1. Technology Assessment http://www.managementsupport.com

2. Outline Management of Technology Sociotechnical Change
Technology Planning
Technology Forecasting
Managing Forecasting
Methods and Issues
Lifecycles
Monitoring
Tools for Trending
Extrapolating Technological Trends
Expert Opinion

3. Result of Technology’s Increasing Significance
Technology assessment
originally driven by concern regarding the negative effects of technology on the environment and society.
now much more encompassing
Technology forecasting
assessment requires anticipation, therefore a need for technology forecasting.

4. Product Life Cycle 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 Years from Launch Profit Revenue
(x100,000)
Maximum
Profit
Maximum
Sales Volume
Withdrawn from market
Sales
Revenue
(x1,000,000)
Maturity 4 4
Innovation
Growth
Decline
Profit 3 3 2 2
Sales Volume 1 1
Commercial
launch
Years from Launch

5. Impact/Technology Assessment
It is the systematic study of the effects on society, that may occur when a technology is introduced, extended, or modified, with emphasis on the impacts that are unintended, indirect, or delayed. (Joseph Coates, 1976)
It should be viewed by technology managers as professional obligation and social responsibility
It’s results form the “big picture” concerns that should shape the context of technological planning

6. Forecasting-Technology Management Relationship
Forecasting is intended to bring information to the technology management process
Predicts possible technological changes that might affect corporate goals
Provides useful information to decision makers
The shape and format of forecasting are determined by
Targeted audience (nation, organization, business unit, group of units…)
Audience goals

7. Stages of Technological Innovation
Stage 3: Verification
laboratory experiment that confirms the validity of the proposed theory or design concept
Stage 4: Laboratory Demonstration
first primitive model of the technology concept in a useful form
Stage 5: Field Trial
full-scale approach or field trial that ultimately becomes the prototype or pilot-plant

8. Competitive Technology Lifecycle
Critical Dimension
Traditional
technology
Emergent
technology
Time
Ex: Vacuum tubes v. transistors
: Sail v. steamships

9. Fisher-Pry Model Substitution model
Symmetrical around the 50% penetration point
y(t) = 1/(1 + e-b(t-a))
y(t) = fraction of the potential market served by the new technology at time t
a = the time the new technology reaches 50% of the total market
b = rate of adoption

10. Technological Description/Foresight
Technology description is a subset of technology foresight
Technology foresight involves predicting and preparing for the opportunities and challenges that new technologies offer
Noted authors Dr. van Wyk & Dr. Jonathan Litton

11. Choosing Experts Opinion Capture Technique
Six factors are to consider in choosing a technique to
capture experts opinion (Nelms and Porter, 1985):
Logistics: resources largely determine the method
Feedback: minimizing delay between successive feedback is desirable
Communication medium: is a function of access to experts, resources, and time