1. Factors of Ethnic Conflict

2. It’s a Sliding Scale
Each factor, depending on degree, can by itself lead to conflict - - but doesn’t have to. The stronger the degree, the more likely the conflict.
Less Likely More Likely
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3. And It’s Cumulative
Where there are fewer factors, there is less likely to be conflict.
Where there are more factors, there is more likely to be conflict.

4. 1. Perception of Degree of Difference
Less Likely: Where people do not perceive themselves as being very different ethnically.
More Likely: Where people perceive themselves as being very different.
How “outsiders” or “others” see them is irrelevant - - what matters is how different the parties involved see themselves.

5. Language and Religion
Difference in language and religion, the two most powerful factors of ethnic identity, are the most potential bases for perception of difference.
Less Likely: Where language and/or religion are closely related.
More Likely:Where language and/or religion are very different from each other.

6. Other Ethnic Characteristics
Less Likely: Two or more groups are similar in other ethnic traits, such as clothing, food, manners, values, etc.
More Likely: Two groups are widely different in cultural traits.

7. Physical Differences Less Likely: Where people look like each other.
More Likely: Where people look very different from each other.

8. 2. Domination by one ethnic segment over others
Less Likely: Two or more groups have about the same population, status, resources, political, economic and social rights.
More Likely: Ethnic minority is over-powered by a majority ethnic group with more power, status and rights - - OR
An ethnic minority dominates an ethnic majority, taking all power and status to themselves.

9. 3. Religious and Linguistic Freedom
Less Likely: Where groups are free to practice their religion or speak their language.
More Likely: Where languages and religious practices are forbidden.

10. 4. Ability to Socialize and Inter-Marry
Less Likely: Where there are few or no legal, cultural or religious barriers to marriage between groups.
More Likely: Where it is not possible to marry outside the group.

11. 5. Physical Separation
Less Likely: Ethnic groups are free to assimilate or associate as they wish; few or no enforced borders between groups.
More Likely: Groups are physically separated from the larger society and borders are strictly enforced by a dominant society.

12. 6. Enforcement of Ethnic Boundaries
Less Likely: Ethnic identity is not an impediment to upward mobility in that society.
More Likely: Where ethnic identity limits one’s ability to move economically, socially or politically.

13. 7. Allocation of Rewards
Less Likely: Participation in the life of the whole group leads to economic, political or social rewards and recognition.
More Likely: It is not possible to earn rewards or access to resources.

14. 8. Power of symbols
Less Likely: Where groups are allowed to have their cultural symbols, such as flags, icons, statues, clothing, songs, etc.
More Likely: Where ethnic groups do not feel that the symbols of the larger group speak for them, or they are not allowed to participate in the symbolic life of the group, or to have their own symbols.

15. 9. Role of legitimacy
Less Likely: Where ethnic claims are taken seriously and regarded respectfully.
More Likely: Where ethnic claims are denied legitimacy and are disregarded or treated disrespectfully.

16. 10. Availability of land and resources
Less Likely: There is an abundance of land and resources, allowing groups to spread out, or allocating economic tasks to different groups.
More Likely: There is a scarcity of resources.

17. 11. Charismatic Leadership
Less Likely: Ethnic groups have no speaker or live in relative acceptance of the status quo.
More Likely: Charismatic speaker either represents the claims of the minority, or convinces an ethnic segment that they are oppressed.

18. 12. Outside Interference
Clumsy diplomatic intervention or actions by other countries not aware of the potential consequences of their actions or policies.
Support of money or armaments from outside.

19. 13. Events “Back Home”
A wide range of scenarios where an event in another place can touch off conflict in a community:
1. Revolution or rise of fundamentalism
2. Collapse of a nation leaves people stranded and without an outlet

20. 14. Armed Paramilitary
Less Likely: An ethnic group has no access to means of fighting.
More Likely: An ethnic group develops an “underground” fighting force of some sort.

21. 15. Passage of Time
The longer a situation of difference - - of lack of assimilation between two groups, of oppression and domination, of lack of redress of claims - - continues, the more likely conflict will break out.

22. When Ethnic Conflict Becomes Genocidal
When an ethnic group attempts revenge in the name of historical justice - - I.e., to right the wrongs of history.
When the radicalization of a group includes language that maintains that other groups are less than human and need to be eradicated.

23. Avoiding Genocide
When two groups realize that it is to their mutual benefit not to attempt to eradicate the other, they will self-limit their wars.

24. Summary
Ethnic identity is shaped by a place, and ethnic struggle comes when two or more ethnic groups come to occupy the same place.
Where people do not recognize themselves in the public institutions of the society, they become alienated from the society which they do not see as their own.

25. Bottom Line
Where people feel that it is not possible for them to be human unless they exist in their cultural context in the same physical place as another group that claims rights to the same place, there will be ethnic conflict.
People are not fighting over religion, they are fighting over land, resources, & human-hood.