1. 1 California Water Plan Update 2003 & Beyond California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum Annual Meeting February 25, 2004

2. 2 Talk Overview Part 1 - Preparing the Plan Part 2 - Developing a New Analytical Framework for the California Water Plan Discussion –Anatomy of Models –CWEMF Role with Long Term Framework

3. 3 Part 1 – Preparing the Plan Water Plan Update Overview & Process New Planning Framework Limitations & Phased Work Plan Content & Document Organization Key Themes, Findings & Recd Actions

4. 4 Water Plan Overview Program 10 > 1 of 6 DWR Goals Required by law (Water Code) First Water Plan -Bulletin 3 (1957) Seven Updates (Bulletin 160) Update every five years –Last in 1998Next in 2003 States Master or Strategic Plan

5. 5 California Water Plan Purpose –Strategic plan for state policy/decision makers –Guide for managing & developing CA water –Framework for investing public funds Content –Basic information - water resources & system –Current water supplies and uses –Scenarios for future supplies and use –Recommendations (Strategies & State Role) Footnotes –No mandates; No spending authorizations –Not project or site specific; No CEQA

6. 6 Water Plan Update 2003 DWR Goals & Approach Goals –Meet Water Code requirements –Expand public input –Develop a useful plan Approach –Open & transparent public process –Seek collaborative recommendations –Strategic Planning model; New framework

7. 7 www.waterplan.water.ca.gov

8. 8 New Planning Framework 65-member Public Advisory Committee Water Portfolios using 1998, 2000, 2001 data Regional Reports reflecting regional challenges, goals, and planning efforts Multiple Scenarios to identify and plan for future uncertainties and risks Many Strategies to meet future water demands while sustaining our resources and economy

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10. 10 Issues & Challenges Significant data and information gaps Analytical tools for long-range planning are not fully developed Revising process impacted schedule Reduced DWR staff & budget

11. 11 Phased Work Plan June 2004 –Public Review Draft of Water Plan Update –Narratives of four 2030 Future Scenarios –Short & Long-term Work Plan for Data & Tools December 2004 –Public Comment & Release Final Update –Select methods to quantify 2030 Scenarios 2005 (Begins Update 2008) –Conduct Quantitative Studies for 2030 Scenarios

12. 12 Five Volumes of Update Vol. 1 – Strategic Plan –Findings, Recommendations & Implementation Vol. 2 – 25 Resource Mgmt Strategies Vol. 3 – 12 Regional Reports –10 Hydrologic Regions, Mt. Counties & Delta Vol. 4 – Reference Guide –Supplemental articles Vol. 5 – Technical Guide (Electronic Only) –Documentation for data, methods & tools

13. 13 Volume 1 – Strategic Plan Foreword & Users Guide Executive Summary Findings & Recommended Actions Ch 1 – Plan Overview Ch 2 – CA Water Today (Statewide View) Ch 3 – Planning for an Uncertain Future Ch 4 – Regional Integrated Resource Plng Ch 5 – State Role & Responsibilities Ch 6 – Implementation & Finance

14. 14 Volume 2 Resource Management Strategies (Definition, Current Level, 2030 Potential & Cost, Benefits, Issues & Recommendations) 1.Agricultural Use Efficiency 2.Conj. Mgmt/GW Storage 3.Conveyance 4.Desalination 5.Drinking Water Treatment & Distribution 6.Economic Incentives Policy 7.Ecosystem Restoration 8.Floodplain Management 9.Groundwater/Aquifer Remediation 10.Matching WQ to Use 11.Pollution Prevention 12.Precipitation Enhancement 13.Recharge Area Protection 14.Recycled Municipal Water 15.Surface Storage – Bay-Delta Program 16.Surface Storage –Region/Local 17.System Reoperation 18.Urban Land Use Management 19.Urban Runoff Management 20.Urban Water Use Efficiency 21.Water-Dependent Recreation 22.Water Transfers 23.Watershed Management 24.Working Lands Management 25.Other Strategies (R&D)

15. 15 Volume 3 - Regional Reports Regional Perspective Outline –Setting –Existing State of the Region –Looking to the Future Featuring –Flow Diagrams, Water Balances for 1998, 2000 & 2001 –Water Quality summary –Regional water planning efforts –Examples of water management & restoration programs

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17. 17 Water Plan Vision for 2030 California has adequate, reliable and sustainable water of suitable quality for all beneficial uses.

18. 18 Water Plan Goals for 2030 Improved quality of life for projected 53 million Californians. Sustained economic growth, business vitality and agricultural industry. Protected and restored ecosystems. Environmental justice for all Californians. Stronger State leadership, coordination, and oversight and more public investment. Regions play the central role in integrated water & resource planning. Local and regional planners diversify management strategies. Local govmts and agencies improve coordination of land use planning with water planning and management. State-supported investigations, and R&D of promising new technologies. Planners make more informed (less risky) decisions. Fewer gaps in data & analytical tools; better access to information.

