1. A Tale of Two Oklahomas? Growing Disparities Between Oklahoma’s Urban and Rural Counties
Dave Shideler
Associate Professor & Extension Economist
Oklahoma State University

2. Outline The Last 10 Years Current State(s) of Oklahoma
Outlook Going Forward

3. Oil Prices and Rig Counts

4. The Last 10 Years

5. Employment Growth

6. Persistent Effects
Generated using annual total employment from Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages,

7. Change in Average Annual Private Wages
Generated using private annual wages from Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages,

8. Quarterly Change in Real GDP United States & Oklahoma, 2007-2018
Generated using quarterly real GDP by industry from Bureau of Economic Analysis,

9. Current State of Oklahoma

10. Value of Oil and Gas Production on Farmland, 2012
Generated by USDA Economic Research Service using data from NASS 2012 Census of Agriculture and Drillinginfo data;

11. State GDP by Industry, 2017
Generated using Real Gross Domestic Product by State data from US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis;

12. Employment Gains and Losses (Aug. ’17 – Aug. ‘18)
Job Gaining Industries
(Top 5 in descending order of jobs gained)
Job Losing Industries
(Top 5 in ascending order of jobs lost)
Admin & Waste Mgt
(6,300; 6.4%)
Non-durable Manufacturing
(-2,100;-5.2%)
Mining and Logging
(6,200; 12.6%)
Information Supersector
(-1,300; -6.4%)
Accommodation and Food Services
(5,800; 3.9%)
Professional, Scientific and Technical Serv.
(-900, -1.3%)
Wholesale Trade
(2,900; 5.0%)
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
(-100; -0.6%)
Other Services
(2,700; 4.0%)
Focusing on just the last year, we see that Health Care and Leisure/Hospitality still growing; manufacturing growing (reversing the trend?)
In terms of jobs lost over the last year, Information continues to lose jobs (national trend); decline in Transp – one of our comparative industries. Also, losing relatively high paying/stable jobs, while gaining lower wage jobs – As Larry mentioned in the national overview
Source: Compiled from OESC Economic Research and Analysis, “Oklahoma Employment Report,” Aug 2018

13. Generated using annual total employment from Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Local Area Unemployment Statistics,

14. Generated using annual total employment from Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Local Area Unemployment Statistics,

15. Generated using personal income by components data from Bureau of Economic Analysis, www.bea.gov

16. of
, 2017
Generated using population by age data from U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, year estimates

17. Oil Prices and Rig Counts
Generated using WTI oil prices from Energy Information Agency, and rig counts from Baker Hughes ,

18. What’s to Come?

19. Recession is Coming . . . Sometime
Potential Contributors:
Energy Prices
Trade
Federal Fiscal & Monetary Policies

20. Energy
3rd Quarter 2018 Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank Energy Survey;

22. Trade
Manufacturers’ surveys have indicated they are facing higher input prices, likely due to an anticipation of tariffs; per surveys, input prices have decreased slightly, though they are still up compared to year ago, and they anticipate higher prices over the next 6 months.
Oklahoma’s top 5 export locations are: Canada, EU, China, Mexico and Japan
Oklahoma’s top 5 import locations are: Canada, China, EU, Mexico and Japan
Oklahoma’s top 5 exported products: Metals & machinery, transportation equip., computers & technology, mining & chemicals and ag production/food processing

23. Fiscal & Monetary Policies
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
Cut income tax revenue to federal government – estimated $1.5 trillion through 2025
Increases deficit spending
Potential to crowd out business investment
Monetary Policy
Concerned about inflation from economic growth
FMOC committed to raising interest rates to mitigate inflation/slow growth
Policies will likely reinforce one another
Higher interest rates discourage business investment
Impact on those with fixed incomes

24. Questions?
Dave Shideler