1. Public Opinion
Belief & Behaviors

2. Why do we measure the public opinion?
Beliefs & Behaviors
Public Opinion
Why do we measure the public opinion?

3. Public Opinion Polling
Beliefs & behaviors

4. Public Opinion What is it? Public Affairs Public Opinion
All the issues that concern the public at large
Public Opinion
The collective view of the public about the public affairs
The desires, wants, and thinking of the majority of people

5. Public Opinion Why? Why is it measured?
Someone wants the answer to a political question
The politicians want to know how the people (voters) feel about an issue so they can respond
The people want to know how their own opinions compare to others
It’s easy for the media to report

6. Public Opinion Public Opinion Impacted by Mass Media History
Makeup of the govt
Opinion Leaders
Someone who has a tremendous amount of influence over the opinions of others, typically media figures

7. Polling Process
Beliefs & behaviors

8. Public Opinion Polling Process Steps in the Polling Process
The universe is the group of people you are trying to learn about
Define the Universe
The universe is too big to be able to ask all of them the questions
Ex: Americans, likely voters, women, WSHS students

9. Can use a random sample of a quota sample
Public Opinion
Polling Process
Steps in the
Polling Process
The sample is the small number of people you will ask that will represent the universe
Create a Sample
You can ask everyone in the sample and assume their answers would match those of the universe
Can use a random sample of a quota sample

10. The larger the sample, the more accurate the poll will likely be
Public Opinion
Why?
Sample
The sample selected will have the greatest impact on the reliability of the poll
The larger the sample, the more accurate the poll will likely be
Random Sample
Quota Sample
All people in the universe have an equal chance of being chosen for the sample
Efforts are made to make the demographics of the sample match the demographics of the universe

11. Develop Interview Questions
Public Opinion
Polling Process
Steps in the
Polling Process
The best questions for measurement would be multiple choice – to get some uniformity in responses
Develop Interview Questions
The wording of the questions is critical. Biased questions will lead to skewed answers

12. Public Opinion Polling Process Steps in the Polling Process
Conduct poll using a method called the “straw poll”
Conduct Interviews
Ask the exact same questions to each person in the same, in the same order
Analyze the Data
Look at all the responses – What conclusions can be drawn?

13. Public Opinion Polling Process Steps in the Polling Process
Based on your data, what have you learned about the universe?
Present the findings
The point of doing the poll is to share the conclusions with others

14. Problems with Polling
Beliefs & behaviors

15. Public Opinion Problems
Possible Problems with the results of a Public Opinion Poll
The questions can be leading – worded in a biased manner to skew answers
People don’t always answer honestly
The samples can result in answers that don’t represent the universe
Polls have typically been done using “land lines” skewing answers toward older people

16. Public Opinion Sampling Error Sampling Error
The measure of the validity of the results of a poll
A larger random sample will result in a smaller sampling error
Generally a sampling error of +/- 3 is the sign of a good poll
Sampling error tells you how accurate the pollsters expect the data to be
Take the number reported and then add and subtract the sample error to see the actual range

17. Public Opinion Sampling Error This can mean… Sampling Error
Clinton 43% Trump 42%
Clinton wins a close one
Clinton 47.5% Trump 37.5%
Clinton wins a landslide
Clinton 38.5% Trump 46.5%
Trump wins
This poll isn’t actually very useful.
Sampling Error

18. Public Opinion Problems Exit Polls
Taken during the election day so media outlets can report the election as fast as possible
Agencies send pollsters to polling locations and they stop every few voters and ask them how they voted, why, and their demographics
Here there are more problems with people not responding, or not responding truthfully
Reporting exit polls at 7pm EST can impact voters on the West Coast whose polls are still open for 3 hours

19. Good polls include descriptions of their methodologies
Public Opinion
Exit Polls
2016 Exit Polls
Good polls include descriptions of their methodologies

20. Exit polls ask demographics so we can predict patterns in the future
Public Opinion
Exit Polls
2016 Exit Polls
Exit polls ask demographics so we can predict patterns in the future

21. Public Opinion
Exit Polls
2016 Exit Polls

22. Public Opinion
Exit Polls

23. Public Opinion
Exit Polls

24. Public Opinion
Exit Polls

25. Public Opinion
Exit Polls

26. Bigly Ideas
Beliefs & Behaviors

27. History Wrap Up Polling Process Straw Polls Exit Polls
Problems with Polls
Focus on these things: