1. Jamaicas Second National Communication Enabling Activities for the Preparation of Jamaicas Second National Communication to the UNFCC Water Resources and Agriculture Dr. Mark Futter Initial V&A Workshop 5 th November 2007

2. Outline 1.A short history lesson…. 2.What do we want to achieve with the SNC ….? 3.How are we going to get there….? 4.How vulnerable are we now….? 5.How will we assess vulnerabilities and develop adaptation strategies under future climate…? 6.Concluding comments

3. A short history lesson….the INC….. It will be a widely read document that is easily accessible to all It will have ownership by a wide range of stakeholders (public, private & voluntary sectors) It will lead to positive policy changes and programmes to reduce vulnerability for all Jamaicans It will be a document that informs Jamaicas sustainable development

4. What do we want to achieve with the SNC…? The consultant will be required to conduct integrated assessments of biophysical effects and the potential socio-economic impacts on the agricultural and water resources sectors of Jamaica. The assessments must determine the vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and the adaptation measures that will be required to mitigate these effects Exposure Adaptive Capacity Sensitivity

5. What do we want to achieve with the SNC…? QuestionsAgricultural SectorWater Resources Sector What is of concern?Food production & food security, incomes and export earnings Protection of the aquatic environment and water supply to all sectors of society, Who may be affected?Ag. Workers & rural communities, agro- business and food processing industries Customers of NWC / NIC / private supplies, those dependent on healthy aquatic environment How far into the future is of concern? To 2050 What is the purpose of the assessment? To recommend adaptation strategies at a range of scales / across sectors

6. What do we want to achieve with the SNC…? QuestionsAgricultural SectorWater Resources Sector What kind of output is needed? One that raises awareness with stakeholders and leads to changes in policy and practice What resources are available? One person formally (+ stakeholder support) How much time is available? Until end of February 2008 What level of stakeholder support is sought? Whatever is offered – but expect this to vary depending upon resources available

7. How are we going to get there…..? World Development Global GHG Global climate models Impacts Vulnerability (physical) Vulnerability (social) Adaptive Capacity Indicators based on: Economic resources; technology; Information & skills, institutions, Equity PastPresentFuture Global Local Climate Adaptation Policy UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework NAPA Guidance UKCIP IPCC Seven Steps U.S. Country Studies Program UNEP Handbook

8. How are we going to get there…..? Engage stakeholders Increase adaptive capacity 1. Scope project 2. Assess current vulnerability 3. Characterize future climate-related risks 4. Develop adaptation strategy 5. Continue adaptation process UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework

9. How vulnerable are we now …? PIOJ Agriculture Production Index 1986-2006 1986=100

10. How vulnerable are we now …? Banana Crop: Hurricane Ivan destroyed the entire crop, for export and domestic consumption. 8,000 people out of work for 6-9 months until crop production resumes Coffee Crop: Ivan led to loss of berries in 45% of coffee producing areas and destruction of 5% of coffee trees. Withdrawal of some farmers from production due to expense of insurance coupled with low world prices

11. How vulnerable are we now …? Sugar Cane Crop: Hurricane Ivan led to broken and uprooted canes as well as flooding in large areas Impact is to reduce sugar content, decrease sugar yield and increase processing costs Livestock production: poultry, goats and pigs were most affected by Ivan and milk production decreased due to the death of dairy cattle

12. How vulnerable are we now …? Water Management Unit ResourcesDemands 2005 Surplus/ Deficit Demand/ Resources % 18-Hope River74.587.6-13.1117.5 19-Rio Cobre483.7305.2178.563.1 20 – Rio Minho 266.1175.890.366.1 Annual Water Resources Balance for 2005 (units 10 6 m 3 /yr)

13. How vulnerable are we now …? Lack of surface reservoir storage Saline intrusion into coastal aquifers Significant losses in water distribution systems Investment in improved water resources management

14. How will we assess adaption measures for future climate …? Climate Scenarios Socio-Economic (Baseline) Scenario(s) Water Resources Development Plan Water Balance Model Water Balance Model WMU Results Sectoral Adaptation Measures Vulnerability Reduced ? NO YES REVIEW PROGRESS

15. How will we assess adaption measures for future climate …? Type of ModelKey Characteristics Agro-climatic models and GIS Based on simple calculations and effective for comparing across regions & crops, but only consider climate Statistical models and yield functions Based on empirical relationships between crop responses and climate, but do not explain causal mechanisms, nor future climate-crop relationships Process-based models Include climate, soils and management, widely used and calibrated and can be used for adaption assessments. Require significant data input for best results Economic models Incorporate land values, commodity prices and economic outcomes, and therefore useful to assess market based and financial adaptation measures – but are complex and require significant data input Household and village models Look at current coping strategies under existing conditions, but do not capture future stresses if different from current

16. Challenges….. Scale and complexity of problem (dependencies) Project resources Project timetable Availability of tools