1. Making Systems Work — How and for Whom?
                                                                                        
European exchange program for vocational-guidance counsellors
Making Systems Work — How and for Whom?
Who are the “last 20%”? Understanding and responding to the complex needs of the most vulnerable groups
Reykjavík, April 2008
Jón Torfi Jónasson and Kristjana Stella Blöndal
Social Science Research Institute
University of Iceland

2. The content of this presentation
The Icelandic system or setting
The studies on which this analysis is based
How is the group defined?
What are its characteristics?
What is the system they are in?
A reflection on the notion of discrepancy
What is their problem or the problem?
What is the aim of an intervention?
What might the intervention be?
We will go quickly through each of the following slides, spending about 4 minutes on each.
I will emphasise specially the items in bold and underlined!
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3. The Icelandic system or setting
The drop-out situation
We apparently still have a drop-out rate amounting to 20% (females) and 30% (males)
The economy is booming, with relatively little unemployment
The school system is characterised by 4 years (kindergarten 2-5), 10 years primary school (6-15), four years secondary (16-19), with a Bologna type tertiary (university) system.
The secondary system is essentially a comprehensive system. The students are quite free to choose the option (or track), i.e. academic or vocational, as they like, when they like.
Go through these points very quickly:
a) We have had a very longstanding problem of high dropout, with some change in the female population but no change in the male population.
b) This may be partly accounted for by the low unemployment rate and the economic boom, but it should be noted that this fluctuates, but not the dropout rate.
c) The school system is characterised by long formal schooling, and most of the secondary degrees credentials take four years to obtain and in this sense the system is rigid, but on the other hand it is very open, and thus it is very easy for people to return. There is a high rate of stop-outs in the system.
d) the relative strength of the vocational options has continued to diminish especially among the year olds.
Refer to the KB JTJ background paper.
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4. The studies on which this analysis is based
A number of studies
The cohort 1969 study ( )
The 1975 cohort study ( )
The school efficiency (or value added) study ( ), all data based on personally traceable information, primary school standardised competency tests, PISA, detailed progress report from secondary and tertiary education and sample questionnaires.
We will not describe here the studies on which this is based, except possibly in discussion. But it is important that for the first two studies we have the complete cohort in the picture; this will not be the same for the present study, but close!
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5. Clarification of terms: Three dimensions of the drop-out discussion
The school level:
Compulsory, upper-secondary, tertiary, …
The type of drop-out:
Not beginning, discontinuing, stop-out, …
The causal agents or reasons:
Another school, a job, disinterest, problems at school, personal problems, social problems, …
Pass these two slides very quickly, it has nevertheless become continuously more important to our analysis.
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6. Three important dimensions of the drop-out discussion
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7. Clarification of terms: the flow of students through the system
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8. How is the group defined? And why?
A major conclusion of previous studies:
When considering intervention, don’t think of it as one group; there are many fundamentally different groups.
Why use the reference to secondary school completion?
Is it important to society in general?
To the education system?
To the employment market?
Some Icelandic data (next slide)
Who are the last 20%?
Note the major conclusion from our previous studies!
However (and go very quickly through this):
We will define the last 20% with reference to secondary school completion.
But why are we interested in this?
And we could have other criteria:
Salaries between the ages of 20-30, correlates quite well with the school variable
Marks at the end of compulsory education (national testing) correlates quite well with the school variable
Personal satisfaction, does not correlate well with the other criteria
Criminal records
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9. Secondary school completion as a function of age (2003)
Go briefly through the Icelandic data, obtained from the on-going Labour survey
The Icelandic data has several noteworthy characteristics:
The gender difference
The age curve, showing the lowest limit reached at the age of about 30 for females and then – and only then going down to 20%; but only in the 40ies for males, then admittedly also reaching 20%, but only around 30% for males in their 30ies.
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10. What are the group’s characteristics?
Relationship between non-completion and performance in primary school
Reading difficulty (Nordic data)
Self-esteem (No dramatic pattern)
Attitude to education in general (to obtaining educational credits)
Attitude to the credentials they can aim for
2007: 88% females 79% males, would like to go to tertiary-university, same for “How likely do you think you will continue after secondary?”
Attitude to the types of courses on offer – practical vs. academic subjects
2007: Only 25% did not want more vocationally oriented courses at secondary level; several other indications of very positive interest in vocationally oriented study. But this is not reflected in their choices.
If the group is so defined what are its characteristics?
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11. Here we have taken together all qualifications at secondary level.
Te relationship between study competence and progress through the system.
Here we have taken together all qualifications at secondary level.
It is totally expected but somewhat disheartening to see how well one can predict what happens on the basis of this simple measure.
We take this to be one of the more important pieces of data we have accumulated, as predictable and uninteresting it is in many ways.
Noting substantial gender differences in study competence we note that it more or less disappears when we correct for the marks, except that in fact it differentiates between the sexes in an unexpected direction.
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12. Te relationship between study competence and progress through the system.
Only for the matriculation examination (studentereksamen) is the relationship very strong. And it is strong. Uncomfortably strong.
But for the rest of the progress categories it is not., except perhaps for those who never register.
