1. Outlook on the Global Trading System in 2015
Taeho Bark
Graduate School of International Studies
Seoul National University
January 29, 2015
Prepared for 2015 CommonWealth Economic Forum

2. 1. Uncertain Global Trading System
The multilateral trading system under the WTO is facing unprecedented challenges despite the success achieved at the Bali MC9 in December 2013
- The WTO is also becoming increasingly outdated as it could not keep up with
the rapidly changing global trading environment
At the same time, regionalism is rising around the world
- The proliferation of the RTAs tends to divert attentions as well as human
resources from the multilateral trade negotiations

3. 2. The Year 2015 for the Global Trading System
The year 2015 is extremely important for the global trading system
- April 15th marks the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the WTO
- The 10th Ministerial Conference of the WTO will be held in Kenya in December
With regard to the global trading system, issues in 2015 will be similar to those of previous years
- The WTO’s continuous efforts to promote multilateralism and further pushes
for major Mega-RTAs will be made simultaneously throughout the year

4. 3. The WTO’s Agenda in 2015
To start implementing the trade facilitation agreement and
prepare the work program for the remaining Doha Round
issues
Now is the time for the WTO members to discuss frankly
about the future of the Doha Round
- They should consider every potential options including the declaration of the
Doha Round’s failure
- The mini Ministerial Conference can be held before the summer break

5. 4. The Plurilateral Negotiations
Relevant parties will make efforts to conclude the ongoing plurilateral negotiations on Information Technology Agreement (ITA-II) and Trade in Services Agreement (TISA)
- If they are successfully concluded, uncertainties in the global trading system
will be reduced to some extent
In the case of TISA, participants should discuss ways to effectively multilateralize the agreement

6. 5. Outlook on the Mega-RTAs (1)
None of the recently launched Mega-RTAs has been concluded
The TPP seems to have made most progress
- Some experts predict that the TPP could be completed within the first half of
this year
- The US and Japan have yet to make final compromises on several sensitive
products
- Once concluded, it would be essential to allow new members to join,
particularly East Asian economies with great economic potentials

7. 5. Outlook on the Mega-RTAs (2)
The slowly moving RCEP may not be able to achieve its 2015 deadline
The CJK FTA has not made further progress due to political conflicts in North East Asia
To generate substantial economic benefits, both the RCEP and CJK FTA negotiations should aim for high-quality RTAs

8. 5. Outlook on the Mega-RTAs (3)
The TTIP negotiations have been moving slowly so far
The US and the EU may accelerate the TTIP negotiations this year
If concluded, it would become the largest RTA in the world
The TTIP may focus more on the convergence of regulations rather than the elimination of trade barriers
- If regulatory convergence is achieved through the TTIP, it will provide a
valuable precedent for the multilateral trading system to follow

9. 6. The Relations between Multilateralism and Regionalism
Multilateralism and regionalism will coexist and move forward in parallel
- In such a difficult economic environment, they seem to be sharing
burdens rather than competing against one another
The ongoing Mega-RTAs should be pursued to supplement the multilateral trading system
The WTO’s Committee on RTAs (CRTA) should strengthen its role in collecting and disseminating information on the Mega-RTAs

10. 7. Outlook of the Global Trading System in 2015 (1)
The outlook of the global trading system will continue to be uncertain in 2015
Moreover, trade officials are losing confidence in their work and start to show symptoms of negotiation fatigue
The global trading system faces the most serious crisis since the establishment of the WTO 20 years ago
- The global trading system is at a crossroads

11. 7. Outlook of the Global Trading System in 2015 (2)
Depending on the efforts made in 2015, the global trading system could either seize a momentum to revitalize or collapse
- If the WTO cannot find viable solutions to the remaining
issues of the Doha Round, the multilateral trading system will
suffer from irreversible damages to its credibility
- The global trading system will then be dominated by regional
agreements causing huge costs to the world economy

12. 8. Importance of Political Leadership
All nations must understand the far-reaching implications of the failure of the global trading system, particularly the multilateral trading system
In this context, it is crucial to draw political leaders’ attention on the current global trading environment
We should persuade politicians to exert their political leadership by reminding them that the failure to sustain the multilateral trading system will generate enormous costs