1. Partner 68 Center for Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel

2. Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68 WaterGAP -overview- Water use model Water use model Hydrology model Water Availability per 0.5° grid-cell Water Withdrawals per sector per country/grid-cell socio-economicdata physiographicdataclimatedata Water Stress -per basin- Water Stress -per basin-

3. Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68 SOIL WATER BALANCE SOIL WATER BALANCE Rain & Snowmelt Actual Evapotranspiration Surface Runoff & Groundwater Recharge Surface Runoff & Groundwater Recharge + - - -Hydrology Model- RIVER DISCHARGE RIVER DISCHARGE

4. Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68 What we have done: Task 6.2.1 Preparation of the model WaterGAP (completed) Task 6.2.4 Definition of critical impact thresholds (completed) Task 6.2.3/ Task 6.2.8 preliminary sensitivity analysis and response surfaces (completed)

5. Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68 Sensitivity analysis and response surfaces for 18 case study river basins

6. Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68 Response of water availability to climate variations

7. Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68 In their response, the river basins can be divided into the three groups: northern, central, and southern European basins Fig.: RS for northern, central, southern European catchments Guadalquivir (Southern Europe) Danube (Central Europe) Lule (Northern Europe)

8. Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68 What we plan to do: M6.6 Sensitivity analysis and response surfaces based on ENSEMBLES climate data Use the threshold theory to identify crucial conditions of water resources Points of discussion When will ENSEMBLES climate projections become available (and when will our results be required) River basins (selection of case study river basins) Timeframe of underlying climate data ( depends on scenario time frame – currently 1961-1990) Format of response surface use uniform format