1. Questions about climate change in next few decades
What is the probability of large or abrupt regional temperature changes
change in probability of extremes
are models underestimating changes in annular modes/NAO?
Are models underestimating some aspects of precipitation changes (Zhang et al)?
I will be talking about changes in rainfall and heavy rainfall – the pictures show flooding associated with heavy rainfall in very different parts of the world, and briefly also about other changes in climate that affect the water cycle – such as changes in circulation or warming causing glacier melting,
I have collaborated with a range of people on different aspects of this, so swiped many results of cos.

2. Changes in probability of extremes
Understanding and predicting changes in extremes will benefit from understanding role of SST forcing, and need complete forcings (land use change, chemistry)

3. Observed and ALL multi-model trends (1925-1999)
Yet: There is some similarity between mmean and obs: green where both increase, yellow where both decrease, grey where differences/no change, and white where no data
Zhang et al., nature, July 2007

4. Attributable changes to CO2
AR4 likely (66%) range
Attributable changes to CO2
Models with perturbed parameters (incl simple models, ECS and TCR estimate - Knutti et al)
AR4 archive: synchronized experiments
SPM Fig. 5
We will need something like this => we need multiple methods+archive!