1. "The Price, Reliability, and Environmental Impacts of Electricity Related Fuel Diversity Trends in New England"
Alan Nogee
Energy Program Director
Union of Concerned Scientists
Massachusetts Restructuring Roundtable
Boston, MA
December 1, 2000

2. Oil and gas prices are volatile
Oil prices are up 150% since first quarter 99
Gas prices up more than 200%
Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, 10/2000

3. Renewables can increase diversity and restrain gas price increases
RPS reduces demand for natural gas
Gas price lower by $0.23/mmBTU (7.5%) in 2010
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2000
RPS: 7.5% renewables by 2010, no cap or sunset case

4. Gas savings offset electricity costs of RPS8
Change in Consumer Electricity Costs 6 4
Billion 98$
Net Cost 2
When you put the two together a national RPS becomes even more affordable to consumers.
EIA results show that gas savings to consumers offsets a large portion of the higher electricity costs and even produces a net savings after 2015.
Change in electricity costs = 3.2% higher in 2010 and 1.4% in Incremental cost falls over time as the incremental cost of renewables falls.
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020 -2
Change in Consumer Gas Costs
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2000; RPS: 7.5%, no cap or sunset case -4

5. N.E. renewables can reduce electricity prices
Renewables = 50% of new generation
Assumes gas increases to 25% of generation by 2010
Gas projected by some to equal 50-67% of generation by 2003
Business as usual
Increased renewables
Source: Assessing New England's Energy Future, New England Governors' Conference, December 11, 1996, p. V-6

6. RPS “options”? "Regarding the RPS a retailer has three options.
It can have the RPS relegislated and eliminated.
It can try in good faith to sell renewable energy but the supply may not exist.
Or it can not try to sell it and say it did.”
A T&D company moving toward integrated energy provision (Generation, T&D and retail)
Source: Bain & Co. for Mass. Technology Collaborative

7. Renewables potentially eligible for MA or CT RPS
Renewables under development can meet standards through 2008
Source: Sustainable Energy Advantage survey for UCS

8. Renewable energy standards and funds
Standards only = 4 states
Standards+funds = 8 states
Funds only = 6 states
Restructured, no policy = 8 states

9. Renewables expected from state standards and funds
18,000
8,550 MW new renewables
7,800 MW existing renewables
Other*
16,000
CO2 reduction equivalent to
* 1.2 billion more trees
* 3.9 million less cars
14,000
California
12,000
Nevada
10,000
Megawatts
Arizona
New Mexico
8,000
Texas
Iowa
Minnesota
Wisconsin
New Jersey
Connecticut
Massachusetts
Maine
CO2 reduction =
800 million more trees
2.7 million less cars
6,000
4,000
2,000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
*Includes Illinois, Montana, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.

10. Coal generation to continue to grow Electricity generation by fuel (Billions of kWh)
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2001, Early Release

11. Carbon emission reductions
Sources: States - UCS; Green market, Hi - EPA; Jeffords - ACEEE