1. EUROPE, EMERGING POWERS AND
A NEW GLOBAL ORDER?

2. Three views of international relations:
World as International System: interaction based on relations of power > non-hegemonic unipolarity?
World as International Society: multilateral legal order & shared norms > denser but uneven
Governance and the changing role of the state: fragmentation and integration > non-state based economic governance
Material
capabilities
International
order
Ideas
Institutions

3. Emerging powers: BRICs?
From economic to political globalisation?
New ‘global grand bargain’ (Howorth)?
Centres of gravity are changing
e.g. Chinese economic growth; BRICs buying European debt; etc.
BRICs: the spectacular journey of a concept
(4 emerging economies will match GNP of 6 leading industrial states in 4 decades)
From Goldman Sachs (4 emerging economies would match GNP of 6 leading industrial states in 4 decades)
Over Academia
To Politics: BRICs consultation
Aheap of BRICs is not a house:
only united in neo-revisionism
G20
IMF
BRICs consultation?
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation?

4. Oil prices
1993: 17 USD
1998: 13 USD
2000: 28 USD
2005: 54 USD
2008: 97 USD
2009: 61 USD

5. & Russia in perspective (2011) (SIPRI)
Military expenditure by the EU member states
& Russia in perspective (2011) (SIPRI)
Country
Military expenditure
in bln USD
World share (%)
USA
698 43
EU-27 combined
285 18 UK
69.6
3.7
China
119
7.3
France
59.3
3.6
Germany
45.2
2.8
Russia
58.7
Italy 37
2.3

6. World nuclear forces 2012 (SIPRI)
Country
Deployed
warheads
Other
Total
Inventory
USA
2 150
5 850
~8 000
Russia
1 800
8 200
10 000 UK
160 65
225
France
290 10
~300
China
. .
200
~240
India
80–100
Pakistan
90–110
Israel
~80
North Korea ?
~4 400
~14 600
~19 000

7. GDP, share of world total
Evolution of GDP, (in Purchasing Power Parity) (IMF)
GDP per capita,
1992
GDP per capita
2012
GDP, share of world total EU
16,000 USD
32,000 USD
26%
19%
USA
24,700 USD
49,800 USD
23%
China
1,000 USD
9,000 USD 4%
15%
Russia
7,900 USD
17,700 USD 3%
India
959 USD
3,851 USD 6%
Brazil
5,500 USD
12,000 USD
2.85%

8. The EU’s share in world trade and FDI,
compared to the USA and China (%)
(figures of 2010 for trade, 2009 for FDI) (European Commission)
Share of global EU
USA
China
Export of goods
15.1
10.8
13.3
Import of goods
16.4
16.2
11.5
Export of services
24.9
18.6
6.1
Import of services
22.1
13.4
7.2
FDI inward stocks
27.5
22.0
3.3
FDI outward stocks
34.6
28.2
1.5

9. The rise of PR China Since 1978 (open doors): economy x4
Since 1978 (open doors):
economy x4
15% of world GDP
2nd military spender
Growing self-confidence : China evolved from developing country ‘par excellence’ to development model
=> Growing will to protect interests through foreign policy, but:
Strong emphasis on
economic and monetary stability
International stability
Multilateralism over power politics?

10. Sustainability of China model?
Gap between production and domestic consumption > highly dependent on trade
Real estate bubble
Corruption
Legitimacy of party depends on economic growth
Social stability? Gap city-countryside
Geopolitical issues?
‘Beijing consensus’
Incremental Reform
Innovation and Experimentation
Export Led Growth
State Capitalism
Authoritarianism

11. EU-China
2nd largest economic cooperation: trade from 4 bln EUR in 1978 to 395 bln EUR in 2010
EU is 1st trading partner for China / China is 2nd trading partner for EU
Images have evolved:
China:
from developing country, communist, isolated
to global economic power, fierce competitor, unfair player (intellectual property rights), reluctant power
< old division of tasks has ended:
EU and China increasingly compete in similar markets
EU and China have diverging policies for certain regions (Africa)

12. EU-Russia: energy dependence?
Introduction: some ‘classic’ data…
Russia has biggest gas reserves in the world
Russia is biggest oil producer in the world
Russia supplies:
36 % of EU gas imports (2009)
31 % of EU oil imports (2009)
30 % of EU coal imports (2009)
* according to most recent figures of DG Energy
Russian state revenues: 1 bln USD / 1 USD price rise per barrel

16. Dependence in the market of natural gas
How to measure dependence?
1990
2000
2008
Russian share in EU gas imports
55 %
40 %
31 %
Russian share in EU gas consumption
25 %
Russian share in EU primary energy consumption
6 %
6.3 %
6.8 %

17. Typology of dependency
Sensitivity
Vulnerability
Demand
Demand sensitivity
Demand vulnerability
Supply
Supply sensitivity
Supply vulnerability

18. The EU’s supply dependence
EU imports 31% of gas from Russia
(average per member state: from 24% to 47 %)
Dependence on Russian gas is distributed highly unevenly over EU states:
Complete import dependence: Bulgaria, Slovakia, Baltic states, Finland
No import dependence: Denmark, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, UK
In between: Poland (89%), Greece (53%), Germany (37%)
uneven distribution over EU member states
core of EU dependence: EU fails to speak with one voice

20. Russia’s demand dependence
70% of Russian gas export goes to EU
Russian economy strongly dependent on energy export:
Up to 2/5 of economic growth due to rising energy prices
For 1 USD price increase per barrel of oil, Russia’s state income increases by 1 bln USD
Russia’s energy strategy:
Diversifying energy export markets (debt for equity deals)
Securing stable demand

22. Conclusion Four conditions for Russia to use gas as political weapon:
Supply vulnerability of EU
Absence of Russian demand dependency
Dominance of energy over other means of power
Clear link between energy and political objective
Future?
Increasing diversification
Russia’s investment problem
Energy markets changing rapidly:
Renewable energy
Shale gas
Unconventional oil
Biomass