1. Intervention à Pollutec Décembre 2014
Le rôle des Cleantechs dans le changement climatique Report for the R20 – Regions of Climate Action
Intervention à Pollutec
Décembre 2014

2. World GHG emissions Emissions 2020 baseline and pledges
Economic growth in emerging countries is expected to drive a GHG emissions increase of 18% by 2020, reach 59 Gt and strengthen the emissions gap, even if countries’ pledges are entirely met
World Annual GHG Emissions – 2010, 2020e
Greenhouse gases emissions estimates (CO2 equivalent billion metric tons)
Baseline
+18%
Pledges
Targets
Emissions gap
-15%
Baseline
Baseline
Current on-track pledgesCurrent on-track pledges
Full pledges implementationFull pledges implementation
 +2°C scenario
2010
2020e
Sources: OECD, UNEP, JRC/PBL EDGAR

3. World GHG emissions Emissions growth and country breakdown
GHG emissions have been growing by ~2% CAGR in the past decade, with China, the USA and the EU accounting for most of the emissions
World Annual GHG Emissions – 1990, 2005, 2010
Greenhouse gases emissions (CO2 equivalent billion metric tons) 50
Others
Japan 1
Brazil 2 2
Indonesia
Russian Federation
India
EU27
United States of America
China
1990
2005
2010
Sources: UNEP, JRC/PBL EDGAR

4. World GHG emissions Emissions gas and sector breakdown
CO2 accounted for 75% of global GHG emissions in 2010, mostly driven by the Energy, Industry and Transport sectors
World Annual GHG Emissions by gas and sector – 2010
Greenhouse gases emissions (% of CO2 equivalent billion metric tons)
Energy 2% 4% 1%
Industry 1% 2%
Transport 3% 1%
CO2
Forestry 5%
30%
Building
Peat decay 6%
Waste 0%
Fuel production and use 3%
CH4
Livestock
Forests, waste 7%
Rice, other
Agriculture (direct) 8%
16%
N2O
Forests, waste
Fuel combustion
13%
Indirect
F-gases
HFCs, PFCs, SF6
Total: 50.1 Gt
Sources: UNEP, JRC/PBL EDGAR

5. Industrial policy or climate policy ?
Support development
(feed-in tariff, norms, ...) to "buy" avoided emissions at a low cost
Global pilotes
or demonstrators
Global research initiative
aimed at reducing costs
No strong competitve advantage
Industrial policy attractiveness
Industrial pilotes
demonstrators
Research initiative aimed
at reducing costs
Potential or existing competitive advantage
Affordable today
Affordable in the near future
Not affordable in the near future in the current state of science
Affordability

6. Paradox one: grey is green ?
Coal-fired generating capacity of about 1,000 GW is installed worldwide.
Two-thirds of the plants over 20 years old have an average efficiency of 29% and emit 4 Gt of CO2/yr
If they are replaced with modern (45% efficiency), total GHG emissions will be reduced by 1.4 Gt = 17% of the 2020 gap

7. Paradox two: green is expensive ?
Cost of energy transition = mainly misallocation
All reports underestimate innovation
Affordable green innovation

8. Paradox three: crisis slows cleantechs
Crisis forces to prioritize using a more economic approach
Need to chase the right hare
....

9. … but not enough money on innovation
Energy patents
Govt share of energy R&D
Govt share of energy R&D

10. Climate transition needs innovation…
Conclusion
Climate transition needs innovation…
…but focus will be more and more AGIs…
…and there is NOT too much money !

11. Thank you
“Setting prices on the energy market is a first step for the energy transition”
“The main climate policy
error is to squeeze the innovations necessary to reduce the costs of energy transition”
“Industrial progress, growth, and tackling climate change are complementary”
“Big names in industry are participating in a study commissioned by the R20, an NGO launched by Arnold Schwarzenegger”
“With all the companies joining the Transition Through Innovation Global Alliance, our goal is to foster the development of affordable green innovations”
“On key topics as energy transition, dealing with important matters like nuclear or shale gas risks, we need objective and consensus studies on these risks and the technologies that can reduce them”
In the context of COP21 Paris climate in 2015, the R20 commissioned a report on the potential of “affordable green innovations”
“If these efforts result in R&D, it can be a smooth climate transition.
In short, global warming is far from being a view of the mind, but it is probably in our imagination that we will need to look for solutions to that challenge”

12. Transition Through Innovation Initative
Context :
Climate Conference planned in Paris end 2015
Intergovernmental stays at a state level and has a complex task to reach a joint statement
R20 interested to work to accelerate green innovations and projects
Objectives :
Mandate by the R20 Climate Action to prepare a report on “Climate Transition Through Innovation”
Goal is both to explain the role innovation can play & explain what can accelerate green innovation
Focus : “affordable green innovations” that can help reduce emissions at a reasonable cost
Help reduce carbon emissions
Cost per ton of co2 stays “reasonable” (no precise limit but could be $/ton)
Focus of today’s session : round table
Identification of major roadblocks
Policy recommendations “that make sense” (acceptable, cost effective & efficient)

13. Scope : general interest levers to accelerate Affordable Green Innovations (AGIs)
“Affordable Green Innovations (AGI)” contribute to reducing carbon emissions at an affordable cost:
Be technically mature as of today or in the short term : our time horizon is
Be economically viable, i.e. with a low cost per ton of CO2 avoided (<80$), or even negative (i.e. generating profits to final end-user)
Note : the cost per ton of CO2 avoided is defined as the additional cost of the innovation compared to the “usual” solution
To the final end-user and over the total lifecycle of the solution
“Per se”, i.e. independently from any subvention or subsidies
Offer a large potential for development : large enough for the innovation to contribute significantly to reducing carbon emissions considering “realistic and optimistic” diffusion assumptions
Technology neutrality & focus : goal is not to “pick winners” or decide which sectors are “clean” but to explain how every sector can find affordable ways to reduce emissions (and what policymakers should do to ensure they will and can do so)
“general interest levers” should make sense from a general interest oriented policy maker:
Cost effective : the taxpayer/user cost per ton of co2 avoided should be low
Make sense : the lever should make economic sense from a general interest point of view
Impactful : the lever should have an impact, as quantifiable as possible, on AGI development

14. Innovation production & adoption process
Business model +
How to ensure AGIs are financially viable / their benefit translate into revenues ?
Production of the innovation: from concept to large scale production
Production of innovation
Fundamental research
Applied research
Patent
Startup/Pilote
Large scale production +
How to experiment new technologies?
How to accelerate R&D ?
How to scale up?
Adoption of the innovation: client pull
Adoption of innovation
Research priorities national and regional
Client demonstrator / first project
Early adopters market
Global markets