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13. There appear to be three groups:
The cumulative plots relating study competence and status in secondary school at the age of 24.
There appear to be three groups:
Those who never register (above)
Those matriculate with University entrance requirement (UEE, lowest)
The three categories that seem to go together
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14. Cumulative distribution of reading scores according to PISA 2003
Level 4
Level 5
Level 3
Level 2
Level 1
Level 0
Don’t dwell on this, it is meant only to show two things:
How similar the reading ability curves are for the Nordic countries, the groups we are discussing are in this respect very similar for the 15 year age groups. ( I would like to construct similar curves for all the PISA countries).
How low the reading level is for the lowest 20% in the four Nordic countries, i.e. below around 450, or Reading level 1,5. Finland is better off.
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15. What is the system they are in?
The school, but how important is it?
Making school interesting??
Its support system
The family, the notion of discrepancy
The labour market
The credential system (see later)
But note also
The retrospective wisdom of dropping out
I will not dwell on this but simply raise the point that as far as our analysis is concerned, we still don’t know what is the primary casual system:
is it the school+ system,
the family+ system,
the employment market?
We may be somewhat undermining the school system in our reading of the data, but we feel that it is not the primary actor and the remedy some teachers are infatuated with, i.e. making their particular subject “interesting” may be misconceived as an antidote to dropping out.
The school's support system may however become a crucial balancing factor to the other systems, if our notion of discrepancy stands up to analysis.
The labour market is just booming, but a lot of foreign (often skilled) labour power is somewhat dampening the labour prospects of the young unskilled.
In this context the data we have on their own assessment of dropping out.
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16. A reflection on the notion of discrepancy?
In family-student attitudes or aspirations
In conflicting family-friends advise
In the student’s interests and choice of programme of study
In the student’s competence and aspirations
In the signals the student receives from the employment market
In the student’s competence and the content of an educational programme
This is an issue I want to dwell on. It relates to the old notion of cognitive dissonance, but is about dissonance that is not dissolved.
The point is this: there are a number of dimensions along which there seem to be a discrepancy between the students competence, aspirations, advice, peer group pressure or advice and her or his choice of study.
We had early evidence of this being an important predictor of drop-out in Iceland and want to pursue this further.
We will show some data on this, most of which is very crude, other which is very preliminary.
We want to elaborate on this issue.
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17. Is there difference in support? Yes, but perhaps not very dramatic?
This somewhat complicated matrix shows
That there is some relationship between parental support and school status,
But also that the patterns is not very clean as seen by the quite high numbers in the top row of all columns.
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18. The discrepancy for the vocationally inclined may be of special interest. The parental support or interest in UEE data. %
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19. The discrepancy between the parental and student aspirations and progress through the system. The 2002 data.
This is among the more important data.
The middle column shows the dropout rate of 25% where there was apparent confluence between the student and her parents.
But every single number in the other two columns is interesting and perhaps deserves discussion.
The 35 and the 13%
The 38 and the 19%
The 52%! and the 44%!
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20. The discrepancy for the vocationally inclined may be of special interest. The parental support or interest in UEE data.
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21. The academic - vocational dimension. The 2002 cohort data.
An attempt to show that when students express a positive attitude towards vocational courses that bodes problems! But then again!
In fact it is noteworthy that there is not much difference between the group that actually completes and those that do not.
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22. Predictors of drop-out from the discrepancy pool of questions
Predictors of drop-out from the discrepancy pool of questions. The 2007 data
An attempt to show that when students express a positive attitude towards vocational courses that bodes problems! But then again!
In fact it is noteworthy that there is not much difference between the group that actually completes and those that do not.
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23. What is their problem or the problem?
Having dropped out?
Not having the competence implicit in the programmes?
Having obtained a negative attitude towards schooling, which in turn negatively affects continuing education?
Not having the credentials?
Not having the social support afforded by the school?
Do not dwell on this, as this relates more to the intervention discourse.
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24. Was is defensible to drop out?
This the issue I want to dwell on. It relates to the old notion of cognitive dissonance, but is about dissonance that is not dissolved.
The point is this: there are a number of dimensions along which there seem to be a discrepancy between the students competence, aspirations, advice, peer group pressure or advice and her or his choice of study.
We had early evidence of this being an important predictor of drop-out in Iceland and want to pursue this further.
We will show some data on this, most of which is very crude, other which is very preliminary.
We want to elaborate on this issue.
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25. What is the aim of an intervention?
Correcting some or all of the above mentioned problems
Competence, which is typically quite meagre
Credential, status, competitive assets
Attitude towards school or study
Providing social support
Or just getting them to complete school?
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26. What might the intervention be?
What do these groups need?
In this order of importance?
Harmony? Vis-à-vis the notion of discrepancy.
Analysis of their aspirations rather than their needs or interests?
Support to sustain their choice
Programmes that are economically viable, but also have affinity with the student’s individual interests.
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27. Jón Torfi Jónasson and Kristjana Stella Blöndal
Thank you
Jón Torfi Jónasson and Kristjana Stella Blöndal
University of Iceland
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28. The Icelandic educational system
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