1. Physics Enrolments: Past, Present and Future

2. Senator Fielding’s Climate Change Graph

3. Office of Chief Scientist: Year 12 Science participation
Source: ASTA Strategic Plan

4. Taking the longer view
.. and accounting for changes in the Retention Rate.

5. And for Victoria

6. Retention from Year 10 to Unit 1
Females: Dropped from 11.5% to 6.2%
Males: Dropped from 29.5% to 22.4% and now at 24.1%

7. Retention from Unit 2 to Unit 3
Increase seems to coincide with introduction of Detailed Studies

8. Projections Assumptions
Year 7 population increases from 67,000 to 85,000 by 2025.
Proportion of students choosing Physics stays constant, that is, 11% of Year 7’s do Physics when they get to Year 12.

9. Projections
Year 12 Physics population stays about 7,250 until 2019, then …
Progressively increases to 9,500 by 2029.