19. 19 Water Management Objectives Integrate & optimize management strategies Provide water supply benefits Increase drought resiliency Improve water quality Increase operational flexibility & efficiency Improve flood control Increase energy generation or reduce use Increase recreation opportunities Enhance instream, riparian or terrestrial ecosystems Reduce groundwater overdraft Reduce pollution Reduce runoff, drainage or tailwater Reduce uncertainty & risk

20. 20 Key Themes, Findings & Recd State leadership & oversight for statewide assessments, protecting public assets; doing what regions cant do by and for themselves State promote & assist regionally-based, integrated, multi-resource planning State fill data/tool gaps & support R&D Regions diversify water portfolios choosing from 25 resource management strategies Locals improve coordination of land use planning with water planning/management

21. 21 3.5 to 6 MAF Additional Demands for 2030 Current Trends Scenario To maintain QOL for 17 million more Californians –Additional 2 - 3 million acre-feet To recover groundwater overdraft –Additional 1 - 2 million acre-feet To protect & restore degraded ecosystems –Additional 0.5 – 1 million acre-feet To sustain econ growth & agricultural industry –About the same as now

22. 22 DRAFT 1/30/2004 Implementation and Investment Guide to 2030

23. 23 Contact Information Kamyar Guivetchi, P.E. Manager, Statewide Water Planning DWR, Planning & Local Assistance 901 P St., 2 nd Floor, Sacramento (916) 653-3937 kamyarg @ water.ca.gov www.WaterPlan.water.ca.gov

24. 24 Part 2 Developing a New Analytical Framework for the CWP Background and Context Anatomy of Models Proposed CWP Framework Proposed Conceptual Model Principles for framework Short Term Approach and Beyond Discussion and Possible Roles for CWEMF

25. 25 Last Year at Asilomar …

26. 26 What has Happened Since? Advisory committee was not comfortable with proposed approach –Didnt fully support or understand some of the models and modeling –Disagreed with using a single vision of future conditions DWR lacked resources to address problems within schedule DWR decided to take a slower, fundamentally different approach rather than disregard feedback

27. 27 Where We Are Now State has leadership role in evaluating statewide water management strategies Complexity of CWP has increased DWR has held numerous public workshops to develop a proposed analytical framework Proposal has not been presented to or approved by full Advisory Committee

28. 28 Anatomy of Models (Developed by Ken Kirby) Conceptual model Theoretical model Numerical model Data Data management Software

29. 29 Definitions Conceptual Model - A description or analogy used to help visualize something that cannot be directly observed Theoretical Model - A system of postulates, data, and inferences presented as a description of an entity or state of affairs

30. 30 Definitions Numerical Model - An analytical tool that employs quantitative approximations to the solutions of mathematical problems

31. 31 Proposed CWP Framework Identify Required Information Develop Conceptual Models Develop Theoretical Models Develop Short Term Approach Conduct Quantitative Analysis for Update 2008 2003 - 2004 2004 - 2006 2005 - 2007

32. 32 Conceptual Model Water Management System Water Management System Climate Conditions Economic and Performance Indicators Economic and Performance Indicators Ag/Urban Demands Ag/Urban Demands Ecosystem Demands Ecosystem Demands Ecosystem Wants Ag/Urban Wants Ag/Urban Wants

33. 33 Straw Proposal for Presenting Conceptual Models Agricultural Water Demands Urban Water Demands Required Input Desired Output Required Input Desired Output

34. 34 Principles for Development and Application of Tools and Data Strategy Transparency Long-Term Viability Coverage Accountability and Quality Control

35. 35 Short Term Approach Propose changes to existing tools and data Develop list of data needs Modify existing tools and data Inventory analytical tools using Anatomy of Models Compare theoretical models to existing tools, data and conceptual models

36. 36 Quantitative Analysis for Water Plan Update 2008 Future scenarios Performance measures Interpret and describe results

37. 37 Update 2008 and Beyond Improve existing tools using conceptual model Fill data gaps Develop Water Plan Information Exchange (Water PIE)

38. 38 Discussion and Possible Roles for CWEMF Anatomy of Models and CWP proposed framework Detailed inventory of existing tools and data Proposed conceptual models, desired output, and required input Evaluating adequacy of tools

39. 39 Contact Information Rich Juricich, P.E., M.S. Statewide Water Planning DWR, Planning & Local Assistance 901 P St., 2 nd Floor, Sacramento (916) 651-9225 juricich @ water.ca.gov www.WaterPlan.water.ca.gov