1. THE UPPER BASIN A FEW BASICS
February 10, 2016
Eric Kuhn

2. It’s time to talk about the big picture…Downstream obligations, basin statistics2

3. Hydrology comparison 2000-2014 12.3 MAF @ LF 1988-2014 13.2 MAF @ LF
Basin Study CC 13.7 LF
GR LF
PH LF
CC –climate change GR – gage period NF PH – paleo-hydrology
Data from Reclamation’s Naturalized Flows database

4. 2000-2014 WATER BUDGET SUPPLY – 13 MAF/YR (12.3 LF +.7 LB)
USE – 15+ MAF/YR (ignoring Gila)
DEFICIT – 2+ MAF/YR
12/1999 MEAD + POWELL > 50 MAF
12/2014 MEAD + POWELL ~ 20 MAF

5. LAKE POWELL RELEASES Controlled by the 2007 Interim Guidelines
Based on storage levels in both Powell AND Mead
What happens in the LB impacts Powell and what happens in the UB impacts Mead
As long as Powell has storage – NO compact problems for UB

6. BASIC TRADE-OFF CERTAINTY VS DEVELOPMENT
EXISTING USERS DESIRE COMPACT PROTECTION – MINIMAL THREAT OF A FUTURE CURTAILMENT
THE HIGHER THE LEVEL OF DEVELOP –MENT THE HIGHER THE RISK
PRE-COMPACT USES (PRIMARILY WS AGRICULTURE) NOT SUBJECT TO COMPACT CURTAILMENT

7. CONTINGENCY PLANNING Challenge from Interior: The Goal:
What if the current drought were to continue into the future?
Have a plan in place by 2015 (MOA or similar)
The Goal:
Identify actions that can “bend the curve”, i.e., reduce the risk of losing power production or being unable to deliver water
Possible Solutions:
Extended Operation of CRSP reservoirs
Demand Management
Cloud seeding / other augmentation

8. Demand Management Frequency
Assumptions; IGs operate Powell, Demands as defined by “current trends – Basin Study Extended ops before demand management

9. Vulnerability: Lee Ferry Deficit
TR-G Fig ref cite – G-5, page G-22, 2012 with Interim Guidelines extended
Basin Study Preliminary Draft Presentation - SUBJECT TO CHANGE

10. Extended Ops with UB Demand Management
It is not a short-term solution. Needs time to accumulate
Ideally would be separate from system water (e.g. Bank) because of uncertain future hydrology and IG behavior
But over time can be significant
Minimal benefit in near-term

12. THE RIVER TODAY EVERY DROP OF WATER IS USED.
THE UPPER BASIN IS CONSUMING ABOUT 4.5 MAF/YR.
THE LOWER BASIN IS CONSUMING ABOUT MAF/YR.
MEXICO IS CONSUMING ABOUT 1.5 MAF/YR.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE RELIABLE LONG TERM YIELD OF THE COLORADO RIVER SYSTEM.
THE YIELD (AT THE MOUTH) IS PROBABLY NO MORE THE 15 MAF!