1. Oregon State University, USA
ANATOMY OF SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME {on the web at by
N. Scott Urquhart
Oregon State University, USA
and
Anthony R. Olsen
US EPA

2. STARMAP FUNDING Space-Time Aquatic Resources Modeling and Analysis Program
The work reported here today was developed under the STAR Research Assistance Agreement CR awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado State University. This presentation has not been formally reviewed by EPA.  The views expressed here are solely those of presenters and STARMAP, the Program they represent. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in these presentation.
This research is funded by
U.S.EPA – Science To Achieve
Results (STAR) Program
Cooperative
Agreement
# CR

3. THE AUTHORS N. SCOTT URQUHART ANTHONY (Tony) R. OLSEN
Trained in Statistics
About 40 Years of Experience in Applications
Worked With Ecologists in Desert, Arctic, Pacific Northwest
Many Surveys with Rural Sociologists and Ag Economists
Including 10 years with EPA’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP)
ACADEMIC And AGENCY; PLANT And ANIMAL
ANTHONY (Tony) R. OLSEN
30+ Years of Experience in Private and Government Applications
Worked With Atmospheric Modelers And Air Pollution Field Scientists
Survey Experience With Health Professionals And Large-scale National Resource Monitoring
Now Statistical Lead with EPA’s EMAP

4. EVOLUTION OF THE “ANATOMY”
The first step in the development of the ANATOMY focused on experimental design situations.
Served as the structure for several part-semester courses in advanced statistical methods at New Mexico State University
Eventually published as
Urquhart, N. S. (1981). Anatomy of a study. HortScience 16:
Experience with EMAP led to its expansion to surveys

5. TODAY’S CONTEXT for SURVEYS
“EMAP-type Situations” EMAP = US EPA’S Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program
Estimate Status, Changes In Indicators
Estimate Status, Changes, In Extent
Describe Associations ...

6. Source: EMAP Northeast Lakes Study
Objective #1: Estimate the status, changes and trends in selected indicators of the condition of our Nation's ecological resources
on a regional scale
on a regional scale
with known confidence
with known confidence
17.6%
± 10%
6.8%
31.8%
± 6%
± 8%
43.8%
± 12%
Hypereutrophic
Eutrophic
Mesotrophic
Oligotrophic
Hypereutrophic
Eutrophic
Mesotrophic
Oligotrophic
(N=258)
Source: EMAP Northeast Lakes Study

7. Source: EMAP Northeast Lakes Study
Objective #2: Estimate the status, changes and trends
in the extent and geographic coverage of our Nation's
ecological resources on a regional scale with known
confidence
Northeast
Adir
NEU
C/L/P
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
North
east
Adir
NEU
C/L/P
Est.
Lake # SE
Area
11,455
1,506
5,689
4,280
1,251
285
1,206
1,048
4,030
1,082
2,099
850
814
395
758
254
Adir = Adirondacks;
NEU = New England Uplands;
C/L/P = Coast & Lake Plains
Source: EMAP Northeast Lakes Study

8. Source: EMAP Mid-Atlantic Highlands Assessment
Objective #3: Describe associations
between indicators of anthropogenic stress
and indicators of condition
Proportion of Stream Length
(Insufficient
Data)
Good
Fair
Poor
Fish Index of Biotic Integrity
Relative Ranking of Stressors
Source: EMAP Mid-Atlantic Highlands Assessment

9. WHO MUST COMMUNICATE Ecologists & Other Biologists Statisticians
Geographers
Geographic Information Specialists (GIS)
Information Managers
Quality Assurance Personnel
Managers, At Various Levels

10. “SAMPLING” A WORD OF MANY MEANINGS
Statisticians Often Associate It With Survey Sampling
An Ecologist May Associate It with the Selection of Local Sites or Material
A Laboratory Scientist May Associate It With the Selection Of Material to be Analyzed from Material Supplied
Common General Meaning, Varied Specific Meanings

11. THE SPECIAL NEED The Statistical Selection of a Sampling Unit,
Communication Demands a Distinction Between
The Local Process of Evaluating a Response, and
The Statistical Selection of a Sampling Unit,
For example,
A LAKE
A POINT ON A STEAM

12. THE SPECIAL NEED - continued
The Terms
Response Design
Sampling Design or Survey Design
Can Be Used to Make this Distinction
But a Complex Ecological Survey Clearly Has More Parts Than These!

