1. How can gas contribute to the achievement of EU climate targets?
Martin Lambert
Senior Research Fellow
Energy post brussels debate 27th Sept 2018
Natural Gas Programme

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Natural gas programme
SEP 2018

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4. How can gas contribute to the achievement of EU
climate targets? Key Messages
A few years ago simple answer: Gas is the lowest carbon fossil fuel, and gas-fired power generation is natural complement to renewables.
Now, post COP-21 much more complicated answer:
While natural gas is somewhat better than coal, it is still a fossil fuel, and methane leakage damages the perception of gas;
Even if all coal switched to gas, the carbon emissions from gas will hinder reaching the 2050 target of 80% GHG reduction from 1990 levels
Need to decarbonise the energy system, including gas, but how?
Could be all-electric, but that looks more expensive than continuing to use gas
Lower carbon gas is possible: currently several options on the table:
Biomethane from anaerobic digestion;
Synthetic natural gas from gasification of waste;
Power-to-gas (power to hydrogen or power to methane)
Hydrogen production from methane: SMR with CCS, or methane cracking.
Lots of options – how to chart a path forward?
Gas and decarbonisation
Sep 2018

5. Coal to Gas switching can help, but is not enough
UK carbon price floor has encouraged coal to gas switching in power generation, and increasing share of wind and solar.
Germany share of renewables in power generation capacity around 50%, but significant lignite burning continues.
Source: UK Committee on climate change
Power sector has made good progress. Other sectors have barely started on pathway to decarbonisation
Gas and decarbonisation
Sep 2018

6. Methane emissions need to be addressed
Atmospheric concentrations of methane are rising steeply.
The natural gas industry is only a (relatively small) part of the problem.
Estimate 1.5 to 2% leakage across supply chain
Need for much more clarity and transparency of reporting
Methane emissions from agriculture and waste can present an opportunity for renewable gases
Gas and decarbonisation
Sep 2018

7. Current Policies are insufficient to meet 2050 targets
Despite UK making good progress exceeding initial carbon budgets – need to address policy gap to meet 4th and 5th carbon budgets.
Similarly at EU level, further action required across all sectors to meet 2050 targets.
Gas and decarbonisation
Sep 2018

8. Decarbonisation of heat sector is a key challenge
In northern Europe, seasonal variation in heat demand much larger than variation in electricity.
Various studies conclude that full electrification, while possible, is more expensive than mix of electrification and renewable gas
Gas and decarbonisation
Sep 2018

9. Gas can decarbonise – how, how much, how fast?
Bio-SNG via Gasification
Biogas / Biomethane
Power to Gas
Methane reforming with CCUS
Gas and decarbonisation
Sep 2018

10. At best around 100 Bcm for total EU from biomethane by 2050
Biomethane potential is limited
Source: Entsog/TNYDP, Annex II, Methodology, March 2018, Figure 20, p.41.
At best around 100 Bcm for total EU from biomethane by 2050
Gas and decarbonisation
Sep 2018

11. … but massive scale up of these technologies is required
100% Renewable Gas in France by 2050?
… but massive scale up of these technologies is required
Gas and decarbonisation
Sep 2018

12. (Some) Key Questions to be addressed
Is the future of gas as hydrogen, renewable methane, or both?
What are existing network constraints? Is one clearly cheaper / better?
How will EU and member states define policy and fiscal incentives?
Predictable carbon pricing? Incentives for particular technologies?
How will regulatory frameworks evolve?
How will investors be confident to make required investments?
For how long will new natural gas infrastructure be justifiable?
Who will manage scale-up risks and uncertainties?
How fast will costs reduce as scale up happens?
What happens outside Europe?
Gas and decarbonisation
Sep 2018

13. How can gas contribute to the achievement of EU climate targets?
Martin Lambert
Senior Research Fellow
Energy post brussels debate 27th Sept 2018
Natural Gas Programme

14. Backup slides

15. Biogas Chain Overview
Source: UK Anaerobic Digestion Portal

16. Thermo-Chemical Route to Bio-SNG
Source: UK National Grid
Thermo-chemical route has been at R&D stage for many years and is not yet deployed commercially

17. Power to Gas (P2G) at early stage of development

18. Wide range of renewable gas cost estimates
High
Low
TTF