1. The Driving Force Behind Increased Automobile Fatalities
Summer Fellows Project 2018
By: Jack Hoffman
Working under Jim Berry, Economics

2. Introduction
I spent my summer examining the recent trend of increased automobile fatalities occurring across the world and particularly in the U.S., what factors could be leading to roads across the world becoming more dangerous, and possible policy solutions to remedy the issue
My presentation will explain my findings and introduce further areas of research on the topic

3. Overview
The International Transport Forum (ITF) is an intergovernmental organization acting as a think tank on transport policy for the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) which has 36 member countries
The ITF began recording traffic fatalities within the OECD member countries in 1990 and has been instrumental in recommending transport policy striving to make the world’s roads safer

4. Global Progress
Since 1990 the number of annual automobile fatalities has decreased by 46% in OECD member countries, never increasing year-over-year once between 1990 and 2015
The implementation and improvement of in-car features such as air bags and brakes in addition to policies on seat belts, blood alcohol content and speed limits have made roads dramatically safer even as the number of drivers sharing the road has increased

5. Global Progress
Besides Chile, every member of the OECD has seen their roads become safer between 1990 and 2016, with some European countries (Hungary, Lithuania, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain & Switzerland) seeing fatalities decrease by over 75%

6. Global Progress

7. U.S. & E.U. Progress

8. Sudden Shift in Fatalities Trend (2014-2016)
17 of the 33 OECD countries have seen increases in traffic fatalities between 2014 and 2016
14 of the 33 OECD countries have seen increases in traffic fatalities per 100,000 people
OECD traffic fatalities increased by 9% between 2015 and 2016
First year over year increase on record

9. Suspected Factors in Fatality Increases
Increase in distracted driving from social media use
more distracted population of drivers leads to increase in likelihood of accident
Aging population
Larger portion of population with slower reflexes
Gas prices
Assuming consumers respond to changing gas prices, lower gas prices lead to more drivers on the road and a greater chance of fatalities
GDP per capita
Better economy leads to more cars on the road

10. OECD Analysis (1990-2016) R2: 0.9384 F-Test: 55.86 Variable T-test
Significant at 95% level?
% of population > 65 years old
-0.72 No
GDP per Capita
-2.12
Yes
OECD Gas Price
0.20

11. OECD Analysis (2009-2016) Interaction term between population and social media
F-Test: 30.63
Variable
T-test
Significant at 95% level
% of population > 65 yrs old
4.86
Yes
GDP per Capita
-6.87
OECD Gas Price
5.29
Interaction Term
-1.05 No

12. World Analysis (2009-2016) No interaction term
F-Test: 39.75
Variable
T-test
Significant at 95% level
% of population > 65 yrs old
6.88
Yes
GDP per Capita
-7.09
OECD Gas Price
6.39
Social Media Basket
-1.51 No

13. Analysis
GDP per capita was a significant predictor of traffic fatalities in each regression. Greater GDP likely lead to more research, more government policy and safer cars
Gas prices and percent of population over 65 were both significant predictors of fatalities between 2009 and Increasing population over 65 without any significant changes in technology may indicate that an aging population plays a role in the recent trends
Social media use was not a significant predictor in any model

14. U.S. Analysis (1990-2016) R2: 0.6491 F: 6.79 Variable T-test
Significant at 95% level
% of population > 65 yrs old
-2.55
Yes
Gas Prices
-2.60
GDP per Capita
0.30 No

15. U.S. Analysis (2009-2016) No interaction term
F: 12.57
Variable
T-test
Significant at 95% level
% of population > 65 yrs old
1.95 No
Gas Prices
-1.69
GDP per Capita
1.38
Social Media Basket
0.10

16. U.S. Analysis (2009-2016) Interaction term
F: 12.53
Variable
T-test
Significant at 95% level
% of population > 65 yrs old
1.74 No
Gas Prices
-1.75
GDP per Capita
-2.47
Yes
Interaction term
0.06

17. Why is the U.S. lagging the developed world?
GDP per capita is not a significant predictor of traffic deaths since 1990, but is a significant predictor since 2009
No other variables were significant in predicting U.S. automobile fatalities in any model
In short, my hypothesis that social media use was the main factor leading to the increased traffic fatalities in the U.S. is not supported by the data
My hypothesis may be incorrect or I used the wrong variables

18. Policy Suggestions
Subsidize self-driven car research and development. If the roads continue to become less safe, self-driven cars should be a priority
Monitor the aptitude of senior drivers more frequently
Require social media apps to install a warning similar to many GPS apps that prevents you from looking at your phone when traveling over a certain speed limit

19. Further Research
Consider new variables such as alcohol consumption, spending on driver education and extreme weather
Monitor new data releases as they become available
Find a better proxy variable for distracted driving than social media users
Consider policy implications and implementing a causal model to test for changes in policy