1. Geo Politics: Global Transformations
Harinda Vidanage PhD

2. Living in historic shifts
Our forecast for 2012 is framed by the idea that we are in the midst of what we might call a generational shift in the way the world works. The processes are still under way, and we will therefore have to consider the future of Europe, China and the Middle East in some detail before drawing a conclusion. (Stratfor 2011)

3. 2012 may not be the conclusion of this transformative process
2012 may not be the conclusion of this transformative process. Neither was 1991 the conclusion. However, just as was the year in which it became clear that the old world of the Cold War no longer functioned, 2012 is the year in which it will become clear that the Post-Cold War world has come to an end, being replaced by changed players and changed dynamics. (Stratfor 2011)

4. 2012 - 2017 2012: Stuxnet (year zero), Abe
2013: Xi Jinping, Snowden, OBOR
2014: Modi,Crimea, ISIL
2015:Brexit,Russia in Syria
2016/17: Trump, May , Macron, Merkel, Qatar/Saudi tensions, Lebanon, North Korea

5. Age of Entropy
International politics is transforming from a system anchored in predictable, and relatively constant, principles to a system that is, if not inherently unknowable, far more erratic, unsettled, and devoid of behavioral regularities
In terms of geopolitics, we have moved from an age of order to an age of entropy.
(Schweller 2014)

6. Making sense of 21st Century
Asian Century
Pacific Century/ American Century
No one’s World

7. Global Currents Nationalist outlook Vs. Global Governance
Increasing militarization
Regional power struggles
Techo power consolidations: ‘World’s valuable resource is no longer oil, but Data’

8. China

9. China’s regional outlook
Amity, sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness : Xi Doctrine 2013
Good neighborhood policy
Harmonious rise
Shared destiny
Common Security

10. Colliding foreign policies
America’s Pivot to Asia/Rebalancing (2017? )
China’s March West (OBOR)
India’s Look East

12. MENA region Saudi – Iran : Power Struggle Role of Turkey
United States , Russia and China

15. Impact on Sri Lanka: Port Calls
S.N
COUNTRY
2016
2017 1
AUSTRALIA 01 03 4
CANADA 5
CHINA 04 06 6
FRANCE 02 7
GERMANY - 8
INDIA 11 14 9
INDONESIA
ITALY 12
JAPAN 13
KOREA
MALAYSIA 15
MALDIVES 16
MAURITIUS 17
NIGERIA 18
OMAN 19
PAKISTAN 08 20
RUSSIA 22
SOUTH AFRICA 23
THAILAND 25
USA 05 26 UK
TOTAL 57 54

16. Sri Lanka Increasing Pressure from Geo Political rivalries
Economic relations shaped by Geo Economic agendas
Internal Political security
Changing demographics from inward migration
Implications on: Maritime security, Energy Security to Cyber vulnerabilities