1. Uniwappen F. Pukelsheim Będlewo, 20 August 2018
Degressive Representation and the 2019 EP Elections

2. Degressive Representation European Parliament Elections
Titelfolie
Friedrich Pukelsheim
Będlewo, 20 August 2018
Degressive Representation
and the 2019
European Parliament Elections
Degressive Representation and the 2019 EP Elections

3. Werbung PR2ndEd
2017 xxvii+342 pp.

4. Foto EP Friedrich Pukelsheim Degressive Repräsentation und EP
Zeppelin Universität, 28. November 2017

5. The term composition of the EP means
the distribution of the (751) EP seats between the (28) Member States
i.e. in 2019 after Brexit: the distribution of 705 EP seats between 27 Member States
In the past: by negotiation
Vision for the future: by a formula

6. Workshop Fotos

7. Degressive representation
The concept of degressive representation is meant to be a manifestation of solidarity:
The more populous states agree to be underrepresented in order to allow the less populous states to be represented better.
EP resolution, 11 October 2007
EP terminology (misleading, I find):
degressive proportionality

8. Map: Catalonia

9. 2017 Catalan majority inversion 1
At the 2017 election of the Catalan parliament
the staunch-independence parties (JxC+ERC+CUP)
totaled 48.3 % of the effective votes
and 51.9 % of the parliamentary seats.

10. 2017 Catalan majority inversion 2
At the 2017 election of the Catalan parliament
the staunch-independence parties (JxC+ERC+CUP)
totaled 48.3 % of the effective votes
and 51.9 % of the parliamentary seats.
This majority inversion was caused solely by

11. 2017 Catalan majority inversion 3
At the 2017 election of the Catalan parliament
the staunch-independence parties (JxC+ERC+CUP)
totaled 48.3 % of the effective votes
and 51.9 % of the parliamentary seats.
This majority inversion was caused solely by
DEGRESSIVITY

12. Estatut D’Autonomia
The 1979 Estatut d’Autonomia (regional constitution) codifies a general rule, as well as a specific allocation:
The electoral districts will be the four provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona. The Catalan Parliament will consist of 135 MPs. The Barcelona district will elect one MP per every inhabitants, with a maximum of 85 MPs. The districts of Girona, Lleida and Tarragona will elect at least 6 MPs plus one per every inhabitants, and they will be allocated respectively 17, 15 and 18 MPs.

13. Province Seats Barcelona 85 Tarragona 18 Girona 17 Lleida 15 Sum 135
Catalan pop figures 1
Province
Seats
Barcelona 85
Tarragona 18
Girona 17
Lleida 15
Sum
135

14. Province Seats Pop1979 Barcelona 85 4 389 737 Tarragona 18 480 325
Catalan pop figures 2
Province
Seats
Pop1979
Barcelona 85
Tarragona 18
Girona 17
Lleida 15
Sum
135
Tarragona, Girona, Lleida: 6 base seats + 1 seat per of Pop1979
Source for Pop1979 (estimated from 1976): by courtesy of Xavier Mora, Barcelona

15. Province Seats Pop1979 RR1979 Barcelona 85 4 389 737 51 644 Tarragona
Catalan pop figures 3
Province
Seats
Pop1979
RR1979
Barcelona 85
51 644
Tarragona 18
26 685
Girona 17
25 988
Lleida 15
23 224
Sum
135 —
Tarragona, Girona, Lleida: 6 base seats + 1 seat per of Pop1979
RR = representation ratio = Pop / Seats, rounded to nearest integer

16. Province Seats Pop1979 RR1979 Pop2017 RR2017 Barcelona 85 4 389 737
Catalan pop figures 4
Province
Seats
Pop1979
RR1979
Pop2017
RR2017
Barcelona 85
51 644
65 100
Tarragona 18
26 685
44 014
Girona 17
25 988
43 690
Lleida 15
23 224
28 522
Sum
135 —
Tarragona, Girona, Lleida: 6 base seats + 1 seat per of Pop1979
RR = representation ratio = Pop / Seats, rounded to nearest integer
Source for Pop2017:

17. Separate district evaluations
2017 election:
Four separate district apportionments Cs
JxC
ERC
PSC
CeCP
CUP PP
Div.
Barcelona 85 24 17 18 13 7 3
36 000
Tarragona 5
96 031 4
52 017 2
23 653 1
17 687
20 188
20 160
Girona
79 634
88 582
35 197
16 482
21 708
11 646
19 000
Lleida 15
40 908
78 303 6
64 417
21 795
9 415
12 140
10 902
12 500
Sum 36 34 32 8 —
JxC + ERC + CUP:
votes = / = 48.3 % yield seats = 70 / 135 = 51.9 %

18. equally on the whole electorate
What if OPOV
What if
the OPOV principle
“One Person—One Vote”
would be imposed
equally on the whole electorate ?

