1. Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland Jacek Kowalewski STATISTICAL OFFICE IN POZNAŃ

2. Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland possibilities of using existing administrative registers in short term statistics assessment of potential usefulness of administrative sources analysis of ways to decrease response burden for some companies improvement in data completeness and quality assessment of the possibilities of exploiting register data for purposes of calibration in the case of incomplete data Research program

3. DG1 survey

4. Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland business activity report the basic source of short-term information about economic activity of businesses covers only enterprises with over 9 employees timeliness – 5th day after the end of each month sales, taxes and subsidies, turnover, employees, working time 30 questions in the survey form converted into 460 variables current prices, constant prices DG1 survey

5. SURVEY SCOPE BY THEMES SURVEY SCOPE

6. 18 59478 443 18 594 (100%) 13 353 (about 17%) Sample 31 947 10% refusals 14% reminders 25% explanations Analysis of the processing of the DG-1 survey URZĄD STATYSTYCZNY W POZNANIU

7. sample aggregation sections, divisions, classes generalization URZĄD STATYSTYCZNY W POZNANIU Analysis of the processing of the DG-1 survey 18 594 (100%) 13 353 (about 17%) 18 59478 443

8. Digital reporting within the DG-1 survey national average from January 2008 to May 2010

9. The use of data from administrative registers

10. Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland recognition and description of the regulations comparison of the scope of data used in the registers with those used by public statistics comparison of concept definitions and classifications studies into methodological compatibility evaluation of the quality of administrative systems to determine their usefulness as data sources for business statistics specification of the scope of data to be used Review of the systems

12. Revenues DG1 survey vs administrative registers

13. Distribution of enterprises by revenue, DG-1, 2008 Number of enterprises Revenues

14. Relationship between the values of accumulated revenue - from DG-1, PIT or CIT register, all units together 2008 PIT, CIT register DG1 survey

15. Relationship between the values of accumulated revenue - from DG-1, PIT or CIT register, all units together 2008 PIT, CIT register DG1 survey

16. Usefulness of calibration

17. Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland Transforming administrative data sources into statistical data sets General population (MEETS) consisting of companies in the DG-1 survey which were successfully matched with information from the the KEP, CIT, PIT and ZUS databases Mean revenue was estimated using a calibration estimator with a known vector of the population total of auxiliary variables (the Horvitz-Thompson estimator was used as a benchmark). The study procedure

18. Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland Simulation: 5%, 10% and 15% samples were drawn from the MEETS dataset After obtaining a sample, information about revenue (dependent variable Y) for some enterprises was replaced with missing data Different approaches were used to generate missing data: random fashion (option 1), missing data were attributed to enterprises with the lowest (option 2) and highest (option 3) revenue 500 iterations performed for each option, the expected value of revenue, the expected value of the bias The study procedure - cntd

20. Conclusions

21. Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland Its hard to obtain administrative registers (system barrier) The direct use of administrative data in short-term statistics is limited by the overly long time of data processing and a long period of waiting for data to be transferred by their administrators. Administrative databases can be used as direct data sources for surveys, as a source of information to complete missing data, as a source of data for comparison with information collected in statistical surveys conducted by means of statistical reporting forms The databases are a rich source of potential auxiliary variables, which can improve the quality of estimations by reducing the negative effect of non-response in statistical reporting. Conclusions

22. Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland The use of all available information about selected variables helps to reduce the respondent burden and improve the efficiency of estimators Use of administrative data in producing business statistics may not completely solve all its problems (highly right-skewed distributions, very high differentiation and high concentration) but it can significantly contribute to minimizing their negative effects. Calibration approach can improve the quality of short-term estimation Calibration combined with the methodology of small area statistics, can increase the range of estimation methods available in business surveys Conclusions

23. To celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Polish Statistical Association http://www.stat.gov.pl/pts/kongres2012