policymakers can
accommodate the shift
by expanding aggregate
demand…
AD2 P2 P3
3....which causes the price level to rise A P1
4. …but keeps output at its natural rate.
Aggregate demand, AD1
Natural rate
of output
Quantity of
Output

49. The Effects of a Shift in Aggregate Supply
Shifts in aggregate supply can cause stagflation – a combination of recession and inflation.
Policymakers who can influence aggregate demand cannot offset both of these adverse effects simultaneously.

50. Summary
All societies experience short-run economic fluctuations around long-run trends.
These fluctuations are irregular and largely unpredictable.
When recessions occur, real GDP and other measures of income, spending, and production fall, and unemployment rises.

51. Summary
Economists analyze short-run economic fluctuations using the aggregate demand and aggregate supply model.
According to the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, the output of goods and services and the overall level of prices adjust to balance aggregate demand and aggregate supply.

52. Summary
The aggregate-demand curve slopes downward for three reasons: a wealth effect, an interest rate effect, and an exchange rate effect.
Any event or policy that changes consumption, investment, government purchases, or net exports at a given price level will shift the aggregate-demand curve.

53. Summary In the long run, the aggregate supply curve is vertical.
The short-run, the aggregate supply curve is upward sloping.
The are three theories explaining the upward slope of short-run aggregate supply: the misperceptions theory, the sticky-wage theory, and the sticky-price theory.

54. Summary
Events that alter the economy’s ability to produce output will shift the short-run aggregate-supply curve.
Also, the position of the short-run aggregate-supply curve depends on the expected price level.
One possible cause of economic fluctuations is a shift in aggregate demand.

55. Summary
A second possible cause of economic fluctuations is a shift in aggregate supply.
Stagflation is a period of falling output and rising prices.

56. Graphical Review

57. A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations
Recessions
(a) Real GDP
Billions of
1992 Dollars
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
$7,000
Real GDP

58. (b) Investment Spending
A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations
Recessions
(b) Investment Spending
Billions of
1992 Dollars
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
$1,100
Investment spending
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995 1

59. A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations
Recessions
(c) Unemployment Rate
Unemployment rate 2 4 6 8 10 12
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Percent of
Labor Force

60. Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply...
Equilibrium
output
Quantity of
Output
Price
Level
price level
Aggregate
supply
demand

61. The Aggregate-Demand Curve...
Quantity of
Output
Price
Level
Aggregate
demand P1 Y1 Y2 P2
2. …increases the quantity of goods and services demanded.
1. A decrease in the price level...

62. Shifts in the Aggregate Demand Curve...
Quantity of
Output
Price
Level
Aggregate
demand, D1 P1 Y1 D2 Y2

63. The Long-Run Aggregate- Supply Curve...
Quantity of
Output
Natural rate
of output
Price Level
Long-run
aggregate
supply P1 P2
2. …does not affect the quantity of goods and services supplied in the long run.
1. A change in the price level…

64. Long-Run Growth and Inflation...
1. In the long-run, technological progress shifts long-run aggregate supply...
LRAS2000
LRAS1990
Quantity of
Output
Price Level
P1980
Y1980
AD1980
P2000
P1990
LRAS1980
2. …and growth in the money supply shifts aggregate-demand...
AD2000
AD1990
4. …and ongoing inflation.
Y1990
Y2000
3. …leading to growth in output...

65. The Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve...
Quantity of
Output
Price Level
Short-run
aggregate
supply Y1 P1 Y2
2. reduces the quantity of goods and services supplied in the short run. P2
1. A decrease in the price level

66. The Long-Run Equilibrium
Quantity of
Output
Price
Level
Short-run
aggregate
supply
Long-run
Aggregate
demand A
Equilibrium
price
Natural rate
of output

67. A Contraction in Aggregate Demand...
Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
A Contraction in Aggregate Demand...
1. A decrease in
aggregate demand…
AD2
Quantity of
Output
Price
Level
Short-run aggregate
supply, AS1
Long-run
aggregate
supply
Aggregate
demand, AD1 A P1 Y1 B P2 Y2
2. …causes output to fall in the short run…
AS2 C P3
3. …but over time,
the short-run aggregate-supply curve shifts…
4. …and output returns
to its natural rate.

68. An Adverse Shift in Aggregate Supply...
1. An adverse shift in the short-run aggregate-supply curve…
AS2
Long-run
aggregate
supply
Short-run aggregate
supply, AS1
Quantity of
Output
Price
Level
Aggregate demand A Y1 P1
3. …and the price level to rise. P2
2. …causes output to fall… B Y2

69. Accommodating an Adverse Shift in Aggregate Supply...
AS2
1. When short-run aggregate supply falls…
Quantity of
Output
Natural rate
of output
Price
Level
Short-run aggregate supply, AS1
Aggregate demand, AD1
Long-run aggregate supply A P1 P2 P3
3....which causes the price level to rise
4. …but keeps output at its natural rate. C
2. …policymakers can
accommodate the shift
by expanding aggregate
demand…
AD2