13. BASIC ROLES
Survey Design Tells Us Where to Go to Collect Sample Information or Material
Response Design Tells Us What to Do Once We Get There
But These Two Components Exist in a Broader Context

14. AN IMPORTANT DISTINCTION
Monitoring Strategy
Conceptual
Impacted by Objectives
Addressable Without Regard to the Inference Strategy
Inference Strategy

15. AN IMPORTANT DISTINCTION - continued
Monitoring Strategy
Inference Strategy
Places to Evaluate the Response – “the WHERE”
Relation Between Points Evaluated and the Population
IE, the Basis for Inference

16. SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE
Monitoring Strategy
Universe Model
Statistical Population
Domain Design
Response Design
Inference Strategy
Survey Design
Temporal Design
Quality Assurance Design
These components
exist regardless
of the
inference strategy
These components
exist for any
monitoring strategy

17. SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE
MONITORING STRATEGY
Universe Model
Statistical Population
Domain Design
Response Design
INFERENCE STRATEGY
Survey Design
Temporal Design
Quality Assurance Design

18. The MONITORING STRATEGY
The MONITORING STRATEGY MUST RESPOND TO
Monitoring Objectives
State of Knowledge in Ecological Sciences
Characteristics of Ecological Resource(s) of Interest
EXPECTED FUNDING Compared To COSTS
Operational Constraints

19. SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE
MONITORING STRATEGY
Universe Model
Statistical Population
Domain Design
Response Design
INFERENCE STRATEGY
Survey Design
Temporal Design
Quality Assurance Design

20. The UNIVERSE MODEL
Reality (Universe): Ecological Entity Within a Defined Geographic Area to Be Monitored
Model of the Universe:
Development of a Monitoring Approach Requires Construction of a Model for the Universe
Elements Of The Universe Model: Set of Entities Composing The Entire Universe

21. The UNIVERSE MODEL
Population Description and Its Sampling Require Definition of the “Units” in the Population
Discrete Units:
Lakes May Be Viewed This Way
Continuous Structure in Space of Some Dimension:
2-space: forests or agroecosystems
1-space: Streams
3-space: Ground Water

22. THE MODEL FOR STREAMS Strahler Orders
Second Order
Second
Order
First Orders
First Order
Third Order

23. SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE
MONITORING STRATEGY
Universe Model
Statistical Population
Domain Design
Response Design
INFERENCE STRATEGY
Survey Design
Temporal Design
Quality Assurance Design

24. The STATISTICAL POPULATION
The Collection of Units (as modeled) Over Some Region of Definition
Spatial
Temporal
SPATIAL And TEMPORAL
Population Definition Could Include Features Which Depend on Response Values
EX: acid sensitive streams at upper elevations

25. SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE
MONITORING STRATEGY
Universe Model
Statistical Population
Domain Design
Response Design
INFERENCE STRATEGY
Survey Design
Temporal Design
Quality Assurance Design

26. The DOMAIN Design
Specifies Subpopulations or “Domains” of Special Interest
May Specify Meaningful Comparisons Between Domains
Similar to Planned Comparisons in Experimental Design Situations
Domain Design May Depend on Response Values
Ex: Warm Versus Cold Water Lakes

27. The DOMAIN DESIGN - continued
Specifies Subpopulations or “Domains” of Special Interest
Determined From Defining Factors For The Monitoring Activity
Must Have Critical Connection To Clients
Other Domains May Be Used For Analysis, Without Having Been Used In Defining The Monitoring Strategy
EX: EMAP domains include ECOAREAS and STANDARD FEDERAL REGIONS

28. SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE
MONITORING STRATEGY
Universe Model
Statistical Population
Domain Design
Response Design
INFERENCE STRATEGY
Survey Design
Temporal Design
Quality Assurance Design

29. The RESPONSE Design The Response Design Specifies
The Process of Obtaining A Response
At An Individual Element (Site)
Of The Resource
During A Single Monitoring Period
Response: What Will Be Determined On An Element –
Needs To Be Responsive to the Objectives of the Monitoring Activity

30. The RESPONSE Design - continued
EMAP Responses Focus On Indicators of
STRESS and
Condition
The Response Design Also Defines
Plot Design
Measurement Protocols
Support Region – area around the site where material is collected, or measurements are taken
Data Reduction Protocols
Calculation Of The Final Indicator Value for the Element

31. The RESPONSE Design - Continued
For example, consider a response related to macroinvertebrates in streams
RESPONSE = proportion EPT (This is the proportion of collected macrobenthos organisms, mainly insects, which fall in the taxonomic classes of Ephemeroptera , Plecoptera , or Trichoptera. Low values indicate polluted streams; high values indicate rather pristine streams)

32. The RESPONSE Design - continued - 2
... response related to macrobenthos ...
The COLLECTION UNITS could be cm x 30cm areas, systematically organized, at the stream site, sampled with a “Surber sampler”
The EVALUATION UNIT could be a jar containing the composite of all macroinvertebrate organisms collected at the 10 collection sites, or
The EVALUATION UNIT also could be a jar containing a 1/6 subsample of the composite of macroinvertebrate organisms collected in the collection units.

