1. Filip JORDÁN, Karel KABELE, Jan HENSEN
poster P3-16 1
TECHNIQUE OF UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS FOR SUSTAINABLE BUILDING ENERGY
SYSTEMS PERFORMANCE CALCULATIONS
Petr KOTEK
Filip JORDÁN, Karel KABELE, Jan HENSEN
Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Czech Republic
Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, Building Physics & Systems, Netherlands 9
ID609

2. Introduction
The crucial in the optimization methods of energy consumption are uncertainty and sensitivity analyses (UA & SA) and their results.
The MonteCarlo (MCA) method was used to find out the most influential parameters of a thermal energy simulation model and simple analytical model of HVAC system 2
repeated simulations 9
ID609

3. (crude MonteCarlo method)
Procedure – case study
ASHREA BESTEST case600 was chosen
x48 3
sampling
random sampling
(crude MonteCarlo method)
software procedure
sample matrix
S = 6 simulations 9
ID609

4. x48 Procedure – case study ASHREA BESTEST case600 was chosen3
sampling
LatinHypercube sampling
reduce number of simulations
software procedure
sample matrix
S = 6 simulations 9
ID609

5. UA & SA SimLab external model MS Excel IES<VE>
Softwares for UA & SA - procedure
xn inputs with uncertainty
UA & SA
yk outputs
SimLab
pre-processor
model execution
post-processor
sampling 4
sample matrix.sam
Inputs for simulations
software procedure
external model
outputs.out
MS Excel
outputs from simulations
200 automatic simulations
heat losses
heat gains
IES<VE> 9
ID609

6. heating and cooling demand during the whole year
THERMAL SIMULATION
heating and cooling demand during the whole year
heat losses
results for main values of inputs
heat gains
gains [kw] losses
the coldest day
time 5 9
ID609

7. heating and cooling demand during the whole year with uncertainty
THERMAL SIMULATION
heating and cooling demand during the whole year with uncertainty
heat losses
results with uncertainty bound
from 200 simulations
heat gains SA
from SimLab 5 9
ID609

8. HVAC SYSTEMS AND CALCULATIONS
heat losses
heat gains
FCU VAV 6 9
ID609

9. HVAC SYSTEMS AND CALCULATIONS
heat losses
heat gains
FCU VAV
LOADS with uncertainty bound
LOADS with uncertainty bound
AHU
AHU 7
FCU
VAV-box 9
ID609

10. These parameters can be optimized with GenOpt (TrnOpt), BeOpt,…
RESULTS
by using VAV system we save energy, but according to the uncertainty in inputs it can be less effective than FCU UA SA
with combination of energy simulation and MonteCarlo simulations we can find out the most sensitive parameters for constructions and for HVAC components and settings.
These parameters can be optimized with GenOpt (TrnOpt), BeOpt,… 8 9
ID609

11. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
International end of presentation
DANK U WEL VOOR UW AANDACHT
DĚKUJI ZA POZORNOST
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION 9
ID609