1. 29/12/2018
Labour Market Conditions and Outlook Pre-ASPECT Conference Victoria, B.C. November 7, 2018

2. GDP per capita by industry
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

3. GDP per capita by industry
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

4. BC Labour Market 2017: 4.7 million British Columbians
29/12/2018
BC Labour Market
135,000
looking
4,000, and over
698,000 under 15
2,462,000 working
1,327,000 don't want to
48,000 unable
2017: 4.7 million British Columbians
125,000
looking
4,000, and over
703,000 under 15
2,485,000 working
1,373,000 don't want to
42,000 unable
2018: 4.8 million British Columbians
Applies to government-funded infrastructure projects valued at $15 million or greater
Interpretation One
Applies to projects that received $15 M in provincial funding
Does not apply to projects of any size that receive less that $15M
Interpretation Two
Apples to any project with a total value of $15M or more and that receives provincial funding of any amount

5. BC Unemployment Rate 29/12/2018
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

6. Historical Trend: Unemployment Rate and Participation Rate
29/12/2018
Historical Trend: Unemployment Rate and Participation Rate
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

7. Trends by age group, 1976-2017 9.6% 11.5% Unchanged
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

8. 29/12/2018
Flexibility in working arrangements
Government boosting immigration
Labour Market not that great
Wages?

9. B.C. by Age Group: Year over Year to October
29/12/2018
B.C. by Age Group: Year over Year to October
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

10. 29/12/2018
Job Vacancies in BC
In 2018 Q2, BC continues to have the highest job vacancy rate (4.7%) among the provinces since the third quarter of The number of job vacancies rose over 100,000 in Q2 of 2018, an increase of 23% over the same quarter last year.
Compared to AB and ON, BC had a relative high job vacancy rate in 14 of the 20 sectors.
Source: Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage Survey

11. Job Vacancy Rates by Economic Region
29/12/2018
Job Vacancy Rates by Economic Region
British Columbia:
In the second quarter in 2018, British Columbia had the third highest number of job vacancies in the country after Ontario and Quebec, respectively – Chart 1. Total number of job vacancies in British Columbia in Q2 was 105,815, accounting for 19% of all job vacancies in Canada (547,280).
British Columbia dropped to second among the provinces in job vacancy rates (4.7%) following Prince Edward Island (9.4%)
On a year-over-year basis, job vacancies in British Columbia were up 23% from the same quarter in The job vacancy rate increased from 4.0 to 4.7% over the same period.
Within the province, Thompson-Okanagan (5.3%) and the Lower Mainland-Southwest (4.8%) were amongst the economic regions with the highest vacancy rates. Job vacancies rose across all regions on a year-over-year basis – Chart 3.
Highest number of job vacancies were found in the following sectors – Table 3:
Accommodation and food services (19,365)
Retail trades (12,970)
Construction (11,670)
Professional, scientific and technical services (11,360)
Health care and social assistance (8,015)
Transportation and warehousing (7,435)
Educational services (7,220)
Manufacturing  (6,315)
Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services (6,000)
Other services (except public administration) (4,550)
Highest number of job vacancies were found in the following occupations in British Columbia– Table 1 & 2:
Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations [6711]  (8,120)
Retail salespersons [6421] (6,370)
Transport truck drivers [7511] (4,775)
Cooks [6322] (4,300)
Construction trades helpers and labourers [7611] (3,045)
Food and beverage servers [6513] (2,960)
Carpenters [7271] (2,480)
Light duty cleaners [6731] (2,105)
Store shelf stockers, clerks and order fillers [6622] (1,870)
Material handlers [7452] (1,555)
Source: Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage Survey

12. Job Vacancies by Industry - #’s
29/12/2018
Job Vacancies by Industry - #’s
Industry
2018 Q2
Vacancy Rate
Average Offered Wage
Accommodation and food services
19,365
7.6 $
Retail trade
12,970
4.5 $
Construction
11,670
7.0 $
Professional, scientific and technical services
11,360
4.2 $
Health care and social assistance
8,015
3.0 $
Transportation and warehousing
7,435
6.3 $
Educational services
7,220
2.0 $
Manufacturing
6,315
4.0 $
Source: Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage Survey

13. Job Vacancies by Industry - Vacancy Rates
29/12/2018
Job Vacancies by Industry - Vacancy Rates
Industry
Total Vacancies
Vacancy Rate
Average Offered Wage
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting
3,860 9 $
Accommodation and food services
19,365
7.6 $
Construction
11,670 7 $
Transportation and warehousing
7,435
6.3 $
Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services
6,000
5.5 $
Other services (except public administration)
4,550 $
Arts, entertainment and recreation
2,555
4.8 $
Applies to government-funded infrastructure projects valued at $15 million or greater
Interpretation One
Applies to projects that received $15 M in provincial funding
Does not apply to projects of any size that receive less that $15M
Interpretation Two
Apples to any project with a total value of $15M or more and that receives provincial funding of any amount

14. 29/12/2018
EI Beneficiaries
There were 42,200 EI recipients in British Columbia in August, virtually unchanged from July (-370; -0.9%).
In the 12 months to July, the number of beneficiaries in the province fell by 16.6%.
Month over month, EI beneficiaries declined slightly across almost all occupational groups, with the strongest declines in business, finance and administration occupations (-250; -5.2%) and occupations in education, law and social, community and government services (-230; -4.9%). Slight increases were seen in natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations (+220; +4.8%) and in trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations (+210; +1.8%)

