1. EUropean CLimate and weather Events: Interpretation and Attribution
Peter Stott
Met Office Hadley Centre

2. EUCLEIA EUropean CLimate and weather Events: Interpretation and Attribution Started January 2014
EUCLEIA: 3 year project under the FP7-SPACE Call, that brings together 11 European partners with an outstanding scientific profile in climate research:
The project aims to develop a quasi-operational attribution system, well calibrated on a set of test cases for European extreme weather, that will provide to targeted groups of users, well verified, well understood assessments on the extent to which certain weather-related risks have changed due to human influences on climate.
TEST CASES:
Heat waves
Cold spells
Droughts
Floods
Storm surges
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3. Near-real time attribution service
ETHZ
UEDIN
IC3
DMI
Reading
Univ
HZG
KNMI
CNRS
UVSQ
UOxf
Met Office
WP3 (Pete Walton, Oxford)
Stakeholder User Panel
WP4 (Hans von Storch, HZG)
Stakeholder Engagement
WP5 (Myles Allen, Oxford)
Methodologies / Framing Issues
WP6 (Robert Vautard, CNRS CEA)
Evaluation & Diagnostics
WP7 (Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, KNMI)
Targeted Test Cases
WP8 (Nikos Christidis, Met Office)
Near-real time attribution service
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4. Objectives Derive requirements from targeted user groups
Develop methods for event attribution including development of experimental designs and clear ways of framing
Identify key processes driving extreme events and develop methodologies for representing level of confidence in attribution results
Demonstrate the utility of the attribution system on a set of test cases of European weather and climate extremes
Deliver quasi-operational attribution assessments on a range of timescales in the aftermath of extreme events
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5. Highlights of work so far
Substantial input to BAMS annual reports explaining extreme events of previous year from a climate perspective
10 out of 34 papers submitted to 2015 edition involving EUCLEIA input
Significant contribution to capacity building through editorship, IDAG, ACE
User perspectives much better understood (WP3, WP4)
In depth studies of Paris and Baltic Sea region stakeholders (D4.2)
Understanding of wider stakeholder needs (D3.4)
A key component of project in its pre-operational phase is to test developing capability to assess specific weather and climate events (WP7)
UK temperatures 2014 (Fast track)
UK stormy winter 2013/14 (Targetted)

6. Highlights of work so far
Development of observational basis (WP6)
Understanding of observational requirements (D6.1)
Development of observational indices
Development of methodology for assessing robustness of attribution assessments (WP6; D6.5, MS6, MS7)
Two papers submitted to peer-reviewed publications concerning quantifying reliability of attribution results (Bellprat et al, Lott and Stott)
Evaluation of mechanisms for temperature extremes in Europe(Kreuger et al, 2015)
Prototype quasi-operational attribution modelling system developed (WP8, MS10)
60km resolution HadGEM3-A model
Supplemented with fast-track methods
Successful General Assembly
Held in Paris during Our Common Future Conference
Substantial contribution to Attribution of Extremes session at Our Common Future
For development of observations, extension of ERA-interim with operational analyses, new hydrological dataset, new stratospheric warming indices