1. Early estimates for ESSPROS main indicators
Paolo Passerini ESTAT-F5
17 May 2018
EUROSTAT Workshop Social protection/National accounts

2. Content of the presentation
Why a project on "Early estimates"?
Which data and when?
How to compile the "Early estimates"?
Some reflections
How to facilitate the project?
Way forward
For discussion
17 May 2018
Workshop Social Protection/National Accounts

3. Workshop Social Protection/National Accounts
Why "Early estimates"?
Timeliness of ESSPROS data: major and recurrent concerns of our users (DG EMPL, ISG, + ECOFIN Council) Target for availability of ESSPROS data for year t (reference year): September t+2 In general, these are "final" data For policy users and for the European Semester (starting in November), need to have t data in t+1 for annual monitoring purposes
17 May 2018
Workshop Social Protection/National Accounts

4. Which data and when? Users requirements
Total benefits per function (8 figures)
Availability for users: end of October t+1
Data compiled by countries and sent to Eurostat end of September t+1
Data "consistent" with National Accounts
17 May 2018
Workshop Social Protection/National Accounts

5. Workshop Social Protection/National Accounts
Background
The project was presented to the ESSPROS WG in April 2017 and to the DSS in 2016 and in October 2017
The project was also presented to the NA WG meeting of May 2017
Discussed at the ESSPROS Task force meeeting in November 2017 in particular for Workshop with National accounts WG
17 May 2018
Workshop Social Protection/National Accounts

6. How to compile the "Early estimates"?
There is no requirement on data compilation process, provided the characteristics required by users are satisfied
Early extraction of less detailed data from ESSPROS system is a clear option, but may not be feasible ot too costly. Consistency with national accounts should be checked
Link the production process of social protection data in t+1 to the production process of national accounts provisional data (this would also ensure consistency)
17 May 2018
Workshop Social Protection/National Accounts

7. How to compile the "Early estimates"?
In practice, the various elements may be combined differently by countries (no unique solution)
Main aspects are:
defining a production process (linked to NA?)
developing conceptual adjustments
developing estimates for missing information
15-16 May 2018
Workshop Social Protection/National Accounts

8. Compiling"Early estimates" of SP from National Accounts?
In the practice of some countries, social protection accounts are released in T+1 based on internal processing of certain national accounts transactions (social benefits as defined in NA) The target concept remains ESSPROS social protection benefits, so that a number of adjustments is needed Mostly: exclude social benefits out of ESSPROS scope. (Plus rerouted social contributions treatment, administration costs)
15-16 May 2018
Workshop Social Protection/National Accounts

9. Compiling"Early estimates" of SP from National Accounts?
Target indicators: Total social protection benefits broken down by 8 functions: 1) sickness/health 2) disability 3) old age 4) survivors 5) unemployment 6) family/children 7) housing 8) social exclusion not included elsewhere No split cash/in kind benefits required
15-16 May 2018
Workshop Social Protection/National Accounts

10. Compiling"Early estimates" of SP from National Accounts?
2 National accounts items are relevant for this exercise:
D62 – Social benefits other than social transfers in kind (payable by any sector)
D63 – Social transfers in kind (payable by government and non-profit institutions only)
15-16 May 2018
Workshop Social Protection/National Accounts

11. Compiling"Early estimates" of SP from National Accounts?
The main objective consists in breaking down these 2 items in order to:
Deduct the amounts that are not included in the 8 ESSPROS function (out of scope)
Allocate the remaining part to the 8 functions
15-16 May 2018
Workshop Social Protection/National Accounts

12. How to compile the "Early estimates" from National Accounts?
Framework: NA data transmission to Eurostat (ESA 2010 Transmission Programme)
Government Finance Statistics – Table 2 includes Government expenditure for social benefits (D62, D63) provided to Eurostat by March T+1
No breakdown by function
Since 2015 extended Table 2 (not compulsory) includes D62 for 3 COFOG functions: old age, survivors, unemployment (major part of D62)
15-16 May 2018
Workshop Social Protection/National Accounts

13. How to compile the "Early estimates" from National Accounts?
Framework: NA data transmission to Eurostat (ESA 2010 Transmission Programme)
Sector accounts – Table 8 (including other sectors than Government) provided to Eurostat by September t+ 1
Includes D62, D63 by sector, no breakdown by function
15-16 May 2018
Workshop Social Protection/National Accounts

14. How to compile the "Early estimates" from National Accounts?
Framework: NA data transmission to Eurostat (ESA 2010 Transmission Programme)
Government expenditure (COFOG) – Table 11 provided to Eurostat by December t+1
D62, D63 of general government broken down by by function
Data for the subsector Social security funds are also provided by most of countries
15-16 May 2018
Workshop Social Protection/National Accounts

15. How to compile the "Early estimates"?
Conceptual adjustments
Main conceptual adjustments needed:
Scope of benefits, i.e.: excluding NA benefits in education, sport and culture,…
Re-routed social contributions may be included in NA benefits and not in ESSPROS
3) ESSPROS administration costs (non-market) included in social transfers in kind in NA
Workshop Social Protection/National Accounts

16. How to compile the "Early estimates"?
Estimates (Missing data)
- Estimates for splitting benefits by function (sectors other than GG): NPISH, Financial corporations (including pension funds, …), Non-financial corporations, Households (as employers)
Administration costs by function
Countries experience …..
Workshop Social Protection/National Accounts

17. How to compile the "Early estimates"?
Early estimates of social protection benefits are subject to revisions once the underlying data are revised and ultimately become final in the ESSPROS data transmission context Status should be communicated clearly to users
Workshop Social Protection/National Accounts

18. How to facilitate the project?
Support from outside WG SP
DSS informed in March 2017 (support) (24/31 ESSPROS colleagues are in NSIs)
NA: presentation of the project (links with NA, including early estimates) to NAWG on May 2017
ISG: presentation of the project to ISG on 18 May
Other???
15-16 May 2018
Working Group Social Protection

19. How to facilitate the project?
Technical support
Experience of compiling data in t+1 was reported by the 2 countries (IT & FR) to the TF in November 2016: detailed documents exist and will be circulated (again)
Dedicated Workshop in May 2018
Discussion within TF and WG
15-16 May 2018
Working Group Social Protection

20. How to facilitate the project?
Financial support
In 2017, call for proposals launched in May with three sub-actions:
ESSPROS data timeliness (same as 2016)
Links with NA (data comparison, conceptual differences)
Early estimates
Possibility for multi-beneficiaries grants (ESSPROS and NA, one being coordinator)
Support from DSS (for 24/31, ESSPROS is in NSI)
15-16 May 2018
Working Group Social Protection

21. Working Group Social Protection
Way forward
Gradual transmission of early estimates from September 2018
All EU countries in September 2020
Dissemination as experimental data
Communication issues
Early estimates included in revised ESSPROS legal framework?
15-16 May 2018
Working Group Social Protection

22. Lessons learnt and way forward
Pre-requisite: identification of differences between NA & ESSPROS
- using document WGSP (expenditure) for conceptual differences (including correspondance table between transactions)
- Comparing data (including analysis of data sources)
best estimates using consistent data available that TIME, data will be revised!
26-27 March 2015
Working Group Social Protection

23. Working Group Social Protection
For the early estimates:
Examine with NA the availability (and their timing) at national level of relevant data sources (sector accounts, COFOG SP)
- Define a process to articulate the compilation of early estimates with the national timetable. Strong coordination needed
26-27 March 2015
Working Group Social Protection

24. Working Group Social Protection
Early estimates will be the best estimates consistent with data available at the time they are published, they will be revised.
26-27 March 2015
Working Group Social Protection