1. CAS-XV TECO view from the back of the room David Burridge WMO THORPEX International Programme Office

2. Causes of improvements to NWP (1979 – 2009)
For large-scale variables, NWP systems are improving by 1 day of predictive skill per decade. In priority order, this has been due to:
Model improvements, especially resolution.
Careful use of forecast & observations, allowing for their information content and errors - achieved by variational assimilation e.g. of satellite radiances.
4D-Var.
Better observations.

3. In more detail
Steady improvements in skill in traditional measures such as 500hPa geopotential (~1 day per decade). However in weather parameters such as precipitation, cloud etc, and in the Tropics progress is more rapid (~ 1 day per 7 years).
Improvement in ocean-wave prediction.
Increased resolution and improvement in “physics” for all systems
Also Ensemble systems are improving at ~1 day per 7 years.
Much improved representation and forecasting of severe weather in general – mid-latitude systems, tropical cyclones .....
Advanced assimilation methods that enable more effective use of vast amounts of satellite data
Encouraging progress in analysing and forecasting atmospheric composition
Development observations in process studies leading to increasingly sophisticated parametrizations including field experiments
Successful FDPs and RDPs

4. Future - increasing capacity building
Organization of training sessions on a regional basis as a means to increase involvement in prediction systems, product development and use – general forecasting, high impact weather, societal and economic applications
Training also needs to include training on verification techniques and use of ensemble prediction
Emphasis on regional problems – severe weather, cyclones, heavy rainfall, hydrology …….
Instructors need to include regional examples
Language
A key aspect of the training sessions was the inclusion of a subset of instructors capable of lecturing in Spanish. Knowledge of Portuguese would also be helpful. To make this happen, a few select scientists from S. America may need to be trained as instructors prior to this training.� Such training of instructors would leave a strong legacy of the workshop.

5. Future - science WWRP Strategic Plan
Basic modelling issues – resolution and parametrization
Handling of the tropics particularly organised convection, tropical cyclones and extra-tropical transition and interactions - YOTC
The required initial conditions and implied observational coverage – assimilation (scalability and formulation), detection of systems in their early development, design of appropriate field and targeting experiments & at least preserving what data we currently have
Improving the processing and uses of ensemble predictions
Sound FDPs and RDPs - collaboration with CBS
Seamless prediction of weather, surface, hydrology, ocean-surface conditions and atmospheric composition from a few hours to a season ahead - collaboration with WCRP
Training – prediction systems, verification & product use/development including Ensemble Prediction
Societal and economic applications developing