1. State Climate Office Drought Update
Adnan Akyuz, Ph.D.
NDSU, AES
State Climatologist
Updated 8/16/2018

2. Countywide Precipitation Anomalies and Rankings
July 2018 (48th Wettest)
June-July 2018 (22nd Wettest)
Blue/Brown colors indicate wetter/drier than long-term ( ) average.

3. Countywide Temperature Anomalies and Rankings
July 2018 (60th Warmest/65th Coolest)
June-July 2018 (17th Warmest)
Blue/Brown colors indicate wetter/drier than long-term ( ) average.

4. 30-Day Precipitation
Total Accumulation
% of Normal
(NDAWN Images)

5. Long Term Precipitation % of Normal
60 Days
90 Days
(NDAWN Images)

6. (% Change from previous week)
Cumulative % area
(% Change from previous week)
None
44%
(-34%) D2 2%
(+2%) D1 8%
(+6%) DO
56%
(36%)

7. State Coverage and Intensity

8. Drought Change
One-week Change
4-week Change

9. Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide)
329
(Aug 8, 2006)
295
(Aug 8, 2017) 65
(+22)
Drought Severity and Coverage Index = ADO + 2AD1 + 3AD2 + 4AD3 + 5AD4 (Akyüz, 2007)
Where: A is a % of the state covered under the corresponding D-severity

10. Accumulated Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide)
9977
(+65)
9,530
10,645
9663
19,319
2116
1714
*Numbers indicate the area under the DSCI Index Curve
*Akyuz (2017)

11. Soil Moisture and Bare Soil Temperature
Soil Moisture Departure from Normal
5-week Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI)
(40mm = 1.6”)

12. Corn GDD Accumulation Forecast*
Black Layer: Sep 1
*This graphic is created for Cass County based on:
88 day corn
May 10 planting date
Median first day of killing frost: Oct 8
*U2U Decision Support Tools:

13. Grassland Productivity Forecast (Final for this Growing Season)
Based on actual precipitation observed through July 31st, this final grassland production estimate for your county (in pounds per acre) is ____ % more or less than its 34-year average.
USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub:

14. 7-day Forecast* Thu 1am, Aug 16 through Thu 1am, Aug 23
*College of DuPage
Next Generation Weather Lab

15. 14-day Forecast* Thu 1am, Aug 16 through Thu 1am, Aug 30
*College of DuPage
Next Generation Weather Lab

16. Medium Range Forecast
Week 3-4 Precipitation
Week 3-4 Temperature

17. Long Range Forecast CPC Sep-Nov Precipitation Outlook
CPC Sep-Nov Temperature Outlook

18. County-wide Agricultural Impacts for the week
Climate Division
Drought Impact by counties
1: North-West
Ward: Moderately Dry. No measurable or widespread precipitation since early July. Crops are stressed, soybeans are wilted, corn leaves are curled, pasture and range land has burned up except for low lying areas. We feel the eastern part of Ward County is quite a bit drier than what the drought monitor currently shows. The soybeans are burning up, the hay fields are dry with low yields equivalent to last years hay production.
2: North-Central
McHenry: Severely Dry. Rain has been very scarce throughout the county and we are getting into a critical need. Rain is needed to make the bean and corn crop. Subsoil moisture is limited. We have had hit and miss rain throughout the county.
Even before the extreme temperatures this weekend crops ( ), grass, and hay land have shown the affects from lack of moisture. Grass production early on in the year was estimated at 3 weeks behind the rest of the state and ranchers are running out of grass now, a producer has contacted me and mentioned that they are moving into their fall pastures now when they normally don’t move to them until the end of September. At this rate we will be feeding very early in the fall, which is a concern as well because of the lessened hay crop. Our crop ground is stressed to the extreme with very little rain may mean that beans and corn WILL be facing a reduced yield.
Conditions have deteriorated drastically since July 5, hail, extreme heat and little significant rainfall in a good portion of the county have had a severe impact on grazing loss. Our hay yields were poor due to an open winter, we had less than half our normal precip for the months of Jan, Feb, April and May, some of those months receiving only 6% of normal. In June we received excess rainfall the pastures started to regenerate, obviously this was too late for hay land as the damage had already been done except for 2nd cutting alfalfa.
With the open winter and receiving less than 50% of our normal moisture from snow through March, our grazing season had a three week setback to give the cool season grasses a chance to grow. Rainfall for the month of July and the days in August is below average again, 100 plus temperatures have taken their toll. Producers are contacting us regarding Emergency Haying/Grazing of Conservation Reserve Program acres and we do not qualify due to the amount of precipitation we received in the month of June.
Conditions are much worse now than they were last year at this time and we were in D3 then according to the US Drought Monitor. Producers are starting to feed hay in the southern part of the county, and are starting to turn livestock into pastures they don’t normally use until late September or early October. Pastures that were grazed in June with hopes of returning in October to take advantage of normal regrowth will not be usable this fall. Producers are referring to the grass as “potato chips”, crunchy grass, etc.
I know we have limited recording sites in McHenry, but there are producers in every section that can give you a clear indication of just how bad conditions have become.