33. The RESPONSE Design - continued - 3
... response related to macrobenthos ...
The LABORATORY EVALUATION of the material would consist of determining and recording the taxa (like family, genus, or species) of each organism in the evaluation material
The RESPONSE would be determined by computing the number of organisms in the evaluation material belonging to the E, P, T taxonomic classes, and dividing this by the number of organisms classified.

34. SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE
MONITORING STRATEGY
Universe Model
Statistical Population
Domain Design
Response Design
INFERENCE STRATEGY
Survey Design
Temporal Design
Quality Assurance Design

35. The INFERENCE STRATEGY
Is The Basis For Scientific Inference
Provides The Connection Between Objectives and the Monitoring Strategy
Monitoring Strategy Usually Must Rely on Obtaining Information on a Subset Of All Possible Elements in the Universe
Specifies Which Elements of the Universe Will Have Responses Determined on Them
Can Be Based On Either ... (continued )

36. The INFERENCE STRATEGY (continued)
... Connection ...
... Subset ...
... Have Responses
Can Be Based On Either
Judgment Selection Of Units
Inferential Validity Rests on Knowledge Of Relation Between the Universe And the Units Evaluated
Probability Selection Of Units
(The Focus Here)

37. SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE
MONITORING STRATEGY
Universe Model
Statistical Population
Domain Design
Response Design
INFERENCE STRATEGY
Survey Design
Temporal Design
Quality Assurance Design

38. The SURVEY Design Probability Based Survey Designs Are Considered Here
May Be Somewhat Limited To Sedentary Resources
Positive Features (As An Observational Study)
Permit Clear Statistical Inference to Well-Defined Populations
Measurements Often can be Made in Natural Settings, Giving Rise to Greater Realism Eventual Results

39. The SURVEY DESIGN - CONTINUED
Disadvantages
Limited Control Over Values of Predictor Variables
Restricts Causative Inference
Usually Will Produce Inaccessible Sampling Points
Good - For Inference
Bad - For Logistics

40. The SURVEY DESIGN - CONTINUED
Execution of a Sampling Plan Requires
A Sampling Frame
A way to identify elements in the population
Usually somewhat inaccurate for ecological resources
Example selecting vegetation sites along the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon

41. VIEW DOWN TRANSECT AT MILE 12.3

42. CLIFF AT MILE 135.2 (PARTIAL HEIGHT)

43. The SURVEY DESIGN - CONTINUED
Execution of a Sampling Plan Requires
A Sampling Frame
A way to identify elements in the population
Usually somewhat inaccurate for ecological resources
Example selecting vegetation sites along the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon
Example: Frame for selecting field sites on streams in the Western US

44. FRAME ERRORS TO BE DOCUMENTED SHORTLY
Water Body Size
Flow Status -- re Perennial
Identified As Perennial, but not correct
Wastes Effort Of Field Crews
Identified as Non-perennial, but Really is Perennial
Missed Resource
Inaccurate Assessment

45. EMAP-West Stream/river Length (km ± 95% CI) from Peck, et al (2002) - EMAP symposium

46. EMAP-West Stream/river Length (km ± 95% CI) from Peck, et al (2002) - EMAP symposium

47. EMAP-West Stream/river Length (km ± 95% CI) from Peck, et al (2002) - EMAP symposium

48. The SURVEY DESIGN - CONTINUED
Execution of a Sampling Plan Requires
A Sampling Frame
A way to identify elements in the population
Usually somewhat inaccurate for ecological resources
Example selecting vegetation sites along the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon
Example: Frame for selecting field sites on streams in the Western US
May change over time
As, for example, land use changes

49. SITE SELECTION Needs to Accommodate Realities Such As
Frame Imperfection
Frame Which Changes Over Time
Sites nearly Uniform Over the Resource
But with substantial randomization
Supports Variable Probability of Selection
Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified Sampling = GRTS
The topic of the next session

