1. The HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan, its implementation and some potential PPPs Jesper H. Andersen Head of unit (EU Water Policy) DHI Water Environment Health Round table discussion seminar The environmental standing of the Baltic Sea: from political proposal to practical project 17 March 2008, Copenhagen, DK

2. Mission The HELCOM BSAP will neither save the Baltic Sea nor result in Good Environmental Status (sensu MSFD) Hopefully its implementation will improve environmental status as well as ecological status (sensu WFD) and conservation status (sensu HD) My mission today is to: –Focus on BSAP implementation in an adaptive management framework –Outline an ongoing PPP as well as two potentially promising PPPs

3. A few word on eutrophication in the Baltic Sea

4. The BSAP and adaptive management… Source: Andersen & Pawlak, 2006

5. BSAP and eutrophication… The eutrophication segment of the BSAP is largely based on scenarios made by MARE/NEST The approach is state-of-the-art Source: HELCOM, 2007

6. The BSAP and adaptive management… Source: Andersen & Pawlak, 2006

7. B, G, Y, O, and R = H, G, M, P, and B Assessment of eutrophication status Source: Andersen et al. (2007) Overall objective: Assess the eutrophication status in the whole Baltic Sea on the basis of a harmonised approach Additional objectives: Visualise and conceptualise the effects and extent of eutrophication in the Baltic Sea Describe the causes of eutrophication and quantify the inputs of nutrients to the marine environment Assess the effectiveness of already taken measures in order to indicate i) to what extent the goals are fulfilled or not, and ii) to what extent supplementary measures are required HELCOM EUTRO-PRO is a ongoing but informal PPP (MS authorities, IGO, and a private partner)

8. Eutrophication and the way forward… Politics seem to have over-ruled science… Source: HELCOM, 2007

9. A word of caution… Source: Jackson et al., 2001

10. Linking BSAP, WFD and HD… Eutrophication has reduced SAV density and distribution However, SAV is many areas also limited by substrate availability, especially in Germany and Denmark Examples: –Limfjorden (Denmark) – reconstruction of 2 km2 stone reef will reduce hypoxia risk in the order of 95% –Arkona Basin - O 2 inputs from the Belt Sea are significantly reduced - can we do anything to improve the situation? This could develop into a PPP …

11. BEACON, another PPP? Modelling of environmental issues is in general un- coordinated at a Baltic Sea-wide scale A lot of resources could be spend more effectively … and in support of the BSAP implementation … We need co-ordination, harmonisation and a Baltic Sea Ecosystem Modelling Network (BEACON): –Hydrographic ensemble modelling –Reference conditions –Hypoxia –Boundary conditions (WFD coastal vs. MSFD marine) –Habitat building species (Fucus, Mytilus, Zostera, etc.) –Implementation (products, up-stream catchments, scenarios, demonstration projects BEACON Tool Box) BEACON is a potential Public Private Partnership Currently, a consortium is being set up with participants from all Baltic Sea States (based on HELCOM EUTRO- PRO and BALANCE activities)

12. Wrap up (1) The HELCOM BSAP will not save the Baltic Sea However, implementation of the BSAP will improve environmental status in all parts of the Baltic Sea The eutrophication segment should be scrutinized, especially in regard to the planned nutrient reductions

13. Wrap up (2) Potential PPPs in support of BSAP implementation could include: –Further development of assessment tools (together with the indicator on which they run) complementing existing HELCOM tools (HEAT (eutrophication) and BEAT (biodiversity)) –Supplement REDUCTIONS with ecological engineering in order to speed up recovery without infringement of EU directives –Establish a Baltic Sea Ecosystem Modelling Network with focus on ensemble modelling, RefCon, hypoxia, boundary conditions, distribution of habitat building species, and ultimately a Tool Box Finally a word of caution: –Involve all relevant institutions (public and business) that are willing to support BSAP implementation –Tangible solutions cost a lot of money –Think BIG

14. Thank you for your attention