19. County-wide Agricultural Impacts for the week
2: North-Central
Bottineau: Moderately Dry. Most pastures are drying up and have stopped growth. Possibility of pulling cattle out of pastures due to lack of re-growth and diminishing water supplies. Some might have to supplement pastures if dry conditions persist. Pastures are in rough shape and need moisture to help sustain. Purchasing hay early to supplement pasture is evident and will have to be done in the near future to prevent long term negative effects on pasture.
3: North-East
Grand Forks: Moderately Dry. Crops such as soybeans and corn are stressed at this time. Concern over the later development of corn and beans. Soybean are at a critical stage for pod fill and lack of moisture has set back development greatly in places.
Nelson: Moderately Dry . We could use rain. Heat earlier this spring/summer pushed many pastures to head out quickly. I have heard recent descriptions from cattlemen that they are "grass is brown". Have heard reports of less hay this year, and cows are getting out. Beans (Dry edibles and Soys) are starting to drop leaves and yellow prematurely. Concerns of yield being very low. Yield loss is expected.
4: West
Mercer: Mildly Dry. Pasture starting to show some stress little rainfall last 20 days with above normal temps. Pasture starting to show some stress little rainfall last 20 days with above normal temps. Dugouts starting to show green algae and levels starting to drop.
Dunn: Severely Dry. Red Flag warning this weekend, 100s multiple days. Fire Dept. took care of multiple fires. Southwest part of the country is extremely dry. The area north of Killdeer and Dunn Center is also very dry. Small grains are coloring and ready to be harvested. Other later crops are not getting the moisture to fill properly unless a deep root system is present. Range and pasture land is browning and reports of hay being fed already.

20. County-wide Agricultural Impacts for the week
5: Central
Foster: My fields and pastures are drier this year as compared to last year’s drought. While one farmer gets a thunder shower, eastern foster and eddy counties are without rain. Just drive by the soybean fields and the drought effects are obvious and severe.
6: East-Central
Griggs: Moderately Dry. It is very obvious we are heading towards some worsening conditions. Have only observed a couple pastures this week, forage is very limited.
7: South-West
Golden Valley: Moderately Dry. Pasture and crops are both showing water shortage stress, we went from ok, to very dry in just a few days. Starting to get back some water tests that show high TDS and Sulfates. Some Concerns: nitrate issues, are later small grains going to fill, will we have enough hay, fire concerns when haying. In response: fire units are ready to go, starting to see some cattle move from one pasture to another.
Billings/Stark: Moderately Dry. Rainfall has ranged anywhere from 6-17' in the counties. Very spotty. More rainfall on the lower amount than higher amount. Hay production ranges from 60 to 100 percent of considered normal. Some concerns: available forage, nitrates, water quality. In response: some grain harvested for hay.
8: South-Central
Burleigh: Pasture and crops are both showing water shortage stress. Minimal, spotty rainfall in the county since middle of July 2. Some ponds and lakes are exhibiting cyanobacteria. Pasture condition hasn't fully recovered from last year's drought; rain helped earlier in the season, but now we are getting dry again.

21. Agricultural Impacts (Select Photos)
McHenry County (M. Stutrud, FSA)
McHenry County (R. Wald, NDSU)