1. E-Commerce Futures
Bill Thompson
12/31/2018

2. Introduction E-commerce does not happen in isolation
It depends on all aspects of the network
It is fundamental to the network society
Straight Marxist approach
Social/political superstructure determined by economic infrastructure
So what will the network look like?
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3. Where Will We Be? The future has arrived Assume: What can we expect?
It’s just unevenly distributed
Assume:
Newly invented technologies make it to market
No radical discontinuity
No nanotechnology for 30 years
What can we expect?
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4. The Science Bit Information and communication technologies will be:
Scalable
Portable
Interoperable
Backwards compatible
The network will be:
Pervasive
Always on
Fast enough
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5. What This Means In five years we could see: What sorts of service
Everything connected to everything else
All the time
Acting semi-autononomously
What sorts of service
Intelligent clothes
Baby monitoring
Location-based services
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6. Access 2005 Screen-based access to the internet Single data feed
Lean forward (monitor)
Lean back (TV)
Single data feed
Serve multiple devices
Widespread public access
Mobile services
Kiosks
Shared systems
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7. Core Technologies Fast and reliable networks Cheap processors
Unlimited address space
Sensible naming scheme
Cheap processors
Moore’s law maintained
Printable circuits
Good displays
Print quality resolution
Portable/rollable screens
Digital paper just out of the lab
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8. Core Technologies II Better programming The end of broadcast
New models for code writing
Fewer bugs; Self-maintaining systems
The end of broadcast
‘Publication’ of streamed video
Network servers or local storage (TiVO)
Other stuff
New news
Multiplayer soaps
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9. Just Like Magic Effective technologies are invisible
We do not ‘see’ gas/electricity/telephone
We must stop seeing ‘internet’ and ‘PC’
Good technologies shape our world
Language constructs reality [Wittgenstein]
Tools create mental and physical space
The economy shapes the polity
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10. New Assumptions We can do new things We can challenge old structures
What about Pulpit.Com?
We can challenge old structures
Pakistani adolescents and mobile phones
We can build a new world
Don’t know what is coming
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11. The World to Come
Easy access to information and communication technologies
World of business wholly dependent on ICT
Government increasingly so
Individual lives shaped by interaction with business/government
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12. The Future of E-commerce
Current issues revolve around:
Confidence
Security
Quality of experience
Fulfilment
The user perspective is what counts
As for all retail!
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13. Confidence Will come with time Orthogonal to security
Credit cards were distrusted once
Cash was distrusted once 
Orthogonal to security
Despite what people think
People will do what is convenient
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14. Security Transmission security is already there
Storage security is a problem
Secure protocols not widely adopted
People prefer simplicity to safety
Security issues will be solved
Vendors and card issuers want it
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15. Quality of Experience B2C B2B Online shopping sucks
More fun at supermarket than tesco.com
B2B
Driven by business need
Streamlined and efficient
Doesn’t have to be enjoyable
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16. Fulfilment Many B2C failures due to this B2B less likely to suffer
If you can’t deliver the customer will disappear
B2B less likely to suffer
Quantities and approaches are different
Getting e-retail to work is all about fulfilment
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17. E-Commerce Future It is already here Retailers and businesses want it
The question is how fast it grows
Retailers and businesses want it
Remember what happened to banking in the 1990’s
Consumers may just have to put up with it
It’s called ‘capitalism’
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18. Summary Technology can do what we want Decide what you want E-commerce
Capabilities outstrip our desires
Decide what you want
The tools can be there to build it
E-commerce
No longer a choice; it’s a given
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19. Thank You
12/31/2018