19. The super-apportionmentCs
JxC
ERC
PSC
CeCP
CUP PP
Div.
Votes
Seats 35 30 19 10 6 5
31 000
JxC + ERC + CUP:
votes = / = 48.3 % yield seats = 66 / 135 = 48.9 %

20. The double-proportional sub-apportionment
Cs-35
JxC-30
ERC-30
PSC-19
CeCP-10
CUP-6
PP-5
Province Divisor
Barcelona-85
34 600
Tarragona-18
  6
  4
  4
  2
18 470
Girona-17
  3
  6
  4
  2
18 280
Lleida-15
  3
  5
  5
  1
11 330
Party Divisor
1.0893
1.2
1.136
0.9627
0.9 1 —
Sample calculation: /( x ) = → 23 seats
In each row: The seat numbers meet the given district magnitude.
In each column: The seat numbers exhaust the overall party seats.

21. Map: 2014 EU-28

22. Degressivity augmentation of 2014 composition
Member State
QMV2017
2014
RR2014
Augm.
2014DP
RR2014DP
Germany
82 064 489 96
854 838
France
66 661 621 74
*900 833 4 78
854 636
Italy
61 302 519 73
839 761
Spain
46 438 422 54
*859 971 2 56
829 258
Poland
37 967 209 51
744 455
Romania
19 759 968 32
617 499
The Netherlands
17 235 349 26
*662 898 28
615 548
Belgium
11 289 853 21
537 612
Greece
10 793 526
513 977
Czech Republic
10 445 783
497 418
Portugal
10 341 330
492 444
Sweden
9 998 000 20
*499 900 1
476 095
Hungary
9 830 485
468 118
Austria
8 711 500 18
*483 972 19
458 500
Bulgaria
7 153 784 17
420 811
Denmark
5 700 917 13
*438 532 14
407 208
Finland
5 465 408
†420 416
390 386
Slovakia
5 407 910
†415 993
386 279
Ireland
4 664 156 11
*424 014
358 781
Croatia
4 190 669
†380 970 12
349 222
Lithuania
2 888 558
262 596
Slovenia
2 064 188 8
258 024
Latvia
1 968 957
246 120
Estonia
1 315 944 6
219 324
Cyprus
848 319
141 387
Luxembourg
576 249
96 042
Malta
434 403
72 401
Sum
445 519 516
678
—     16
694

23. NLCC, FPS method, and 2019 composition
Member State
2014DP
NLCC
FPS
2019
RR2019
Increm.
Germany 96
●96
854 838
France 78 82 80 79
843 818 1
Italy 73 76 75
806 612 3
Spain 56 59 60
787 092
Poland 51
●51 52
730 139
Romania 32
●32 33
598 787
The Netherlands 28
●28 29
594 322
Belgium 21
●21
537 612
Greece
513 977
Czech Republic
497 418
Portugal
492 444
Sweden
476 095
Hungary
468 118
Austria 19
●19
458 500
Bulgaria 17
●17
420 811
Denmark 14
●14
407 208
Finland
390 386
Slovakia
386 279
Ireland 13
●13
358 781
Croatia 12
●12
349 222
Lithuania 11
●11
262 596
Slovenia 8 9
258 024
Latvia
246 120
Estonia 6 7
187 992
Cyprus
141 387
Luxembourg
96 042
Malta ●6
72 401
Sum
694
705
—    

24. Unionwide aggregation by Political Groups
2014 EP elections:
Aggregation of votes by Political Groups
Political Group
Votes
Quotient
OPOV
2014
Diff.
S&D
200.9
201
191
-10
EPP
221 20
ALDE
65.8 66 67 1
GUE/NGL
59.9 60 52 -8
ECR
59.7 70 10
GREENS/EFA
57.7 58 50
EFDD
54.1 54 48 -6 NI
51.1 51
Sum (Divisor)
( )
751
32-32

25. Does the European Union feature PPELs?
Unionwide aggregation of votes requires Political Parties at European Level (PPELs).
Question:
Does the European Union feature PPELs?

26. Visibility of European parties

27. Austria Estonia Latvia
Ballot structures
Austria Estonia Latvia
Lithuania Romania Czech Rep.

28. Latvia: plusses v. crossings out
PT, LV, gallery
Latvia: plusses v. crossings out
Ballot gallery for
2014 elections at

29. Check your ballot for PPELs at the elections to the 9th EP on
9th EP elections 2019
Your homework task:
Check your ballot for PPELs at the elections to the 9th EP on
Th.-Su Mai 2019

30. References
References:
R. Camps / X. Mora (2018):
Proporcionalitat i equalització territorial: El sistema biproporcional.
A. Duff (2018):
How to Govern Europe better: Reflections on Reform of the European Parliament, Commission and Council.
pub_details.php?cat_id=17&pub_id=8271
F. Pukelsheim (2017):
Proportional Representation – Apportionment Methods and Their Applications. With a Foreword by Andrew Duff MEP. Second edition.
Cham, Springer International Publishing.
F. Pukelsheim / G.R. Grimmett (2018):
Degressive representation of Member States in the European Parliament
Representation 54.
F. Pukelsheim (2018):
Compositional proportionality among European political parties at European Parliament elections.
Central European Political Studies Review 20.