1. Western Africa NWP: The model and initial results

2. Model Configuration
MM5-based Real-Time Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (RTFDDA) system
“Standard” model physics are currently used
6-hour cycles with hr forecasts in each cycle, depending on the grid.
Observations: Standard GTS/WMO surface and upper-air stations, plus MADIS (mostly AMDAR) and QuikScat sea-surface winds

3. Computing Resources NCAR Director GAU Reserve
7840 GAUs per month until May 1
CISL Lightning Linux-cluster
18 dedicated dual-cpu nodes: 1 model master, 16 MPP and 1 spare
Local post-processing and web service
RAL PC clusters
12 airlines, 8951 flights and obs a day. Mesaba, Atlantic Southeast, Comair, Horizon, Skywest, Mesa, “Pinnacle Airlines dba
Northwest Airlink, ExpressJet, Alaska Airlines, Southwest Airlines.

4. Domains
Three 2-way nested domains
DX=
40.5/13.5/4.5 km
Dimensions
D1: 261x261x36
D2: 184x295x36
D3: 208x301x36
Sizes (km2):
D1:10530x10530
D2: 3969x2592
D3: 1350x931 D1 D2 D3

5. Typical Distribution of Currently Available Observations
QuikScat
&
SFC
ROAB
Currently available obs:
Sfc: mostly at 00, 03 … 21Z
Raob: 00 and 12Z. Some at 06 and18Z
QuikScat: twice a day
AMDAR: vary diurnally.
More obs should be collected and assimilated into the system in the future.
AMDAR

6. Typical Distribution of Currently Available Observations

7. Land Use and Terrain Features
savanna
barren lands
EBFST
shrub, grass, crop
shrub
CROP
TERRAIN HEIGHT (KM)

8. Precip. Climate
(From UK/CRU)

9. Verification of RTFDDA Forecasts of Cloud fields
(Domain 1; valid at 00Z Dec. 5, 2006)
NRL DAY/NGT VIS/IR
RTFDDA 6h FCST: Cloud Top T

10. Verification of RTFDDA Forecasts of Cloud fields
(Domain 1; valid at 18Z Dec. 6, 2006)
NRL DAY/NGT VIS/IR
RTFDDA 18h FCST: Cloud Top T

11. Verification of RTFDDA Forecasts of Precipitation
(Domain 1; valid at 21Z Dec. 6, 2006)
NRL GEO-MV derived 3-h rain
RTFDDA 3h FCST: 1h rain

12. (Animated hourly, 07Z Dec. 4 – 18Z Dec. 5 2006)
Domain 2
(Animated hourly, 07Z Dec. 4 – 18Z Dec )
Surface T and Winds
Surface Qv and Winds

13. (Animated hourly, 07Z Dec. 4 – 18Z Dec. 5 2006)
Domain 3
(Animated hourly, 07Z Dec. 4 – 18Z Dec )
Surface T and Winds
Surface Qv and Winds

14. Next steps, and plans
Ghanian and Nigerian forecasters are providing subjective feedback on model strengths and weaknesses.
NCAR will perform objective verification of the forecasts, and improve the model as needed.
PC cluster will be set up in spring 07 at NCAR for longer-term operation of the modeling system.
Proposal will be submitted to the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) for longer-term NWP capacity building

15. continued
For the MCC proposal, NCAR will partner with ZedX corporation, that links agricultural models with meteorological models, and which has a presence in Ghana.
NCAR will partner with NASA, Columbia University, and CU to work with a CU PhD student who will apply WRF for climate-downscaling in West Africa.
NCAR will continue to work with Ben Lamptey during the second year of his post-doctoral appointment, to establish liaisons with stakeholders and to do what is necessary to maintain collaboration after his return to Ghana.