1. - Adjunct Professor John Stanley
Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies
The University of Sydney Business School
October 2018

2. Common goals for cities and regions
Increase economic productivity
Reduce environmental footprint
Increase social inclusion and reduce inequality
Improve health and safety outcomes
Promote intergenerational equity
Engage communities widely
Take an integrated approach to the above goals
OUTCOME GOALS 1-5 ARE HELPED BY GETTING PEOPLE OUT OF CARS AND IN TO PUBLIC AND ACTIVE TRANSPORT

3. The growing productivity gap: 1992-2012 (NIEIR)
The growing productivity gap: (NIEIR). The foundation for Plan Melbourne’s National Employment and Innovation Clusters
Productivity versus travel time to CBD (Melbourne 2012)
Make legend bigger

4. Promoting productivity + sharing the benefits = efficiency plus equity
PlanMelbourne’s National Employment and Innovation Clusters are the key
NEICs are a way to promote urban productivity growth
Great accessibility of the clusters, including to/from growth areas, is vital
The NEICs, and middle suburbs, need more planning/budget focus

5. Preferred land use development direction = compact polycentric plus corridors plus neighbourhoods
Bo01, Malmö, Sweden.
Overall density ~40 dw/Ha.
Strong CBD and close surrounds
Small number of high tech/knowledge-based clusters (NEICs in PlanMelbourne )
Major urban renewal areas
Strategic transit corridors (should be in Plan Melbourne)
Series of 20 minute neighbourhoods
Slower Melbourne fringe growth (70+% infill – population not houses)
Higher fringe densities
Regional model similar
Population is growing too fast for integration and adjustment and infrastructure and services

6. Population growth pressures: Components of Victorian population growth, (quarterly data) (Source: ABS 2017, Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat )
Big jump in OS migration

7. Melbourne’s population: growing very quickly but away from its jobs (Source: Author, from ABS census data)

8. Do residents of the faster growing outer LGAs reap income benefits
Do residents of the faster growing outer LGAs reap income benefits? (Cardinia, Casey, Hume, Melton, Whittlesea and Wyndham - Source: NIEIR)

9. Capital requirement to remove the productivity gap for 6 fast growing outer municipalities (Source: NIEIR)
Cardinia, Casey, Hume, Melton, Whittlesea and Wyndham accounted for 47% of Melbourne’s population growth
How much extra capital would have been needed for these LGAs to increase Gross Product/Working Age population at the state average rate from 1992 to 2017?
Four core drivers, or ‘pillars’, of regional growth (NIEIR SOR)
Non-dwelling capital stock; knowledge creation capacity; supply chain strength; and skill employed
Estimated capital requirement is over $125b for the backlog accumulated over 25 years and an additional$140b by 2031 under business-as-usual
Citywide, overcoming increased traffic congestion adds an estimated $160b
Adding these up and allowing for a bit of overlap suggests around $375b additional investment will be required over (>half gov’t responsibility)
This represents underinvestment in:
Transport infrastructure capital stock; Commercial capital stock; Community capital stock (e.g. hospitals and schools); Industrial development; Skills development and; Knowledge creation investment.

10. Regional Victoria has the opportunity to take a greater population share but must tackle its productivity challenge
NIEIR analysis
This capital funding task is beyond current funding horizons
Slowing the rate of population growth seems part of the solution
Can regional Victoria play a bigger role in catering for population growth?
Without transplanted sprawl
A major productivity challenge needs to be overcome

11. Directions for local government?
Local government needs a view about a sustainable rate of population growth for Melbourne, regional Victoria and Australia
Based on conversations with its communities that lead to a settlement strategy
In my view, the right outcome will include a slower rate of Victorian/Melbourne population growth than at present, meaning a lower net OS migration rate, and a faster rate of population increase in regional Victoria
Melbourne’s middle suburbs need to cater for a much bigger share of population growth
Mainly along strategic transit corridors (circumferential rail?)
20 minute neighbourhoods must be a key planning focus
Investment spending on Melbourne’s fringe needs to be boosted substantially, its population growth rate slowed substantially (3% p.a. max?) and densities increased
To a minimum of ~25 dw/Ha, as Toronto is adopting for greenfield (20 minute neighbourhood base)
The little stuff (e.g., place making) is just as as important as the big stuff
For Regional Victoria to play a greater role
The regional productivity challenge must be overcome
Needs a targeted approach (based on competitive advantage and much better PT accessibility)
Focus on better life chances for children and youth life in the regions
If local government showed a leadership role here, it would help make the case that it should partner with the state in strategic LUT planning for Melbourne and Victoria more broadly