1. The use of ensemble information for medium range forecasts at the Austrian Meteorological Service
Mag. Christian Csekits
Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG)
Tel.: /2302 oder /2311
Fax: /73
Internet:
Mag. Harald Seidl
Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG)
Tel.: /2394 oder /2311
Fax: /73
Internet:

2. * Plans for the near future
Outlook
EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017
* Motivation
* Objectives
* First results
* Plans for the near future

3. In previous years we used a lot of probabilistic info
Motivation
EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017
In previous years we used a lot of probabilistic info
Without knowing the weather scenarios behind

4. confidence/uncertainty of forecast
Objectives
EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017
Provide EPS weather scenarios from two different algorithms to the operational forecasters
confidence/uncertainty of forecast
Extend the forecasting period (7 to 10 days ahead)
support for decision makers, e.g. event organisers
Objective estimation of likelihood of severe weather phenomena
weather warning system
Likelihood
Impact 

5. Improvement of quality of forecasts and severe weather warnings
Objectives
EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017
Improvement of quality of forecasts and severe weather warnings
Development of new products for forecasters and costumers

6. Operational EPS Cluster System at ZAMG
First Results
EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017
Operational EPS Cluster System at ZAMG

7. uncertainty of the forecast
First Results
EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017
Hungarian Clustering System, ECMWF Clustering System and ECMWF deterministic run for the next 10 days
uncertainty of the forecast
display two different runs from one EPS system
jumpiness of the EPS
Number of members in each cluster is shown
Focus on scenarios with severe weather phenomena

8. Questionnaire to forecasters: July 2016 to February 2017
First Results
EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017
Questionnaire to forecasters: July 2016 to February 2017
* reliability of EPS systems (number of clusters, different
scenarios, dispersion, etc.)
ECMWF system better Equal Hungarian system better

9. Forecasts 10 days ahead: feasibility of spread in ECMWF system
First Results
EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017
Forecasts 5 days ahead: feasibility of spread in both systems equal and good
Forecasts 10 days ahead: feasibility of spread in ECMWF system
better than in Hungarian system
Reason: Clustering in Hungarian system done on day 5, ECMWF system has 4 different Clustering time steps

10. Plans for the near future
EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017
Display the standard deviation of each cluster
estimate the spread within each cluster
permanent objective verification of both Clustering systems
quality of the EPS systems
Clustering in Hungarian system on day 7
improve performance for 10-days forecast
extend investigations to forecasts for day 11 to day 14

11. Thank You very much for Your attention! Any questions???
Folie 11
EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017
Thank You very much for Your attention! Any questions???