50. The EMAP SURVEY Design
Assures Representation and Inference to Populations
Adapted to Resource Characteristics
Emphasizes Spatial Allocation of Samples
Uses Two-phase Sampling; Phase I
Based on a Randomized Point Grid and Associated Areas

51. EMAP EXAMPLE OF SELECTED SITES
Mid-Appalachian Highlands Stream Pilot

53. EMAP EXAMPLE OF SELECTED SITES
Western Stream Pilot
Non-perennial/perennial survey
Survey of perennial streams

55. SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE
MONITORING STRATEGY
Universe Model
Statistical Population
Domain Design
Response Design
INFERENCE STRATEGY
Survey Design
Temporal Design
Quality Assurance Design

56. The TEMPORAL Design
The TEMPORAL DESIGN specifies the pattern of revisits to sites selected by the Survey Design
Sampled population units are partitioned into one (degenerate case) or more PANELS.
Each population unit in the same panel has the same temporal pattern of revisits.
Panel definition could be probabilistic or systematic
Several temporal designs follow

57. TEMPORAL DESIGN: ROTATING PANEL

58. TEMPORAL DESIGN: ROTATING PANEL
A Rotating Panel Design is the Temporal Design Used by the National Agricultural Statistical Service (US - “NASS”) for Some Surveys
This Temporal Design is “Connected” in the Experimental Design Sense
It is Fairly Well Suited For Estimation “Status,” but not Particularly Powerful For Detecting Trend Over Intermediate Time Spans

59. TEMPORAL DESIGN: SERIALLY ALTERNATING
This Temporal Design is “Unconnected” in the Experimental Design Sense. This was the Temporal Design Initially Prescribed For EMAP, But ...

60. TEMPORAL DESIGN: AUGMENTED SERIALLY ALTERNATING
This Temporal Design Is “Connected” In The Experimental Design Sense, but Consider Its potential for Trampling Effects.

61. TEMPORAL DESIGN: PARTIALLY AUGMENTED SERIALLY ALTERNATING
This Temporal Design is “Connected” in The Experimental Design Sense, but is Weak for Estimating Period Effects.

62. TEMPORAL DESIGN: SERIALLY ALTERNATING WITH CONSECUTIVE YEAR REVISITS
This Temporal Design is “Connected” in the Experimental Design Sense
But It Provides Visits to Only Half as Many Sites as the Base Serially Alternating Design.

63. TEMPORAL DESIGN: SPLIT PANEL SERIALLY ALTERNATING PLUS SERIALLY ALTERNATING WITH CONSECUTIVE YEAR REVISITS
This Temporal Design is “Connected” in the Experimental Design Sense

64. TEMPORAL DESIGN: SPLIT PANEL SERIALLY ALTERNATING PLUS SERIALLY ALTERNATING WITH WITHIN YEAR AND CONSECUTIVE YEAR REVISITS THE TEMPORAL DESIGN IN USE BY EMAP - SURFACE WATERS

65. THE REVISIT SPLIT PANEL OF THE THE TEMPORAL DESIGN IN USE BY EMAP - SURFACE WATERS

66. TEMPORAL DESIGN: SPLIT PANEL SERIALLY ALTERNATING PLUS SERIALLY ALTERNATING WITH WITHIN YEAR AND CONSECUTIVE YEAR REVISITS THE TEMPORAL DESIGN IN USE BY EMAP - SURFACE WATERS
This Temporal Design is “Connected” in the Experimental Design Sense
It Also Supports Estimation of the Site by Time Period (site by year) Interaction.
Revisits To About 10% Of Sites Allocates about 30% of Resources To Revisits

67. SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE
MONITORING STRATEGY
Universe Model
Statistical Population
Domain Design
Response Design
INFERENCE STRATEGY
Survey Design
Temporal Design
Quality Assurance Design

68. QUALITY ASSURANCE DESIGN
Defines Those Activities Intended to Provide Data of Known Quality:
Blind duplicates
Accepted chemical standards, Etc
Can Provide Valid Estimates of the Variance of Pure Measurement Error

69. END OF PLANNED PRESENTATION

70. RELEVANT COMPONENTS OF VARIANCE FOR EMAP
POPULATION = LAKE or STREAM, for example
YEAR -
YEAR by SITE -
CREW -
SHORT TERM TEMPORAL - index window -
PROTOCOL ERROR -
MEASUREMENT ERROR -

71. RELEVANT COMPONENTS OF VARIANCE FOR EMAP
WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO ESTIMATE THESE?
WHICH ONES SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN “RESIDUAL” VARIANCE
WHICH TREND MUST OVERCOME TO BE DEMONSTRATED?