15. Unemployed
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

16. Not in labour force and wanting work
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

17. Those not in the labour force and not wanting work
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

18. 29/12/2018
Wages
I want to talk about wages but I don’t really have an amazing graph to show you. Wages are a key indicator but wage growth has not happened in a way we expected with a tight labour market. It took a while
B.C. has the highest wage growth in Canada so far in 2018 (4.9%). Canada = 3.1%.
Since January B.C. has led the country in most months. However, the 5%-6% increments were 2%-3% in the last couple of months.
Industry YOY
24.9% Agriculture 7
9.1% Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas 8 9
8.2% Utilities
8.6% Manufacturing
11.3% Professional, scientific and technical services
7.7% Accommodation and food services

19. Regional Employment Change over 15 Years
(2002 to 2017)
+379,100
+69,500
-2,000
+5,200
+3,800
+53,100
+5,800
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

20. Regional Share of Employment
2002 & 2017
2% 2%
2% 2%
4% 3%
11% 11%
16% 16%
3% 3%
62% 64%
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

21. Cariboo Monthly Labour Market Report:
October 2018
Top 3 Major Projects (construction started):
Location
Est. Capital Cost
Cariboo Connector - Highway 97
Prince George
$440M
Kelly Road Secondary School Replacement
$44M
Highway 97 Parsnip River Bridge Replacement
$32M
Source: Statistics Canada, March 2018 – CANSIM
Reproduced and distributed on an ‘as is’ basis with the permission of Statistics Canada
BC LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION OFFICE
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate ppt = percentage point

22. Kootenay Monthly Labour Market Report:
October 2018
Top 3 Major Projects (construction started):
Location
Est. Capital Cost
Red Mountain Ski Resort Expansion
Rossland
$900M
Wildstone Golf and Residential Development
Cranbrook
$750M
Elk Valley Water Quality Plan
Sparwood
$600M
Source: Statistics Canada, March 2018 – CANSIM
Reproduced and distributed on an ‘as is’ basis with the permission of Statistics Canada
BC LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION OFFICE
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate ppt = percentage point

23. Lower Mainland-Southwest
Monthly Labour Market Report:
October 2018
Top 3 Major Projects (construction started):
Location
Est. Capital Cost
River District Development
Vancouver
$4.0B
Vancouver International Airport Upgrades
Richmond
$1.7B
King George Station Mixed-Use Development
$1.6B
Source: Statistics Canada, March 2018 – CANSIM
Reproduced and distributed on an ‘as is’ basis with the permission of Statistics Canada
BC LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION OFFICE
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate ppt = percentage point

24. Prince Rupert, Terrace, & others
North Coast and Nechako
Monthly Labour Market Report:
October 2018
Top 3 Major Projects (construction started):
Location
Est. Capital Cost
Ridley Island Propane Export Terminal
Prince Rupert
$475M
Port of Stewart Expansion – Phase 3
Stewart
$70M
Highway 16 Passing Lanes and Intersection
Prince Rupert, Terrace, & others
$38M
Source: Statistics Canada, March 2018 – CANSIM
Reproduced and distributed on an ‘as is’ basis with the permission of Statistics Canada
BC LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION OFFICE
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate ppt = percentage point

25. Northeast Monthly Labour Market Report:
October 2018
Top 3 Major Projects (construction started):
Location
Est. Capital Cost
Site C Clean Energy Project
Fort St. John
$10.7B
Saturn Compressor Facility Expansion
Dawson Creek
$930M
The Station Town Centre
$500M
Source: Statistics Canada, March 2018 – CANSIM
Reproduced and distributed on an ‘as is’ basis with the permission of Statistics Canada
BC LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION OFFICE
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate ppt = percentage point

26. Thompson-Okanagan Monthly Labour Market Report:
October 2018
Top 3 Major Projects (construction started):
Location
Est. Capital Cost
Wilden Development
Kelowna
$2.1B
Ponderosa Residential Development
Peachland
$1.0B
Lakestone Resort Development
Lake Country
Source: Statistics Canada, March 2018 – CANSIM
Reproduced and distributed on an ‘as is’ basis with the permission of Statistics Canada
BC LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION OFFICE
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate ppt = percentage point

27. Vancouver Island and Coast
Monthly Labour Market Report:
October 2018
Top 3 Major Projects (construction started):
Location
Est. Capital Cost
Westhills Green Neighbourhood
Langford
$2.0B
CFB Esquimalt Projects
Esquimalt
$1.3B
Bear Mountain Development
$1.2B
Source: Statistics Canada, March 2018 – CANSIM
Reproduced and distributed on an ‘as is’ basis with the permission of Statistics Canada
BC LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION OFFICE
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate ppt = percentage point

28. 10 Year Sources of Labour Supply
29/12/2018
10 Year Sources of Labour Supply
Forecast
903,000
Additions to Labour Supply
50%
Young people starting work
454,000
27%
Immigrants
243,000 8%
Migrants from other provinces
76,000
15%
Additional supply requirement
130,000
Source: BC Labour Market Outlook

29. Projected Demand for Skills and Competencies, B.C., 2018-2028

30. Questions? Jeremy Higgs
Executive Director / Chief Labor Market Economist
Research Information and Analysis Branch
Workforce Innovation and Division Responsible for Skills Training