1. Hans Wouters ESTAT, unit C.2
Task Force on GDP Flash estimates at t+30 days
GDP t+30 Eurostat results, future data work
4th Meeting of the TF, Den Haag January, 2015
Hans Wouters ESTAT, unit C.2
TF GDP T+30, Jan. '15

2. Content Background Work done since last TF meeting Future work
TF GDP T+30, Jan. '15

3. 1. Background
Purpose: assess feasibility of producing GDP flash estimates at t+30 days for EA and EU
Decision of NAWG meeting on May 2013
Start of work June 2013, finalisation by end-2015/early 2016
Participation: 17 MS, CH, ECB, CE (+ ESTAT staff)
Organised and chaired by ESTAT
2 meetings per year
Support of a contractor – Cambridge Econometrics
TF GDP T+30, Jan. '15

4. 2. Work done since last TF meeting
Decision to restrict transmission of t+30 country data to Eurostat
Two estimation rounds (2014Q2, 2014Q3)
Development questionnaire estimation techniques (WG estimation techniques)
Update document on quality criteria (WG quality criteria)
TF GDP T+30, Jan. '15

5. 3. Future work (1) Nr What When Who 1
Test calculations – ‘real time’ provision of national data every quarter from 2014Q1 onwards
End-Jan 2015, end-Apr 2015, etc.
Most TF Members 2
Production of EU and EA GDP test flash estimates, every quarter from 2014Q1 onwards
Begin-Feb 2015, begin-May 2015, etc.
ESTAT, CE 3
Test calculations – provision of national back data 2012Q1-2013Q4
February 2015
Most TF members 4
Final document on estimation techniques
April 2015
WG/IT
TF GDP T+30, Jan. '15

6. 3. Future work (2) Nr What When Who 5
Provisional document on quality criteria
April 2015
WG/UK 6
Provisional document communication strategy
June 2015
WG/ESTAT 7
Test estimates for EA/EU, back data 2012Q1 – 2013Q4
Spring 2015 – Summer 2015
ESTAT, CE? 8
Update of growth rate triangles for revision analyses – ,
TF Members,
ESTAT
TF GDP T+30, Jan. '15

7. 3. Future work (3) Nr What When Who 9
Revision analysis on the test estimates – ,
Spring 2015 – Autumn 2015
ESTAT, WG quality 10
Calculation of data indicators and other analyses for Quality criteria (e.g unbiasness of t+30?)
Summer 2015 – Autumn 2015 11
Final document on quality criteria
Nov 2015
WG/UK 12
Final document on communication strategy
WG/ESTAT 13
Note regarding advice TF to DMES regarding introduction GDP t+30 estimations in 2016
ESTAT
TF GDP T+30, Jan. '15

8. Hans Wouters ESTAT, unit C.2
Task Force on GDP Flash estimates at t+30 days
GDP t+30 Eurostat results, future data work
4th Meeting of the TF, Den Haag January, 2015
Hans Wouters ESTAT, unit C.2
TF GDP T+30, Jan. '15