72. COMPARISONS TO USUAL PERSPECTIVES OF FINITE POPULATION SAMPLING
UNIVERSE MODEL (AS DISTINCT FROM THE UNIVERSE)
NOT RELEVANT
VIEWED AS A LIST
POPULATION
VERY SIMILAR, OTHER THAN DIFFERENCES IMPLICIT IN THE UNIVERSE MODEL

73. COMPARISONS TO USUAL PERSPECTIVES OF FINITE POPULATION SAMPLING continued
DOMAIN DESIGN
USUALLY NOT EXPLICITLY ACKNOWLEDGED, BUT VIEWED AS PART OF THE DESIGN PROCESS
RESPONSE DESIGN
QUESTIONNAIRE CONSTRUCTION AND DESIGN
SOME ELEMENTS OF INTERVIEW PROTOCOLS
SURVEY DESIGN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR

74. COMPARISONS TO USUAL PERSPECTIVES OF FINITE POPULATION SAMPLING continued - 2
TEMPORAL DESIGN
PRESENT, BUT
MANY FINITE POPULATION SURVEYS ARE ONE-TIME
MANY LARGE SURVEYS HAVE A TEMPORAL DIMENSION
CHANGE USUALLY IS OF FAR MORE INTEREST THAN TREND
SURVEY LITERATURE DISTINGUISHES BETWEEN
GROSS CHANGE - follows units across time
NET CHANGE - recognizes that change can occur in both the response and in “who” is in the population

75. QUALITY ASSURANCE DESIGN
COMPARISONS TO USUAL PERSPECTIVES OF FINITE POPULATION SAMPLING continued - 3
QUALITY ASSURANCE DESIGN
SURVEYS OF HUMANS (OR BUSINESSES, ETC) HAVE A VERY SIMILAR INTENT, BUT DETAILS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY
SUPERVISION IN PHONE SURVEYS
QUESTIONS TO CONFIRM RESPONDENT CONSISTENCY
REINTERVIEWS and SIMILAR REEVALUATIONS

76. SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE
MONITORING STRATEGY
UNIVERSE MODEL
STATISTICAL POPULATION
DOMAIN DESIGN
RESPONSE DESIGN
INFERENCE STRATEGY
SURVEY DESIGN
TEMPORAL DESIGN
QUALITY ASSURANCE DESIGN
These components
exist regardless
of the
inference strategy
These components
exist for any
monitoring strategy

77. LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION
Links to various monitoring programs,
To the program’s site
One to its methods, and
One to a current report.
As links change in an unpredictable fashion,
The “search words” should provide a quick path to the current link.
Speaker on this program representing that program

78. LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION (Continued)
Adelaide Coastal Waters Study
Program site: (more technical of the two)
Current Report:
Methods:
Search words: adelaide coastal waters study; acws au
Speaker: David Fox, University of Adelaide

79. LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION (Continued)
Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Program (ABMP)
Program site:
Current Report:
Methods:
Search words: alberta biodiversity monitoring program; abmp ca
Speaker: None, unfortunately

80. LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION (Continued)
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP)
Program site:
Current Report:
Methods:
Search words: epa environmental monitoring assessment program; emap epa
Speaker here: Tony Olsen

81. LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION (Continued)
Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA)
Program site:
Current Report: (for example)
Methods: (accessible at this link)
Search words: forest inventory analysis; FIA USDA
Speaker here: Mike Williams

82. LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION (Continued)
National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS)
Program site:
Current Reports:
Research:
Search words: national agricultural statistical service; nass
Speaker here: Carol House

83. LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION (Continued)
National Park Inventory and Monitoring Program
Program site:
Current Reports:
Methods:
Search words: national park monitoring natural resources; nps im
Speaker here: Steve Fancy

84. LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION (Continued)
National Resources Inventory( NRI)
Program site:
Current Report:
Methods:
Search words: national resources inventory; web path: nrcs to technical to NRI
Speakers here: Wayne Fuller & Jeff Goebel

85. LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION (Continued)
National Wetlands Inventory (NWI)
Program site:
Current Report:
Methods: documented in above report
Search words: national wetlands inventory
Speaker here: Tom Dahl

86. LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION (Continued)
LEARNING MATERIALS RELATED TO ENVIRONMENTAL SAMPLING
(From a course at Oregon State University)
ST571
Presentation materials from talks presented here will be available at
Opportunities->meetings;
publications -> presentations;
Learning materials