1. Commodities Outlook 2018 Crude Oil

2. Crude Prices Last Year
Source : Investing.com

3. Bullish Factors
OPEC and non OPEC producers have adhered to quotas surprisingly well for a surprisingly long period of time
Crude and product inventories have reduced significantly
Geo Political Uncertainty always remains a factor that push prices up
As also natural disasters
The nature of financial funds themselves are geared to pushing the market up

4. Crude Stocks in the US
Source : EIA Supply Estimates

5. Global Gasoline Stocks
Source : Reuters / EIA Supply Estimates

6. US Gasoline Stocks
Source : EIA Supply Estimates

7. ARA Gasoline Stocks
Source : Reuters

8. Singapore Gasoline Stocks
Source : Reuters

9. Global Distillate Stocks
Source : Reuters / EIA Supply Estimates

10. US Distillate Stocks
Source : EIA Supply Estimates

11. ARA Gasoil Stocks
Source : Reuters

12. Singapore Distillate Stocks
Source : Reuters

13. Bearish Factors
2/3rds of the entire production cut has been offset by new supply
Funds are overwhelmingly long
Products in the US seem to be adequate
Chinese demand is going to be growing only at 4.6%
China may end up with a fuel product surplus of 45 million tons
Dec-16 Jan-18 Difference Libya Nigeria USA Venezuela Total 1263

14. Concluding Thoughts
No buyer of oil has ever been stuck for a cargo of oil
The oil market is probably the only market in the world where we cheer a bunch of hoarders!

15. Thank you
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