1. 2 METOC Consulting, Monterey, CA 93943, swadley@nrlmry.navy.mil
MONITORING COAMPS® SURFACE FORECAST QUALITY
G. Love1* and S. Swadley2
1 Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA 93943,
2 METOC Consulting, Monterey, CA 93943,
The METQC monitor provides top-level signaling of forecast quality with links to maps and timelines of station differences configured in a classic drill-down schema.
Forecast innovation vectors are graded both in terms of exceeding set caution and warning thresholds and in terms of a confidence level
METQC Quality Control Monitor
BLUE: High (>= 90 Percent), GREEN: Good (>= 75 Percent), YELLOW: Fair (>= 60 Percent), RED: Poor (< 60 Percent), GRAY: Missing
Confidence Levels for the Last 12 Hours ending at
Individual stations are further graded in terms and frequencies relative to being best or worst at a given time.
The COAMPS innovation vector is the difference between the observation and the COAMPS forecast interpolated to the location and time of the observation.
The confidence history over the West Coast reveals the hourly confidence level of the reporting group of stations.
Since forecasts can lead or lag, the phase of each station is calculated and plotted based upon the offset time with the highest forecast-to-observation history correlation.
The scoring distribution and related innovation histogram provide insight into why the confidence is low, due either to a large bias, a large spread or bimodal behavior.
The METQC monitor has revealed terrain, coastal, diurnal, phase and seasonal effects in COAMPS forecast quality.
Maps of innovation differences, confidence levels and phase offsets can also be overlaid with model grids, satellite images and radar scans to aid diagnosis of observed forecast quality.
COAMPS® and COAMPS-OS® are registered trademarks of the Naval Research Laboratory